Ethereum supply shock well and truly at all time highs.

Looks like the market overpriced it in May but is probably underpricing it July / August.
Switching to an oscillator view of this, it's moving out of its no-brainer buy zone with the latest rally. But importantly, despite short term technicals being quite warm, it's far from over-bought on fundamentals.
On-chain data by @glassnode.

Note: the latest supply burn from EIP-1559 is not accounted for in Glassnode data. But it should not impact these metrics just yet (~0.01% impact on this indicator for now). Glassnode will be rolling in EIP-1559 burn data soon.
PS. Enjoyed posting this for the reactions.

Many think I'm a maximalist. I'm not, I happily trade any crypto-asset.

I'm a maxi in regards to #Bitcoin winning the monetary standard.

#Ethereum is very liquid and tradable, it has many platform competitors which I also trade.
I doubt we'll have one single winner in the platform wars.

We use many platforms in tech according to changing needs. You're reading this on Twitter which was a simple Ruby app and now uses a family of platforms to deliver at scale.

USDC uses ETH, SOL, etc. Migration is common.

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More from @woonomic

6 Aug
Just a matter of patience and time before $42k breaks.

Strong HODLers, the Rick Astleys of this world, have been taking this opportunity to scoop large amounts of coinage while we're under the resistance ceiling. Image
Mid-macro view:
90 day moving average of coins moving to Mr Astley about to cross bullish. Image
The movement of coins to and from Mr Astley brought to you via forensic clustering of on-chain data courtesy of @glassnode.
Read 4 tweets
1 Aug
The Bitcoin Forecast #024, The Buyers Bazaar is out. please check your inboxes and spam filters or read it online.

willywoo.substack.com/p/024-the-buye…
Some charts from #023... some of which are still relevant.

User growth is going parabolic.
Supply Shock divergence is in play, hence "Squeezy Times".
Read 6 tweets
1 Aug
The 3 laws of #Bitcoin:

1) “This is good for Bitcoin”
2) “Bitcoin fixes this”
3) “There is no top, Laura”
Read 4 tweets
22 Jul
A longitudinal study of #Bitcoin's supply distribution since the genesis block.

Summary: Bitcoin continues a 12 year trend of distributing evenly. Small holders are a rising force.

(Includes new data unseen before.)
Before I continue, all the data used in this study are actual entities, not addresses.

Addresses are clustered forensically to resolve to individual participants.

In some cases they monitored on-chain entities (e.g. exchanges) in other cases from financial reporting (e.g. ETFs)
Whales (1000+ BTC in wealth) continue to distribute their coins while minnows are increasingly gaining more of the supply (0-10 BTC).
Read 13 tweets
20 Jul
Wee little fishies are going parabolic.

This is the ratio of supply held by holders of 0-10 BTC vs 100+ BTC (Dolphins to Humpback Whales).

PS. Little guys hold 32% of what the big guys hold, and that does even not include their loot on exchanges or ETFs.
This is what it looked like in the 2017 bull market.
And the 2013 bull market.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jul
HUGE misunderstandings arising from Active Addresses vs Entities.

Entities: Estimates users via on-chain forensics

Active Addresses: Impacted by user growth, wallet activity (trade conditions), mempool congestion (drops in hash rate), fees spamming.
Chart: Unprecedented growth of users joining the network during this price dip while active addresses plummet.

-> It's a time of low volatility (less traders sending coins between exchanges to trade) and at a time when the network hash rate experienced The Great China Migration.
Any analysis using active addresses in this time where China tripped the power cord in April (power outages) and a historic banning of miners in May/June will be stupidly flawed.
Read 7 tweets

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