Thread by @pmdfoster

End of a long week in #Brexit world. But next week, after this week's chest-beating will be key.

Can this move now? Or is it stuck? It's not about fish, ultimately, it's about LPF/Governance and what 'strings' the UK can accept in exchange for a 'zero/zero' FTA. /1

So @BorisJohnson say he "only wants Canada-style" deal, but actually CETA took years to negotiate because it was a line-by-line deal, with tariffs and quotas that opens a can of worms on competing EU27 interest. The UK actually wants a quick n dirty zero/zero deal. So.../2

@BorisJohnson By opting not to extend #Brexit transition period, that "real" Canada-like FTA is off the table.

The squeeze is on and while the EU will move on fish, it will ultimately only do a deal with the "commensurate" (see Political Declaration) levels of LPF. And there lies the row. /3

@BorisJohnson There is still a decent gap between two sides on what is "commensurate", not helped by the trust issues raised by UK decision to re-write Withdrawal Agreement (Irish Protocol), and those "strings" the EU wants attaching are neuralgic to UK Brexit believers /4

@BorisJohnson So what now?

Well, we wait and see if next weeks "talks" are real and can build on whats already been agreed on State Aid, where progress does seem to have been made. But both sides have to get "real".

If not, we're stuck and risk is this all peters out into no deal /5

@BorisJohnson Given how much of the 'nuts n bolts' has already been agreed or is being agreed (on ro-ro traffic, and trucking permits and blah, blah) it would be almost inconceivable that that would should be chucked away, or at least put on 'ice' by a no deal /6

@BorisJohnson But on the really core LPF/governance stuff the EU believes that it has Johnson in a corner (partly of his own making) and ultimately assumes he'll have to concede; and frankly, given #COVID__19 and economy, they may be right. /7

@BorisJohnson But as we saw this week, there are dangers in over-estimating how far the UK side will go. There really should be a deal; but that doesn't mean this can't all go wrong. (And UKIM move means if it does, it'll be messy).

On that cheery note mes #Brexit braves, bon weekend. ENDS