I posted this map of the BTC supply distribution, but many asked "but what does this mean?".

Well, it says quite a lot, this is the whole ecosystem talking to us. Since people didn't see what I though was in plain sight, I'll break it down and add a bit more colour.

1) Most importantly.

Bitcoin continues to distribute coins evenly. Publicly held and retail entities continue to gain more control of the supply while whales are reducing their control.

Remember the gold standard failed as a monetary standard due to centralisation of the supply
2) Retail drives macro cycles. When retail stack their sats at an increased rate, like they are doing right now, it's the fundamentals saying we are in the middle of a bull market.

I repeat; middle of a bull market. Traders in disbelief 2 months ago when this data was shown.
3) Whales think coins are cheap right now.

Whales are opportunists. They're in a decade long diversification plan selling into every bull market having made their money.

But they do take the opportunity to buy when they see a strong rally ahead, like right now.
4) Publicly held coins show bullishness.

Corporates are long term holds, they are increasing.

Speculative inventories at exchanges are depleting as long term buyers step in.

ETFs remain flat, mainly because of the colossal GBTC fee (6600 BTC fees deducted and sold since Feb).
Data sources below.

On-chain forensics: @glassnode
ETFs: @glassnode & @woonomic
Corporates: @woonomic (via company reporting)

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More from @woonomic

5 Sep
Supply Shock valuation model.

Uses a look-back algo to determine what the market priced BTC at prior demand and supply situations.

Currently puts BTC above $55k.

It's conservative as one of the SS metrics, exchange SS, is now above all-time-high so no look-back is possible.
Interpolated best fit line.
Read 4 tweets
10 Aug
Ethereum supply shock well and truly at all time highs.

Looks like the market overpriced it in May but is probably underpricing it July / August.
Switching to an oscillator view of this, it's moving out of its no-brainer buy zone with the latest rally. But importantly, despite short term technicals being quite warm, it's far from over-bought on fundamentals.
On-chain data by @glassnode.

Note: the latest supply burn from EIP-1559 is not accounted for in Glassnode data. But it should not impact these metrics just yet (~0.01% impact on this indicator for now). Glassnode will be rolling in EIP-1559 burn data soon.
Read 5 tweets
6 Aug
Just a matter of patience and time before $42k breaks.

Strong HODLers, the Rick Astleys of this world, have been taking this opportunity to scoop large amounts of coinage while we're under the resistance ceiling. Image
Mid-macro view:
90 day moving average of coins moving to Mr Astley about to cross bullish. Image
The movement of coins to and from Mr Astley brought to you via forensic clustering of on-chain data courtesy of @glassnode.
Read 4 tweets
1 Aug
The Bitcoin Forecast #024, The Buyers Bazaar is out. please check your inboxes and spam filters or read it online.

Some charts from #023... some of which are still relevant.

User growth is going parabolic.
Supply Shock divergence is in play, hence "Squeezy Times".
Read 6 tweets
1 Aug
The 3 laws of #Bitcoin:

1) “This is good for Bitcoin”
2) “Bitcoin fixes this”
3) “There is no top, Laura”
Read 4 tweets
22 Jul
A longitudinal study of #Bitcoin's supply distribution since the genesis block.

Summary: Bitcoin continues a 12 year trend of distributing evenly. Small holders are a rising force.

(Includes new data unseen before.)
Before I continue, all the data used in this study are actual entities, not addresses.

Addresses are clustered forensically to resolve to individual participants.

In some cases they monitored on-chain entities (e.g. exchanges) in other cases from financial reporting (e.g. ETFs)
Whales (1000+ BTC in wealth) continue to distribute their coins while minnows are increasingly gaining more of the supply (0-10 BTC).
Read 13 tweets

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