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Willy Woo Profile picture
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5 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
#bitcoin in public company treasuries has exceeded 200,000 BTC.

Live chart: charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-etf-co…
Added: @exodus_io (ticker: EXOD)
Updated: Galaxy Digital, Hut8Mining, Riot Blockchain, Marathon, Bitfarms

Not all Q4 quarterly filings have been updated so these numbers are expected to be the conservative lower bound.
Contribute new data via the Google spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
FWIW, Microstrategy looks very dominant as a single treasury until your realise that other corporates likely hold their BTC via Microstrategy convertible bonds.

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More from @woonomic

Willy Woo Profile picture
29 Sep
Deep inside baseball for on-chain analysts...

This is @glassnode's Illiquid Supply adjusted for drift.

The implication is that the raw data will give overly bullish signals, in reality we are NOT at all time highs of Illiquid Supply.
Primer... there's 3 classification of owners:

Illiquid - coins owned by "Rick Astley", the people who buy without much selling activity.

Liquid - coins owned by HODLers who buy and sell

Highly Liquid - coins owner by highly speculative people who mainly trade
The reason why Illiquid Supply is over estimated lies in how Illiquid Supply is derived.

It uses heuristics to cluster wallet addresses together into distinct owners (entities).

As more data comes in, more knowledge comes to light...
Read 9 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
13 Sep
I posted this map of the BTC supply distribution, but many asked "but what does this mean?".

Well, it says quite a lot, this is the whole ecosystem talking to us. Since people didn't see what I though was in plain sight, I'll break it down and add a bit more colour.

👇
1) Most importantly.

Bitcoin continues to distribute coins evenly. Publicly held and retail entities continue to gain more control of the supply while whales are reducing their control.

Remember the gold standard failed as a monetary standard due to centralisation of the supply
2) Retail drives macro cycles. When retail stack their sats at an increased rate, like they are doing right now, it's the fundamentals saying we are in the middle of a bull market.

I repeat; middle of a bull market. Traders in disbelief 2 months ago when this data was shown.
Read 6 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
5 Sep
Supply Shock valuation model.

Uses a look-back algo to determine what the market priced BTC at prior demand and supply situations.

Currently puts BTC above $55k.

It's conservative as one of the SS metrics, exchange SS, is now above all-time-high so no look-back is possible.
Interpolated best fit line.
More details here.

woobull.com/quantifying-su…
Read 4 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
10 Aug
Ethereum supply shock well and truly at all time highs.

Looks like the market overpriced it in May but is probably underpricing it July / August.
Switching to an oscillator view of this, it's moving out of its no-brainer buy zone with the latest rally. But importantly, despite short term technicals being quite warm, it's far from over-bought on fundamentals.
On-chain data by @glassnode.

Note: the latest supply burn from EIP-1559 is not accounted for in Glassnode data. But it should not impact these metrics just yet (~0.01% impact on this indicator for now). Glassnode will be rolling in EIP-1559 burn data soon.
Read 5 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
6 Aug
Just a matter of patience and time before $42k breaks.

Strong HODLers, the Rick Astleys of this world, have been taking this opportunity to scoop large amounts of coinage while we're under the resistance ceiling. Image
Mid-macro view:
90 day moving average of coins moving to Mr Astley about to cross bullish. Image
The movement of coins to and from Mr Astley brought to you via forensic clustering of on-chain data courtesy of @glassnode.
Read 4 tweets
Willy Woo Profile picture
1 Aug
The Bitcoin Forecast #024, The Buyers Bazaar is out. please check your inboxes and spam filters or read it online.

willywoo.substack.com/p/024-the-buye…
Some charts from #023... some of which are still relevant.

User growth is going parabolic.
Supply Shock divergence is in play, hence "Squeezy Times".
Read 6 tweets

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