Thread by @ThyConsigliori

23 October 2020 #BewtweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

What a debate, and the day after charts!

Okay, okay, there's no way that last night's debate factors into today's charts, yes? Still, get ready to have some fun. And get ready for a ton of new charts! Here's the simple data.

2) Diving right in, here's our first chart of both parties. You'll just have to forgive me in advance for bragging rights. These two lines, Biden's Resistance and Trump's Support were drawn many weeks ago, and here they're still holding. Admit it. Impressive.

3) It may not look like it on the chart, but today's data is, in technical fact, the 7th crossover between the two campaigns. Everything may change again tomorrow, and if so, that'll be the 8th. But that's not my prediction. Here's my call. Crime pays, until it costs.

4) Think our beloved Santa Clause and his stocking gifts of toys vs lumps of coal. That's justice. Naughty and nice. Got that? Joe Biden has been very, very naughty boy. He has committed crimes all the way up to and completely inclusive of high treason. Christmas stocking coal.

5) My theory is that what we see on this chart is the Hunter Laptop From Hell. This chart does NOT include Bobulinski or last night's debate. Yeah, I'm feeling this one. But, let's let the charts speak! Here's our first Biden only chart.

6) Would you look at that? Weeks ago I charted a Victory Path for Biden, as it showed up right there on that line. We're six days beyond the death of that line. Broken to smithereens. Today's the last day I'll show it. X marks the spot.

7) As we'll be returning to this data - from other perspectives - let's move right along to our 1st Trump chart for today. At roughly the same time I drew the Biden Victory path, I drew the Trump defeat path. Both are obliterated now. I won't show this chart again, either!

8) You have to admit drama is wonderful. As I've stated many times, this data is, well, NOT to be trusted. Still, as we roll along it's feeling truer and truer and I think I know why. It shows combat. Group 1 opposes Group 2. Neither is selected scientifically, but both fight.

9) I might have entitled this chart: The Channel Holds!

If Trump has two more days like this, he'll explode past resistance for the 1st time. No, I am NOT predicting that. I hope so, of course, but the logic is just that, logic. Even then, that won't break the channel, yet.

10) We have several more sets of charts to analyze. Before we do, let's take, again, another look at 2016. I really do have to redraw this chart, soon, using the same methods I do now. But this is what I posted 8 November 2016.

11) There's a really important bit of information on this chart, more meaningful for right now than any other. Trump's final crossover, above Clintion2, occurred exactly 14 days before the election.

Tell you what. I'll have this chart in current format by tomorrow.

Stepping out for a second charting cycle, against today's data. I'll be back shortly. All charts are drawn, but their various stories need organizing.

12) 2nd attack. We begin this one by looking at both campaigns, inside their respective data error ranges. As we'll discuss this more, first just look at the data. Above and below, you see the bumper pads of insignificant data highs and lows. Inside, the combat zones.

13) When I look at this chart, my first question - which I've asked many times before - is why? Maybe how? What makes the margin of error keep on moving? How is it so dynamic? By which I mean...I smell a rat. I just don't buy that this range is that much in motion.

14) But look at the campaign combat within the range. Not only is there actual drama, except for the beginning salvo of data, every stitch of it has been within the margin of error. Ha. The point here is to say that, there's no meaning to the data. That's Dornsife's conclusion.

15) But again, I smell a rat. Here's the margin of error range, insignificant difference area mapped out all by itself, no analysis, just the data.

16) What's to note there? As the election season wears on, the margin of error, both on its low and its high, continues to rise. Why might that be? Purportedly, the data set - the sample - is not changing. If not, then why is the margin for error continuously on the move?

17) Going back to 2016, I did follow this range - it was presented very differently! - and it never crossed my mind back then to ask, why is it always changing? But here today, not only does it still change, it's heading in a clearly identifiable direction.

18) A clearly identifiable direction? Yeah. This chart out shows the channel ranges for both upper and lower limits. I say again, I am NOT trained in polling data creation, or the statistics that empower it. But how can such clear predictability occur? In the Margin Of Error?

19) Here's my theory. The margin of error is the PRECISE place where Dornsife has chosen to effect their own control over the data, well, their control in last resort. They've polluted their questions. They've selected their sample for purpose. But this is last place of power.

20) To my eye, where the slope of margin for error is here up, it SHOULD be down. Or at least reduced. Meaning, as the days of the election period pass, we SHOULD draw nearer and nearer confidence in our call, in our data. Yet, here we see the opposite effect.

21) Allow a personal note here. I've shared before that the only course in statistics I took college was the Intro 101 course. In coming months, I will change that. Here's what I mean. I have to deepen my mastery of the real mathematical basis of statistics. I will.

22) The very idea of a Margin of Error in polling is fundamentally a statistical concept. As I move forward, I promise to master all of its basics, in a way I do not have now. Math counts. Ha!

After a 2nd short break, I'll be back with our next charts. Don't lose patience. I promise they'll be interesting!

23) Sadly, today's also the last day for this chart formation. I loved drawing it in the first place. Now it is completely broken.

24) You know what, as my great friend @cancerousToejam forces me, I have to go draw another chart right now. Coming up...

25) So here's a new formation!

26) Running out the clock, eh? Calling your work in from the basement, eh? Nah, I'm not seeing it. As you can see here, Trump has entered the DANGER ZONE. If he catapults his campaign long resistance line, give it up. That will be victory.

27) You all know how much I LOVE my technical data. But now, let's turn back to fundamentals. Biden is done. Take him out of the oven. His China Corruption Scandal cannot be undone. It's a picture you can't unsee. While it was a Hunger scandal, it could be survived.

28) There are just too many news cycles left to lose.
What's a cycle? What, 3 per day...? With every passing cycle the scandal will become less Hunter's and more Joe's. Joe is 100% under China's thumb. And, he's been caught hand in the cookie jar. It's over and done for Joe.

29) And Trump, last night at the debate!, you can't bring it home better or stronger than he did. Tactics to perfection. Strategy immaculate. The plist in the Democratic Party irreparable. Joe, intellectually lost within his conflicting missions. D left and D middle split.

30) I thought the moderator was as great as she could be, given mandate to protect Joe. How many interruptions to Trump? How few to Biden? It was 100% obviously rigged against Trump and he mastered it like proverbial hot knife through warm butter. Ouch!

31) Let's talk about style. Trump gets morally, righteously indignant and angry. We, his supporters, love him for it. Biden is nasty, vindictive, aggressive in that way that no one ever seems to comment upon. Joe is nasty.

32) In all this, we have the fundamentals of the coming election. Joe is irreparably split between Democratic left and Democratic middle. They have no truck with each other, and cannot be melded together. My call is this. The D left will either NOT vote, or vote for Trump.

33) By pandering to, but not honestly embracing his left, Joe has betrayed his middle. They won't vote for him either. Pick your topic. Law and order. America first. Police funding. The middle and Joe are split asunder.

34) Joe has betrayed his left. No fracking? Phasing out, as opposed to STOPPING oil? What about the Green New Deal? Is he for or agin? You can't tell, can you? In all this, having nothing to do with treasonous corruption, Biden is done, done, done.

35) Clinton1 was a traitor. Buish43 also. Obama even worse. Clinton2 as evil as can be. Now, treasonous Biden? Corrupt and vile as can be? This is what America contemplates?

Nay I say. Not and no way.

Biden shall not be POTUS.

Thread ends at #35.