Thread by @ThyConsigliori

22 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Interesting. Very Interesting. A Big Day of Chart Updates.

I gotta say, I'm thinking some executives over at Dornsife are smacking their foreheads over the decision to include all these new charts! Here's today's data.

2) As I promised, I have been keeping up with the data daily, but only report on interesting new developments. Well, I saw yesterday that we were heading into interesting territory and yep, sure enough, today did not disappoint! Wait for it...

3) Nodding my head with analytical pride, just look at this chart. And, we have some doozies to come! This is the best.

Don't you just LOVE it when a good theory proves right? Wow, what a rush. Look at this, and tell me if you follow, will you?

4) We're now going to go slow. And, by the way, not only will this be a long thread, I will NOT be able to get it done before my business day begins. So, I'll pop in and out as needed. Okay...Periodicity Problem? Yeah. It's fun enough to follow out.

5) In 2016, Dornsife polled its entire sampling every week, 1/7th per day. This year, doubling their sample size, they had to cut to double the period time from 1 to 2 weeks, meaning, each week you get just half the sample. They even tried to correct the data thereby. Ha!

6) What I've been able to find is the precise leaning of each half of their sampling! Group 1 resists Trump. Group 2 supports him. I'm sure you realize that that completely invalidates the scientific basis of the endeavor, yes? If not, trust me, it does. No, don't trust me!

7) If there's a single key value in scientific discovery, it is the use of random sampling. If I'm able - as I am! - to identify the leanings of their two sample groups, then their sample groups are NOT randomized. I am NOT a scientist. I'm just a lowly analyst (I'm NOT lowly!).

8) But my chart analysis chops are, well, pretty damn good, and the chart above PROOVES beyond that shadow of a doubt that Dornsife has surrendered its right to claim science as its basis. Politics are its basis. I've proven it. A scientist should check out my work. Right?

9) Funny thing! This is the best damned data they have this year, non-randomized as it is. The rest of their data is so polluted as to be unworthy of notice. I chart none of their other data anymore. None. I've outlined this many times, but it must be repeated.

10) This data, driven by the following questions: Who do you think others in your state will vote for?, is the one and only question they employ now that matters. It is a surrogate question for this, their best one from 2016:

Who will win?

11) I'll soon give you more charts. But, stick with me, and theorize, why would Dornsife drop the question: Who will win?

I've realized there's only one possible answer. They already know Trump will win and do NOT want to hear that answer.

12) So, whoever it was that sneaked in this surrogate question should get offered a high paying job. If I was where I should be, I'd hire him or her in a happy heartbeat. Non-randomized as it is, this chart is still worth following. But, wait till you see what's coming!

13) Now let's look at the entire campaign and see where we're at.

I love this chart too. I love when a chart gives me a sense of the story it reports. My bet is that the positions are actually inverted. I don't think Biden ever had a chance. I don't. But, no matter. Look.

14) That's an interesting chart. It could even be real. I don't think so, as you know, because I have no faith in the underlying data. But, truth has a funny way of peaking out from under lies, like little shoots growing up in sidewalk cracks. This is a good story.

15) Let me express it my way. The media and the false polling outfits have tried and tried, with all the power in their means, to support an even worse candidate than Clinton2 was. They've shown their certain victory at every turn, by all and every means.

16) But they can't get the job done. Consider this new term, a technical campaign term, "We've put a lid on today's events." Clinton2 did the same thing, of course. But it had no formal name. Now, we have a name for it. Wow. And wow again, it ain't working. I'm shocked...not!

17) Technically, if I hadn't already made my call, the form below Trump's support line would give me the impetus to do so now. If you haven't killed him by now, then watch out, he's coming for you. Biden's dropping, Trump rising. Imagine that.

18) My first business meeting of the day is about to get started, so I have to break off analysis for the while. Before I go, though, a word to my Democratic friends. You can hear a tone in my voice of rage, of infuriation. And you're right. I see your leaders as cheaters.

19) I see them doing everything in their power to game the system. More, the system used to be adequately rigged so they didn't even have to try. I credit my guy Trump, and our MAGA Movement with making it MUCH harder for their rigging to protect them.

20) They've cheated the entire system for the last 4 years, and they've done so even more over the range of this election. I call them cheaters, and, yeah, I hate cheaters.

Many more charts to come, after coming business meeting and such...

Meeting went over, significantly, but it was a great meeting! I'll be back in a few moments and pick up again...

