End of a long week in #Brexit world. But next week, after this week's chest-beating will be key.

Can this move now? Or is it stuck? It's not about fish, ultimately, it's about LPF/Governance and what 'strings' the UK can accept in exchange for a 'zero/zero' FTA. /1
So @BorisJohnson say he "only wants Canada-style" deal, but actually CETA took years to negotiate because it was a line-by-line deal, with tariffs and quotas that opens a can of worms on competing EU27 interest. The UK actually wants a quick n dirty zero/zero deal. So.../2
@BorisJohnson By opting not to extend #Brexit transition period, that "real" Canada-like FTA is off the table.

The squeeze is on and while the EU will move on fish, it will ultimately only do a deal with the "commensurate" (see Political Declaration) levels of LPF. And there lies the row. /3
@BorisJohnson There is still a decent gap between two sides on what is "commensurate", not helped by the trust issues raised by UK decision to re-write Withdrawal Agreement (Irish Protocol), and those "strings" the EU wants attaching are neuralgic to UK Brexit believers /4
@BorisJohnson So what now?

Well, we wait and see if next weeks "talks" are real and can build on whats already been agreed on State Aid, where progress does seem to have been made. But both sides have to get "real".

If not, we're stuck and risk is this all peters out into no deal /5
@BorisJohnson Given how much of the 'nuts n bolts' has already been agreed or is being agreed (on ro-ro traffic, and trucking permits and blah, blah) it would be almost inconceivable that that would should be chucked away, or at least put on 'ice' by a no deal /6
@BorisJohnson But on the really core LPF/governance stuff the EU believes that it has Johnson in a corner (partly of his own making) and ultimately assumes he'll have to concede; and frankly, given #COVID__19 and economy, they may be right. /7
@BorisJohnson But as we saw this week, there are dangers in over-estimating how far the UK side will go. There really should be a deal; but that doesn't mean this can't all go wrong. (And UKIM move means if it does, it'll be messy).

On that cheery note mes #Brexit braves, bon weekend. ENDS

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More from @pmdfoster

15 Oct
Right. We are getting to the twitchy bit now. Who will fold first as the #Brexit crucible intensifies?

The EU side appears to bet that Boris Johnson will. But are they right?

Latest @FT #Brexit briefing is out 1/thread

@FT First the status update. Another weeks of incremental nothingburger talks. Another call between @BorisJohnson and @vonderleyen with both sides expressing "disappointment" that not enough moves made on fish/LPF/governance to get the deal Mr Johnson wanted by #EUCO. /2
@FT @BorisJohnson @vonderleyen EU leaders have met and basically shrugged - original instruction to @MichelBarnier to "intensify" talks diluted to "continue" and clear that up to UK to "make the necessary moves" to get a deal.

Well guess what? The UK say the same. So what now??? /3
Read 20 tweets
13 Oct
NEW: Where EU chemicals Assoc boss Marco Mensink @MMens and UK's Assoc Simon Marsh @See_Chem_Bus warn of coming "double whammy" to chemicals industry from #Brexit and new EU rules - now accepting deal will be v thin. via @ft w @Michael_Pooler

@MMens @See_Chem_Bus @FT @Michael_Pooler Both bosses now seem to accept that a data-sharing deal to enable UK to build parallel REACH chemicals database won't happen - but still want decent Annex in FTA on chemicals to try and mitigate damage - details on dual registration regime here/2

@MMens @See_Chem_Bus @FT @Michael_Pooler The immediate issue is that UK companies will need a EU "only representative" for trade in EU (not clear that high % yet done this) which is worrying @MMens and others.../3
Read 6 tweets
13 Oct
Lord Agnew to @CommonsTreasury says "I cannot give you a date" when the Northern Ireland border operating model will be published. Admits "I am worried about it" given sensitivities. #Brexit

@CommonsTreasury Adds 200 NI businesses have registered for the govt £200m Trader Support Service, out of 10,000 traders that need to be reached by "D-Day".

Reasonably confident they'll get rest signed up, but again admits worried. /2
@CommonsTreasury Explains delay in announcing TSS because govt was "agonising" over monopolising a service that should be provided by private sector. Admits, again "I am very worried about it." [Being ready] /3
Read 12 tweets
12 Oct
NEW: @BorisJohnson has said he wants to to end the “pointless, snooty, and frankly vacuous” distinction between technical/academic education... we've been here before...so will it be different this time? 1/thread

@BorisJohnson First the speech itself (worth quick read) but an important statement of intent; sends signal (as insider tells me) that Augar Review is "very much live" - or rather resuscitated after @theresa_may
era /2

@BorisJohnson @theresa_may BUT as Sir Chris Husbands @Hallam_VC says the revealed preference of last 50 years is that kids want to do three-year degrees...the question is whether the govt can change the 'terms of trade' in the HE/FE marketplace. /3
Read 19 tweets
9 Oct
A third of businesses still believe the #Brexit transition period will be extended says @cabinetofficeuk perm sec - this has always been big issue with preps: however good they are, they must be communicated effectively to business /1

@cabinetofficeuk And the fact that a third of businesses still think there will be an extension just shows you how hard that is - some are just busy with #COVID19 others as Chisolm says just don't believe warnings any more after all the false starts/2
@cabinetofficeuk And as we've seen with trying to get industry to hire and train customs agents, the govt/whitehall can't operate in a vacuum.

No good just launching a £50m grant scheme without trying to understand industry views of risk & appetite to hire during #COVID19 times /3
Read 7 tweets
5 Oct
A worrying bellwether for 'Global Britain'? Analysis of Horizon2020 grants by @ben_osswald
@jochenpierk shows that UK business international collaborations via the program DOWN by nearly 50% - while other EU nations are UP - my latest via @ft /2

@ben_osswald @jochenpierk @FT You can read the whole paper here, but below is a key chart for what they found on business collaborations - UK had 15,900 international research partners in Europe in 2016...that figure had fallen to 8,300 by 2019 /2

@ben_osswald @jochenpierk @FT At the same time - see raw data table below - collaboration of the three major advanced EU economies (France, Germany, Italy) all went up by between a third and a quarter. /3
Read 8 tweets

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