Willy Woo Profile picture
18 Oct, 10 tweets, 5 min read
I was going to tweet something tongue-in-cheek about #gold's inflation bug where new supply rains down on the planet unchecked by their miners.

Instead I'll do a researched thread on space mining, it's talked about, but gold-bugs don't understand its viability and timeline.

10% of near Earth Asteroids are more accessible than the moon. Accessibility is measured in energy terms (delta-v, a unit of speed), essentially it's the speed a rocket needs to hurl a probe / mining equipment to intercept the destination.
Delta-v energy requirements (km/s):

9.6 Earth -> LEO (low earth orbit)
6.4 LEO -> Lunar surface
10.7 LEO -> Mars surface

Less than 6.4 from LEO to 10% of near earth asteroids. And to 1.0 - 2.0 to get materials back to Earth.
Mining the solar system is limited by the cost of delta-v energy imparted by our rockets.

It takes a lot of energy to hurl mining gear into space.

Remember the moon rocket? Only a tiny part at the top was hurled into space, the rest was burned to get it there.
The cost of delta-v is exponentially reducing.

Here's a 2018 chart of projected launch costs (LEO = 9.6 km/s).

We are actually *ahead* of this curve, SpaceX's Starship is expecting a cost of $10 per kg, previously not expected until 2050. It brings us forward 2 decades.
$500-$1000 per kg LEO is seen as cost threshold for starting large scale commercial activity in orbit. We are crossing this threshold NOW.

($10 soon.)

The resources out there is enough to support a quadrillion people.

The clock is ticking.
As large scale commercial industry in orbit starts to develop, it means accessing gold further out is within reach.

Speculative markets always preemptively price things in. It's not a 50 years away thing, the foundations of a large scale space industry is happening today.
This is for your followers @PeterSchiff :)

And also a riff off the back of the @stoolpresidente and @tylerwinklevoss / @cameron discussion on gold mining. The speculative price impact on gold (not the actual mining) is obviously closer than anyone is thinking.
To be absolutely pedantic I should correct this statement.

$200k is all we need in fuel to get to LEO for a large rocket like a F9 which can get 22800 kg to LEO. We typically throw away $100m-500m of rocket gear with that launch. It’s a reusability issue; and it’s being solved.

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More from @woonomic

17 Oct

This is short term technical analysis instead of my normal fundamentals; be warned short term analysis is much lower reliability, more for casino players.

SUMMARY: I suspect the last CME gap (what's left of it in green) may get filled.
Peering into price action happening at spot exchanges, I'm seeing hidden distribution. There's volume sell off that's not yet reflected in price.

Upper pane is price, lower pane is my own view of what's really happening on spot exchanges.
Then there happens to be this fractal resemblence to a Wyckoffian Distribution (sell-off pattern).
Read 5 tweets
16 Oct
A case for SPX bull.

SP500 tracks the top 500 large cap stocks.

All highly successful companies are tech companies of their day, new tech gains a leveraged advantage over competitors.

Internet tech is increasingly dominant...
Let's look at the make up of the top 10

1 Apple
2 Microsoft
3 Amazon
4 Facebook
5 Google (A shares)
6 Google (C)
7 Berkshire Hathaway
8 Johnson & Johnson
9 Visa
10 Procter & Gamble

Notice the dominance of tech? Visa is tech also in that it facilitates Internet transactions.
The current pandemic has the impact of driving businesses into HIGHER efficiency, not lower.

Zoom vs Jet travel
Your lounge vs the business lounge
Digitisation of business processes needed for location independence

Even if you're bricks and mortars you now get more efficient.
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
NVT Ratio, measures Bitcoin's ratio of investor activity to capitalization. I first described it as Bitcoin's equivalent of a PE Ratio.

Presently NVT is at undervaluation levels equivalent to the COVID19 white swan price bottom. Very bullish.
“Investor activity” is predicated on on-chain volume. This is because when BTC moves between wallets between two different participants, we assume there was a payment for it off-chain (fiat or alt-coin). It’s an imperfect measure but approximates what’s going on.
As more volume continues to trend off chain into layer-2, NVT drifts higher as investment activity becomes invisible to the chain. I tried many methods, the best was simple long term moving averages to track the new zones of buy and sell. It works if the L2 trend is gradual.
Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
This is my study of Bitcoin's market cap gain per dollar of net capital captured. It's presently sitting at $3.30 of price gain per dollar invested.

Some interesting findings below...

Reflectivity is increasing over each macro cycle! This is the tendency of HODLers to hold onto their coins harder as price increases.
I had expected reflexivity to increase during the mania phase of BULL markets, but it looks quite constant from the last two cycles.

This tells us that mania phases are driven by equally significant capital instead side effects of supply drying up.
Read 6 tweets
9 Oct
I'm retracting this statement. It was originally based on estimates by @fundstrat for every dollar going into "crypto" in 2018.

It doesn't look like the right number for BTC from a quick glance at the data. BTC is very liquid.

Here I'll lay a method to estimate it.
Realised cap approximates the total capital current investors paid for their coins by peering into the blockchain and using the time (and therefore price) at which the coins moved into their wallets.

Right now Bitcoin's cap is $202b for $116b of capital invested.
So all-time impact is $1.70 per dollar invested.

For the impact of the latest dollar, we need to take the current slope of the market cap (change in cap) and divide by the latest slope of the realised cap (change in money invested).

Depending on market phases it changes a lot.
Read 5 tweets
7 Oct
When coins on spot exchanges drop, it's a sign that new buyers are coming in to scoop coins off the markets and moving them into cold storage HODL, we are seeing new HODLers right now. Very macro bullish.
It's even more exaggerated with global exchanges.
First scoop up of coins coincided with WSJ press coverage of Bitcoin as a legitimate investment vehicle off the back of the Winklevoss ETF news. It fueled the 2017 bull market.

The latest coincides with @michael_saylor's timeline of research into buying Bitcoin for $MSTR.
Read 5 tweets

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