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26 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
#FL #EarlyVoting This poll was conducted 10/20 to 10/23. Conservatively I will use 10/23 data and assume that 5.2m votes have been cast and 4.8m still to go. Let’s be generous and give Biden 52-48 for NPAs. Let’s assume equal crossovers. ---
2/ That gives ~470k Biden lead with those already voted. Out of 4.8m remaining, using this poll’s data, Trump will lead by 912k votes. Adding these together, Trump will win by about 442k votes, or about 4.5 percentage points. ----
3/ Again, this is based on very conservative assumptions. Trump should win FL comfortably. Winner of FL has won each of the last six elections. #MAGA2020
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More from @athein1

au ng Profile picture
20 Oct
1/ #FL #EarlyVoting Explanation on why Dems Need such a Large Lead going into Election Day:

So many people were wondering why Dems need 653k to 900k lead going into 11/3/20. The main reason: 800k+ more Dems than Rs have asked for VBM ballots this year versus ----
2/ about equal numbers (D = R) in 2016. Other reasons: Voter registration numbers have shifted from about 330k D+ in 2016 to half that much lead in 2020. There, 100k+ more votes shifting from D to R. ---
3/ In 2016, D lead on election eve was 88k translating to 113k Trump win. People assume that the differential was about 200k (88k+113k). They wrongly assume that if on 11/2/20, Ds are leading by 200k, it would be a toss up and if Ds lead by more than 200k, Biden wins. ---
Read 5 tweets
au ng Profile picture
20 Oct
#FL #EarlyVoting update: Dem lead increase after the first day of in person EV is 8.5k (combined VBM + in person). Dem lead is now projected to be well below the red line threshold of 653k. I suspect it might take a downward trend by this weekend. Rs will crush on ED. #MAGA
Here is the updated graph:
Here's the explanation for the purple line.

Read 4 tweets
au ng Profile picture
19 Oct
#NC #EarlyVoting by "Freeper" bort: Posted on 10/18/2020, 6:09:44 AM by bort

Here are the takeaways from this morning's early voting report from the NC State Board of Elections:

1) Republicans cut about 1.5 points from the Democrats lead in VBM/early in-person voting.
2/ 2) Votes cast: 665K/355K/408K (D/R/U registered voters)

3) Democrats have cast 310,000 more votes than Rs, but..

4) In 2016, Democrats cast--get this--exactly 310,000 more votes than Republicans in the entire early voting period, i.e., the exact same spread as today.
3/ In 2016, at the close of EV, Dems led Rs 1.3 million to 1 million VBM/EV cast.

5) Republicans have won 3 straight days of early voting so far, and are the odds-on favorite to win most (if not all) of the remaining in-person EV days, as Dem-heavy mail-in ballots ---
Read 6 tweets
au ng Profile picture
11 Oct
#FL #VoteByMail In-Depth Case Study: Sumter County

Earlier today, @Redistrict suggested Sumter County (The Villages) would be a good place to monitor on the election night. I agree and I looked into the county level data to assess the VBM situaion. ----
2/ Doing so eliminates the artifact due to discrepancy of different counties mailing out ballots at different times.

I then looked up the VBM data from the primary election this year. What I found was fascinating. Only 24% of Rs have returned VBM ballots ----
3/ while 40% of Dems have done so. Compare that to 75% of Rs retuned VBM ballots during the primary vs 62% for Dems. This tells us that Rs are not just receiving the VBM ballots late (like in some counties). ----
Read 5 tweets
au ng Profile picture
10 Oct
1/ Another great insight by "bort" from freerepublic.com on the #VoteByMail and #EarlyVoting

Early voting surges...but not among black voters.
October 10, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/10/2020, 6:59:05 AM by bort

Below is a list of states that have accumulated ----
2/ substantial mail-in/early votes followed by the percentage share of votes cast by blacks in each state. In other words, of all the early votes that have been returned by mail or cast in person up until yesterday, ----
3/ these are percentages that were cast by black voters in each state:

Florida: 11% (Obama 2012: 14% of electorate)

Indiana: 5% (state AA population: 11%)

Maryland: 22% (state AA population: 33%)

Michigan: 8% (state AA population: 15%)

Neb(CD-2):4% (CD AA population: 10%)

-
Read 13 tweets
au ng Profile picture
10 Oct
Great insight by "bort" from freerepublic.com on the situation in #FL #VoteByMail

Florida early voting update (Good news)
Target Smart & @electproject ^ | October 9, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/9/2020, 8:58:43 AM by bort
2/ Returned vote by mail (VBM) ballots:

707K--Democrats/396K--Republicans/266K--Unaffiliated

If we assume that the "Unaffiliated" voters break 50-50 Trump/Biden, and we counted the ballots today, we would expect that Biden would be ahead of Trump in the VBM ballots ---
3/ at this point by roughly 64% to 36%. Bad news? Right? Not so fast.

According to TargetSmart's "party roll-up score," which predicts how individual voters will likely vote, Biden is leading Trump 55.3% to 38.1%, with a little over 10% of voters being undetermined. ---
Read 17 tweets

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