1/21. Oct 17 to Oct 23 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries (21 analyzed in the thread)
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

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2/21. Switzerland will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with increasing although still low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
4/21. France will be experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
5/21. Germany will be experiencing a rapid surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity out of its safety zone at medium levels, with increasing although still very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
6/21. The Netherlands will be facing one of the most worrying surge in Western Europe in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, which will continue to increase at very high levels, with increasing medium to high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
7/21. The UK will be experiencing a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, increasing at a slower pace than last weeks, at high levels, with increasing medium to high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
8/21. Spain is experiencing high levels in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with high levels of mortality.
Note: due to discontinuity in reporting to ECDC, 7-day forecasting are made not reliable.
9/21. Turkey reports a plateau at low levels of #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low levels of mortality, foreseen to remain stable for 7 more days.
10/21. South Africa has successfully controlled its #COVID19 winter wave, and is foreseen to remain in its safety zone, although with persisting high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
11/21. Israel is foreseen to be controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activityc, which may reach the safety zone by mid-week, with remaining high levels of mortality, during the 7 upcoming days.
12/21. Russia will be experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.
13/21. Japan is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
14/21. India is foreseen to be landing in its #COVID19 safety zone early next week, with low to very low reported rates of mortality, in the 7 upcoming days.
15/21. Canada will experience a surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at medium levels, with increasing although low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
16/21. The USA is foreseen to see its #COVID19 case incidence rising at high level of activity, with high levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
More details and risk map on:

(with detailed analyses for 5 states)
17/21. Uruguay is foreseen to remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with very low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
18/21. Colombia seems experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels, plateauing at high levels of mortality, as foreseen for 7 more days.
19/21. Peru is on the way of controlling its #COVID19 epidemic activity, plateauing at medium levels, with medium levels of mortality, for the 7 upcoming days.
20/21. Argentina is plateauing after having reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, at high levels with increasing alarming levels of mortality, for 7 more days.
21/21. Australia and New Zealand have both successfully controlled their winter #COVID19 second epidemic waves. They will remain within their safety zone, with very low mortality rates, for 7 more days.
22/21
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
Mortality assessment:
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50

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More from @FLAHAULT

17 Oct
1/21. Oct 18 to Oct 24 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries (21 analyzed in the thread)
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Switzerland will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 22 tweets
17 Oct
1/8 - “There is overwhelming evidence that inhalation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (#SARSCoV2) represents a major transmission route for coronavirus disease 2019 (#COVID19)
science.sciencemag.org/content/370/65…
2/8 - “We must clarify the terminology to distinguish between aerosols and droplets using a size threshold of 100 µm, not the historical 5 µm. This size more effectively separates their aerodynamic behavior, ability to be inhaled, and efficacy of interventions.”
3/8 - “Viruses in droplets (larger than 100 µm) typically fall to the ground in seconds within 2 m of the source and can be sprayed like tiny cannonballs onto nearby individuals. Because of their limited travel range, physical distancing reduces exposure to these droplets.”
Read 8 tweets
17 Oct
1/6. The USA, Oct. 17 to 23 - Will be experiencing a rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with high-medium mortality for 7 more days.
New risk map and 5 states detailed.
Data: Johns Hopkins Univ.
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/6. New York will be plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at medium levels, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. A situation apparently better controlled than currently in Western Europe. ImageImage
3/6. Texas will be plateauing at high level of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with decreasing although still high levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
17 Oct
1/5 - Un changement de stratégie de recherche des contacts s’impose en urgence. À Genève on ne trace les contacts jusqu’à maximum 48h avant les premiers symptômes (“forward tracing”recherche prospective des contacts). Mais ce n’est pas assez performant de faire ainsi...
2/5 - ...Il faut plutôt rechercher en priorité dans les 12-14 derniers jours quels ont pu être le ou les contact(s) contaminant(s) et s’arrêter d’abord sur celui (ou ceux) qui aurai(en)t pu être à l’origine d’une super-propagation (megaclusters). Et se focaliser sur ceux-là...
3/5 - Exercice pratique : Mme X, 30 ans, détectée positive. Elle vit seule, prend le bus 2 jours/sem pdt environ 25 min pour aller au travail, précautionneuse, masquée.
Les questions à poser : avez vous été à la cafétéria, restaurant, bar, théâtre,cinéma,culte,club de sport,...?
Read 5 tweets
15 Oct
1/21. Oct 16 to Oct 22 - #COVID19 Daily Epidemic Forecasting for 209 countries (21 analyzed in the thread)
Data: @ECDC_EU coronavirus.jhu.edu

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…

Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/21. Austria is experiencing a worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high levels, with increasing medium levels of mortality. ImageImage
3/21. Italy will be experiencing a rapid and worrying surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity at high level, with increasing low levels of mortality, for 7 more days. ImageImage
Read 23 tweets
12 Oct
1/8 - Il y a deux modalités de traçage des contacts:
a) Traçage prospectif, classique, on recherche les contacts du cas;
b) Traçage rétrospectif,”à la japonaise”,on recherche qui a contaminé le cas.
La priorité des priorités c’est de privilégier b) et ne faire a) que si on peut.
2/8 - Le fondement théorique vient du paramètre k de dispersion, élevé pour la grippe (de dynamique homogène) et faible pour le #SARSCoV2 dont la dynamique est hétérogène, émerge en clusters et en événements super-propagateurs: 10 à 20% des contaminations drive toute la pandémie.
3/8 - Si 80-90% des cas contaminent 0 ou 1 cas, on n’a pas à se fatiguer à tracer leurs contacts. Ils ne nous inquiètent pas. En revanche, il faut tout mettre en œuvre pour stopper la propagation causée par les 10 ou 20% restants, à commencer par les identifier. Comment faire ?
Read 8 tweets

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