[Thread] Last night the Chief Medical Officer finally said #covid19 is spread “indoors in poor ventilation”
This is HUGELY SIGNIFICANT, & here’s why.. 1/ #Covid19
This is HUGELY SIGNIFICANT, & here’s why.. 1/ #Covid19
..Ireland’s public health message is not in step with international scientific community & has not kept pace with 9 months of research.. so no warnings have been given about ~airborne~ virus spread that happens ~beyond 2m~
2/
2/
..it’s now known this respiratory virus is caught from inhaling when breathing; risks from surfaces were over-stared so perspex screens & deep cleaning have distracted people from the most important prevention- ‘clean air’ (take 5 mins this is worth it) 3/
.. so if HSE/NPHET catch up quickly then nursing homes, schools, homes, workplaces & amenities can ~immediately~ take simple preventative measures to ‘air’ rooms regularly, filter & monitor high risk conditions; most of this is ~free~ or very low cost 4/ usatoday.com/in-depth/graph…
.. nursing homes & over-crowded housing (incl direct provision, housing for homeless people, travellers, work dorms etc) need targeted prevention & support to make an immediate difference to stop ‘super-spread’ conditions
Stop the superspreading to stop the pandemic 5/
Stop the superspreading to stop the pandemic 5/
.. & it doesn’t take a crowd.. high risk #covid19 conditions can happen in a family homes in a very short time..
this is recent monitoring of CO2 (above red line shows high risk conditions) by @citlanx 6/
this is recent monitoring of CO2 (above red line shows high risk conditions) by @citlanx 6/
..which may explain recent ‘clusters’ in homes in closed windows when weather got colder
Last Spring the high-risk hot-spots were in yellow zone, temperatures 5-11°C & they’re back in October (zone: Wuhan, NY, Seattle, cities in Italy, Spain, France, Germany, UK, Ireland etc) 7/
Last Spring the high-risk hot-spots were in yellow zone, temperatures 5-11°C & they’re back in October (zone: Wuhan, NY, Seattle, cities in Italy, Spain, France, Germany, UK, Ireland etc) 7/
..so there is far more hard evidence that this second #Covid19 wave is due to environmental conditions & human comfort... not ‘bad behaviour’ as claimed
Which means policing, fines & warnings may not be effective.. whereas clear advice, support & science-based rules may be 8/
Which means policing, fines & warnings may not be effective.. whereas clear advice, support & science-based rules may be 8/
..change signalled by @CMOIreland means @President_MU needs to re-run model to incl other factors
Spring lockdown had tailwind (rising temps, open windows, outdoor activity, shut schools) ..but Autumn lockdown has strong headwinds (cold, shut windows, open schools & fatigue) 9/
Spring lockdown had tailwind (rising temps, open windows, outdoor activity, shut schools) ..but Autumn lockdown has strong headwinds (cold, shut windows, open schools & fatigue) 9/
..& NPHET are currently using ‘average R’
..but acc to Prof Pennington: ‘In a care home, R number is probably 10. For whole population, R number may be below 1’
‘[average R] is useful in epidemiology textbook. It is not in public health measures’
reaction.life/hugh-penningto… 10
..but acc to Prof Pennington: ‘In a care home, R number is probably 10. For whole population, R number may be below 1’
‘[average R] is useful in epidemiology textbook. It is not in public health measures’
reaction.life/hugh-penningto… 10
..most of known high-risk (high R) places are unchanged at Level 5 (schools, homes, care homes, direct provision, meat plants) & many others were already shut (pubs, restaurants, universities, offices etc)
..so changes in low-risk places (shops, sports) may not have impact /11
..so changes in low-risk places (shops, sports) may not have impact /11
..‘HSE to employ 500 contact-tracers to track future Covid-19 patients, asking where they went & who they met. But, how many people are employed to look at our houses & buildings to prevent tens of thousands of people becoming infected in first place?’ /12 irishtimes.com/opinion/why-go…
.. can better ventilation work?
Japan has advised ‘3 Cs’ since February & in a population of 126m has had fewer #Covid19 deaths than Ireland /13
Japan has advised ‘3 Cs’ since February & in a population of 126m has had fewer #Covid19 deaths than Ireland /13
& in this case in Taiwan:
‘Improving ventilation was associated with 97% decrease in risk for contacts to become new infections & helped to end TB outbreak in a university’ /14 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
‘Improving ventilation was associated with 97% decrease in risk for contacts to become new infections & helped to end TB outbreak in a university’ /14 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
..lessons from other #Covid19 case studies linked to ventilation can inform changes: meat plant recirculated air in Germany, call centre outbreak in Hong Kong, choir super-spread in USA, school air-con in Israel, a cruise ship, a bus in India..& this restaurant in China /15
FAQs on Protecting Yourself from COVID-19 Aerosol Transmission
docs.google.com/document/u/1/d…
‘Rigid safe distancing rules are an oversimplification based on outdated science’
..there is no safe distance or safe duration in poor ventilation /17
@bmj_latest bmj.com/content/370/bm…
docs.google.com/document/u/1/d…
‘Rigid safe distancing rules are an oversimplification based on outdated science’
..there is no safe distance or safe duration in poor ventilation /17
@bmj_latest bmj.com/content/370/bm…
Finally, other threads:
👩🏫 Schools, practical steps
📚 Inadequate & inconsistent public health rules for buildings
📈Can Level 5 work?
/end
👩🏫 Schools, practical steps
📚 Inadequate & inconsistent public health rules for buildings
https://twitter.com/orla_hegarty/status/1316276288278212610?s=21
📈Can Level 5 work?
https://twitter.com/orla_hegarty/status/1318215779129741313?s=21
/end
https://twitter.com/orla_hegarty/status/1307624249566392320
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