1/
.@DogLady2020 I just checked back in on the prediction from 21 days ago & the 7 day average is 200 deaths per day
π
Third time in a row I have been a bit under (181 yesterday, then we had catch up Monday) but a reasonable prediction for 14/11 is 300 - 400 deaths a day
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.@DogLady2020 I just checked back in on the prediction from 21 days ago & the 7 day average is 200 deaths per day
π
Third time in a row I have been a bit under (181 yesterday, then we had catch up Monday) but a reasonable prediction for 14/11 is 300 - 400 deaths a day
π¬
https://twitter.com/ConcernedofBri1/status/1313588170886393866
2/
Previous estimates have been based on the 7 day average of cases reported.
Shifting to 7 day average of cases by swab date gives an expected average of 206 deaths/day today - spookily accurate.
WARNING: We don't know the average yet as swab date lags by c. 4 days
Previous estimates have been based on the 7 day average of cases reported.
Shifting to 7 day average of cases by swab date gives an expected average of 206 deaths/day today - spookily accurate.
WARNING: We don't know the average yet as swab date lags by c. 4 days
3/
We are on day 57 π
Looking at another measure - the log of cases reported so far π you can see the orange line (deaths by date of death) is higher than the rolling average reported (blue)
This is because fatalities are rising - but note the last 5 days are unreliable
We are on day 57 π
Looking at another measure - the log of cases reported so far π you can see the orange line (deaths by date of death) is higher than the rolling average reported (blue)
This is because fatalities are rising - but note the last 5 days are unreliable
4/
Digressing - this makes Nick Triggle's commentπseem disingenuous or misinformed.
The rolling average hit 200 cases a day today and it would be a very big surprise in 5 -7 days if we don't see av. deaths by date top 200/day.
There are already 199 recorded for 22/10...
π€¦ββοΈ
Digressing - this makes Nick Triggle's commentπseem disingenuous or misinformed.
The rolling average hit 200 cases a day today and it would be a very big surprise in 5 -7 days if we don't see av. deaths by date top 200/day.
There are already 199 recorded for 22/10...
π€¦ββοΈ
5/
As above, I think I have found why the numbers under shoot based on the estimation method.
Using cases by swab date, you can't predict quite as far in the future, but this gives an estimate of 300 - 400 deaths a day by 11/11.
This is better than some recent log plots.
As above, I think I have found why the numbers under shoot based on the estimation method.
Using cases by swab date, you can't predict quite as far in the future, but this gives an estimate of 300 - 400 deaths a day by 11/11.
This is better than some recent log plots.
6/
Looking at updated log plots you can see the levelling off spoken of last week, but there is a worrying acceleration over the past few days.
Chillingly last weeks comment imply that the Government are okay with 500 deaths/day by 29/12 (orange line)
Looking at updated log plots you can see the levelling off spoken of last week, but there is a worrying acceleration over the past few days.
Chillingly last weeks comment imply that the Government are okay with 500 deaths/day by 29/12 (orange line)
7/
The log plotπis based on predicted values - the ones that gave an average of 206 for today.
This gives us another date to check, 17/11:
Orange line - 300 deaths/day
Red line - 400 deaths/day
The log plotπis based on predicted values - the ones that gave an average of 206 for today.
This gives us another date to check, 17/11:
Orange line - 300 deaths/day
Red line - 400 deaths/day
8/
Remember that the deaths in 21 days time are pretty much baked in 3 weeks in advance, swabs taken up to todays date are already taken.
π
Action now would change things from 17/11 on...
Remember that the deaths in 21 days time are pretty much baked in 3 weeks in advance, swabs taken up to todays date are already taken.
π
Action now would change things from 17/11 on...
9/
It will be very interesting to see where cases go over the next week with Welsh and English schools having shut.
There seems to have been a dip in Scotland and Northern Ireland - it could be that @GavinWilliamson is looking at half term as #firebreak light
It will be very interesting to see where cases go over the next week with Welsh and English schools having shut.
There seems to have been a dip in Scotland and Northern Ireland - it could be that @GavinWilliamson is looking at half term as #firebreak light
10/
At this point, it becomes a question of how many deaths a day do @CMO_England @BorisJohnson & @MattHancock feel are acceptable
It looks inevitable that we will hit 300 deaths/day within a month
π€¬
This should be subject to open debate, not gaslighting into acceptance
End
At this point, it becomes a question of how many deaths a day do @CMO_England @BorisJohnson & @MattHancock feel are acceptable
It looks inevitable that we will hit 300 deaths/day within a month
π€¬
This should be subject to open debate, not gaslighting into acceptance
End
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