Thread by @ThyConsigliori

24 October 2020 #MAGAanalysis

The Beat Goes On

Are you a stickler for punctuality? I sure am. I make phone calls to the minute of the appointment. I show up for Zoom minutes a minute or two early. Face to face? Anything passed 15 minutes early is late. How about you?

2) I'd show the picture but if you're awake, you can go check yourself. Dornsife is over 2 hours late. In fact, in these early morning meanderings of mine, I don't remember the last time they published on time. For shame. And I really mean that.

3) For shame. When do you hear that phrase anymore? For victimhood is more likely. Since being punctual might put stress or pressure on someone, we must create a safe place for tardiness. Slack. We must not judge.

Not me. I am a fierce judge and trust my inner laws.

4) You can check me on this relative to polling. I have attempted to create my own polling outfit, and we've achieved a great deal. We learned how to correct against our sample bias. We know how to procure honest data, with honest questions. We have succeeded...except...

5) I can't publish our data, yet. Just these few days away from the election, I'm unlikely to do so at all, until after the election. For one thing, we didn't do the right business planning. Funding. I need say no more on that account. But there is a far more important parameter.

6) Trust. I thought I'd licked the problem when we mastered the art of balancing out Democrats, Independents, and Republicans with a lovely algorithm. I was SO excited! And the algorithm worked to perfection. The next shoe then fell.

7) Pulled out and safely protected from my samples Republican bias, I discovered that BOTH my Independents and even my Democrats ALSO leaned so heavily to Trump that well, I couldn't trust my data enough to publish it. You can't imagine how much I hate admitting that.

8) Some of you kindly recommended we build a go-fund-me and I thought I would, but, well, there's that damned pride problem I suffer. It's not the only reason I didn't, but it's the main one. And I've accepted that for the moment. No promises about the next moment, though...

9) But the beat goes on. I don't mind sharing that after the election we will build out a proper business plan, and we know how to procure honest data, with honest questions, all the way down to the smallest local election anywhere. I can't tell you how excited I am about that!

10) Let's get to my data, just the way it is. What if, for my still too small sample size, what if my data were right? We keep hearing about Trump supporters who don't answer poll questions, or who lie due to Trump Shame. Yeah, that's a thing! Trump Shame. Hmmm.

11) Remember, my poll's main face is 100% anonymous, and we only ask 5 questions. It's just online, and 100% voluntary. If you haven't been there yet, you should check it out.

BetweenTheLines.Vote

12) My playful theory right now is, what if we've won a bit of trust with our method, so people are confident of their anonymity (modeled from our traditional sacred moment in the anonymous voting booth), and we're getting a strange truth from those who answer?

13) I've told the story before. I was such a rabid Reagan hater that my brilliant and patient wife @KateScopelliti lied by omission to me, simply never telling me that she voted for Reagan. She rightly realized that it just wasn't worth the grief and besides, it was her right.

14) I can easily see myself in a room with Trump haters and just keeping my piece. I can easily imagine I'd just be ready to lie to anyone. Who do you support, Scopelliti? Biden, I lie. Honestly, I wouldn't do that. But I can so easily imagine it, and I wouldn't judge me, either.

15) So again, with the beat going on, what if my data were actually a better window on America's vote than I'm able to put it forward as? What if? Well, if that were true, we'd certainly be looking at about a 47 state wipeout. It could happen, but I can't make that call.

16) Now let's turn from the data, good, bad, late, or in so many cases distorted into pure lies, etc. I've called for Trump's win, and completely stand behind it. But I never really do believe myself, as I have so often been wrong. I've had to learn what to do about that.

17) For instance, we listen to @TuckerCarlson almost every night now. His star has risen so high, and with such good cause. So last night, I hear him talking about high large China's economy is. I don't know if he's right, but it doesn't look good for a prediction I made.

18) I called for the fall of the Chinese Communist Party by or before our election. I did this last winter. As spring and summer have passed, I began to do my typical failure analysis, and here's what I found I miscalculated. It's us, the U.S. and how we support them.

19) There's simply no way that Eisenhower could have foreseen such a thing as a China Arm of the Military Industrial Complex. He mapped out its evils for our Democratic Republic. I haven't studied them much, but imagine the Eisenhower-Nixon team.

20) Nixon was one of the most famous Communist Hunters of his day. I have to guess his selection was the attempt to provide a bridge to the Conservative Republicans who want some guy named Taft, and opposed Ike. Nah, Ike wasn't warning about a China connection, no way.

21) But I am. If I'm as wrong as it looks like so far, The Swamp, awash in Chinese payoff money, and possibly about to get another China stooge as President, wow, that some deep doo doo. I don't remember Ike sending any factories abroad, do you?

22) China Stooge presidents? I've listed them many times:

1) Bush 41
2) Clinton 1
3) Bush 43
4) Obama

Not too sure about Ford and Carter, I just can't make myself do the research. And I don't blame Nixon.

Hey!!! The data are in. I'm going to go take a data break, check that out, make an espresso, and then I'll come back. How fun!

I did check and I'll be working on charts, maybe later today, maybe tomorrow. However, I won't be back this morning as promised above. I just discovered a problem with our koi pond's pump. Not for the first time, either. Always very time consuming. So, see you all later, friends.

1:30 PM Update.

You know, it’s distinctly possible. Wow.