Tweet

https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1316253761392660480

https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1318605661425430534

More from @athein1

au ng

@athein1

20 Oct

1/ #FL #EarlyVoting Explanation on why Dems Need such a Large Lead going into Election Day:

So many people were wondering why Dems need 653k to 900k lead going into 11/3/20. The main reason: 800k+ more Dems than Rs have asked for VBM ballots this year versus ----

2/ about equal numbers (D = R) in 2016. Other reasons: Voter registration numbers have shifted from about 330k D+ in 2016 to half that much lead in 2020. There, 100k+ more votes shifting from D to R. ---

3/ In 2016, D lead on election eve was 88k translating to 113k Trump win. People assume that the differential was about 200k (88k+113k). They wrongly assume that if on 11/2/20, Ds are leading by 200k, it would be a toss up and if Ds lead by more than 200k, Biden wins. ---

Read 5 tweets

au ng

@athein1

19 Oct

#NC #EarlyVoting by "Freeper" bort: Posted on 10/18/2020, 6:09:44 AM by bort

Here are the takeaways from this morning's early voting report from the NC State Board of Elections:

1) Republicans cut about 1.5 points from the Democrats lead in VBM/early in-person voting.

2/ 2) Votes cast: 665K/355K/408K (D/R/U registered voters)

3) Democrats have cast 310,000 more votes than Rs, but..

4) In 2016, Democrats cast--get this--exactly 310,000 more votes than Republicans in the entire early voting period, i.e., the exact same spread as today.

3/ In 2016, at the close of EV, Dems led Rs 1.3 million to 1 million VBM/EV cast.

5) Republicans have won 3 straight days of early voting so far, and are the odds-on favorite to win most (if not all) of the remaining in-person EV days, as Dem-heavy mail-in ballots ---

Read 6 tweets

au ng

@athein1

11 Oct

@Redistrict

#FL #VoteByMail In-Depth Case Study: Sumter County

Earlier today, @Redistrict suggested Sumter County (The Villages) would be a good place to monitor on the election night. I agree and I looked into the county level data to assess the VBM situaion. ----

https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1315074376283254786

2/ Doing so eliminates the artifact due to discrepancy of different counties mailing out ballots at different times.

I then looked up the VBM data from the primary election this year. What I found was fascinating. Only 24% of Rs have returned VBM ballots ----

3/ while 40% of Dems have done so. Compare that to 75% of Rs retuned VBM ballots during the primary vs 62% for Dems. This tells us that Rs are not just receiving the VBM ballots late (like in some counties). ----

Read 5 tweets

au ng

@athein1

10 Oct

1/ Another great insight by "bort" from freerepublic.com on the #VoteByMail and #EarlyVoting

Early voting surges...but not among black voters.
October 10, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/10/2020, 6:59:05 AM by bort

Below is a list of states that have accumulated ----

2/ substantial mail-in/early votes followed by the percentage share of votes cast by blacks in each state. In other words, of all the early votes that have been returned by mail or cast in person up until yesterday, ----

3/ these are percentages that were cast by black voters in each state:

Florida: 11% (Obama 2012: 14% of electorate)

Indiana: 5% (state AA population: 11%)

Maryland: 22% (state AA population: 33%)

Michigan: 8% (state AA population: 15%)

Neb(CD-2):4% (CD AA population: 10%)

-

Read 13 tweets

au ng

@athein1

10 Oct

@electproject

Great insight by "bort" from freerepublic.com on the situation in #FL #VoteByMail

Florida early voting update (Good news)
Target Smart & @electproject ^ | October 9, 2020 | Vanity
Posted on 10/9/2020, 8:58:43 AM by bort

2/ Returned vote by mail (VBM) ballots:

707K--Democrats/396K--Republicans/266K--Unaffiliated

If we assume that the "Unaffiliated" voters break 50-50 Trump/Biden, and we counted the ballots today, we would expect that Biden would be ahead of Trump in the VBM ballots ---

3/ at this point by roughly 64% to 36%. Bad news? Right? Not so fast.

According to TargetSmart's "party roll-up score," which predicts how individual voters will likely vote, Biden is leading Trump 55.3% to 38.1%, with a little over 10% of voters being undetermined. ---

Read 17 tweets

au ng

@athein1

30 Jul

#RBG #RuthBaderGinsburg Update

1/ This new info indicates a new milestone. What she most likely had was the tumor overgrowth around the existing biliary stent, causing it to be obstructed. ---

2/ What the doctors at Sloan Kettering did was probably what is called stent-in-stent procedure: placing of a second stent with a narrower diameter inside the old one. What does this mean?

3/ This second stent will again be obstructed by yet more tumor growth over a much shorter time interval than the old one. When that happens, doctors will be out of good options. My prediction: she won't be back on the #SCOTUS for the fall reopening.

Read 4 tweets

Share this page!

au ng

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @athein1

au ng

au ng

au ng

au ng

au ng

au ng

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Like this author's thread?