Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/21. Oct 16 to Oct 22 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries (21 analyzed in the thread)
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/21. Austria is experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality.

3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

4/21. France will be experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

5/21. Germany will be experiencing a rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity out of its safety zone at medium levels, with increasing although still very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

6/21. The Netherlands will be facing one of the most worrying and rapid surge in Western Europe in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which will continue to increase at very high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

7/21. The UK will be experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, increasing at a slower pace than last weeks, at high levels, with increasing medium to high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

8/21. Portugal is experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with medium levels of mortality.

9/21. Turkey reports a plateau at low levels of #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low levels of mortality, foreseen to remain stable for 7 more days.

10/21. South Africa has successfully controlled its #COVID19 winter wave, and is foreseen to remain in its safety zone, although with persisting high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

11/21. Israel will be experiencing a decline in its #COVID19 epidemic activityc, although currrently at very high level, foreseen to reach high and then medium levels, with remaining high levels of mortality, during the 7 upcoming days.

12/21. Russia will be experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.

13/21. Japan is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

14/21. India is foreseen to be landing in its #COVID19 safety zone, with low reported rates of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.

15/21. Canada will experience a worrying and rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at medium levels, with increasing although low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

16/21. The USA is foreseen to see its #COVID19 case incidence rising at high level of activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
More details and risk map on:

https://twitter.com/FLAHAULT/status/1314844315496189954?s=20

(with detailed analyses for 5 states)

17/21. Uruguay is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

18/21. Colombia seems experiencing again a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with high levels of mortality, as foreseen for 7 more days.

19/21. Peru is controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, very slowly landing towards its saftety zone, with remaining high levels of mortality.

20/21. Argentina seems now plateauing at the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels with increasing alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

21/21. Australia and New Zealand have both successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 second epidemic waves. They will remain within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.

22/21
Switzerland and Spain which did not report to ECDC during the week-end, are replaced by Austria and Portugal up to Friday.

23/21
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50