21) Let's look at that chart again. There's something particularly important about it. First, we see a clear resistance line that Biden, for all his aids, has never broken, not one time. It's between 48 and 48.5%. Just can't get it over that mark. Doesn't look to now.

22) Second, Trump shows a crystal clear support line, almost broken recently. What I call that is "form" beneath support. If he heads back down there again - as always, assuming this data meaningful - it won't be good. But he was ONLY down there for 2 tests, not 3.

23) We've discussed the Periodicity Problem, and see it at play again right now. This 2nd group supports Trump, and up his numbers are going. But, I think there's something vastly more profound in play, fundamentally. Where's Hunter? Biden's corruption appears to count.

24) Looking at the chart, we see that Biden's massive lead has fallen 4 times so far. He appears to be falling again now. If Trump rises and crosses over again, it may well be the path to victory. As I said, we'll be looking at these technicals more to come.

25) But before we leave this lovely chart, allow me to reminisce again about 2016. I will never forget the moment I was looking at the chart, and saw that the entire campaign had its own logic. You could see the whole thing, right there, in front of you by data. Wow!!!

26) To glance, that is precisely what we see here. This campaign, as seen, is a war between Biden's resistance and Trump's support. Trump's support cannot win, whereas Biden's resistance can. But only if he can sustain it, you know, playing out the clock.

27) If, on the other hand, he allows Trump to snatch the lead from him, it appears that will be the end. Of course, there's always the whimper factor of months in deadlock in courts and such. But, just following the charts, here we are. Where will the data lead us?

28) Today, as we have 3 Biden charts to cover, we certainly won't linger long on this one. I'd call this a meandering resistance, but a dictatorial one. You shall go no further, this resistance says. You know, there's this video of Biden saying, I looked at my watch...

29) This one's another absolute favorite chart. Two reasons. I drew it a long time ago, and haven't changed the markup since. Cool markup, right? Then, I love how both paths have been completely busted. As in BUSTED! You got caught cheating and here we see it!

30) 2 days past the projected victory line are NOT definitive. But they are also NOT good! I've always said Biden's resistance here has a certain "heavy" feel. If he's headed back down to or past support, we can hear a certain pleasantly plump lady warming up her vocal chords.

31) I'm told there's a debate tonight. Let's imagine Biden nails Trump to the floor. It could be his numbers will soar and he'll have a final victory path. Not a bet I'd take, but always possible. And, you can clearly see what he needs to accomplish. I do love this chart!

32) This is our last Biden chart, today. Again one who's markup I drew many days ago, and which remains unchanged. Here, we're 5 really bad days passed the break point. Really bad? Yeah, you hit it, fall, rise again, fall again. Exhaustion. Again, really, really bad.

33) This is our last chart of the day. We're only 2 days past the defeat line I drew some time ago. But when I saw the first day yesterday, I already knew. Well, again we have to mention our 2nd Dornsife Group who support Trump. We're in their days, now.

34) But viewing the long line, oh yeah!, we're back up into the channel, the lovely channel! If we break the support line a 3rd time, then it's broken. Right now, with two tests below, it's NOT reconfirmed, but it's also NOT broken! Think on that, yes?

35) I cannot say that the Defeat Path? line is broken, yet. It's only two days above it, and our line could drop right back down again to, or worse, below this line (which was also drawn many days ago). But I'm not feeling it. I'm feeling the opposite.

36) So that's my chart offering for today. I have no clue whether they're true or not. I do know that they're flawlessly true to the data I have. My suspicion, as you know, is that POTUS is vastly higher up than is shown, and that Biden has no chance.

37) Before we close out, let's return to the debate thing. I still hold that Trump won the last one, by laying down the clear and unbridgeable gap separating the Democratic Party's left from its middle. Brilliant. I am saying, there's no way to connect the two fighting halves.

38) And as to the winner or loser of tonight's debate, remember, Trump doesn't play to surface level victories, mere popularity contests. Every single thing he does is with actual victory in mind. He also doesn't fight to this demographic or that. He just fights.

39) This is my guess. In Trump's mind there's only a single question he pictures a voter facing...

Who will fight harder for me?

Every time they tell you Trump lost this or that, they never factor that question in. Never.

40) And there's a theory that it seems NO ONE uses, at least, none of the normal commentators. Here it is:

Maybe Trump was right?

You ask that question, and things look very different.

Thread ends at #40.

CIRRECTION ON LAST CHART: It stated the 16th of October. It was, in fact from today. I simply failed to update the actual date. I've now corrected for that, here: