An E-day thread: For 4 years, Trump has governed as a wartime president for red America, w/blue America, not any foreign adversary as the target. That's provoked an enormous reaction from the diverse, well-educated urban centers & inner suburbs driving eco growth & innovation
Tonight will tell whether it's enough, but the scale of the mobilization from blue America-primarily metro America-is unprecedented. It's measured, for starters, in the record-setting Democratic fund-raising, mostly from small donors in well-educated areas, that's swamped Rs
It's measured in outpouring of celebrity support for Biden: ads from Brad Pitt, @springsteen, Eminem, campaigning by Cardi B, John Legend, Lady Gaga, Common, Spike Lee, Taylor Swift's twitter activism, $-raising reunions by casts of Avengers, Princess Bride, Veep & Happy Days etc
Its measured in the unprecedented crossover support for Biden from top officials in the other party: hundreds of former GOP national security officials (including Reagan's FBI Director & W's CIA head); top staff for past 3 GOP presidential nominees;
Dozens of former GOP elected officials (including Governors, Senators & House); Reagan WH lawyers; former US Attorneys; about half of W's Cabinet; Cindy McCain. No nominee has ever won as much support from prominent figures in other party-not even Nixon 72
Above all, the response is measured in the soaring turnout & margins metro America has provided Ds since 2016. The mould was cut quickly- in 17 VA Gov race when Ds received record margins & turnout in prosperous NoVA suburbs-but also broke thru in previously red Richmond suburbs
That set the pattern for 18. Not only did D Rs sweep away last House Rs in metros already turning blue (NY/NJ, Phillie, Chicago, Detroit, MPLS, Denver) but Ds broke thru for wins in Sunbelt metros where Rs had dominated: Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, even Charleston, OKC.
The result was to exile GOP from fast-growing metro US: b4 18 election, Rs held 43% of House seats w/more college grads than national average. After, they held 24%. With more suburban losses coming, they could fall to ~20% after today. Ds dominate high-GDP seats per @MarkMuro1
Win or lose, Trump today is facing even greater opposition in virtually every metro. Biden's likely to expand Clinton's margins in almost all urban centers (Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Denver) & thriving white-collar suburbs
Trump lost 87/100 largest counties by combined 15m votes. He's at risk of losing about half of the 13 he won. His deficit will soar in many he already lost. In 16, counties he won accounted for only 1/3 of GDP. That could easily fall below 30% tonight.
I thought that the symbol of 2020 realignment would be if Trump loses Maricopa (Phoenix), largest US county he won, which no D nominee has carried since 48. But it may be more likely that even if Trump holds TX, the symbol of 2020 is the voter surge in TX big cities espec Houston
It remains possible, if less likely than 16, that Trump will generate enough advantage in mostly white, Christian exurban/small town/rural America to squeeze out another EC win despite losing popular vote. But metro America-the emerging America-has left it all on the field vs him
Win or lose, GOP faces reality that places driving economic & pop growth are consolidating vs them to unprecedented extent. Party faces risk of being tattooed to rising Millennials & Gen Z not only w/Trump's racism & misogyny but also his disdain for democracy & inciting violence
To win Trump's favor, Rs must not only excuse but emulate this behavior: @sendavidperdue disgracing himself w/open racism vs Harris, @marcorubio belittling himself w/groveling endorsement of vigilante violence in TX; TX Rs suing to disqualify 127k votes
In all these ways, Trump has sentenced GOP to a strategy of squeezing bigger margins from groups & places that are shrinking at price of provoking greater resistance from groups & places that are growing. He might make it work one more time & Senate favors the shrinking places
Also like the South in 1850s, facing a national majority coalescing against them behind the new Republican Party in the North, GOP today has laid down many procedural sandbags to block that new majority, particularly control of SCOTUS
But under Trump Rs have positioned party in open opposition to what America is becoming, governing only for those most fearful of the country's changes. At any political moment, the past may win for a while. But the future always gets the last word. That may start today. (end)

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More from @RonBrownstein

3 Nov
No one can rule out Trump squeezing out another EC win (if less likely than 16). But win or lose, he's exiling GOP from the places shaping 21st century America. Could lose over 90/100 largest US counties & counties that generate fully 70% or more of GDP. Visible in states too
In 2016, Trump won only 4/20 states where immigrants comprise the largest share of the total population; now he’s at varying risk of losing all four: AZ, FL, GA, TX. He won only 7/25 states w/biggest share of col grads; w/PA, NC, GA teetering, he might win only 4 of them today
Trump won just 5/22 states where White Christians (per @PRRIpoll) are below 45% of pop. He could lose 4 of them: AZ, FL, GA, ~TX. This is spilling onto GOP: after today, Ds could hold 35/40 Senate seats in the 20 states w/highest immigrant % & all 28 in the 14 w/most col grads
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
One key to the politics of the 2020s may be the interactive effect as two parties diverge across the fault line of welcome or resisting the changes remaking America.
It’s not hard to imagine that by 2024, Dems will be led by presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who is of Jamaican /Indian descent; vice-presidential nominee Pete Buttigieg, an openly gay man; House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, who would be the first Black person to hold that post.
Much like Obama did in 2008, such a roster would symbolize a changing America in a way that inspires the coalition of transformation—but terrifies many in the coalition of restoration.
Read 6 tweets
30 Oct
The bottom line on 2020: the emerging America-the places & people most comfortable w/how the country is changing demographically culturally economically-appear poised to reclaim control over the country's direction after a massive mobilization.…
That's reflected in the widening Trump deficits w/college + whites & young people, continuing towering deficits w/women of color (even if he gains somewhat w/men) & likelihood he will lose the 100 largest metros by even more than his 15m deficit in 2016.
Trump still has a slim path of massive non-col & non-urban White turnout in key states, but, win or lose, he's further exiling GOP from the places defining 21st century America: it's highly possible that the counties he wins will account for only ~30% (or less) of GDP.
Read 7 tweets
1 Oct
Trump's belligerent & dangerous behavior obscured how poorly Biden performed for much of #2020debate. On health care he totally misrepresented his own position-making it sound worse than it is. His lead on health fell dramatically in @StanGreenberg focus groups of debate watchers
Sure it was tough w/Trump hectoring, but Biden not only failed to explain his plans to build on #ACA but said his public option is "only for those people who are so poor they qualify for Medicaid they can get that free in most States." No it's not. It's available for everyone
including those who pay too much for employer provided care. His website: "Whether you’re covered through your employer, buying your insurance on your own, or going without coverage altogether, the Biden Plan will give you the choice to purchase a public health insurance option"
Read 9 tweets
12 Sep
These detailed NYT/Siena polls show some cracks for Biden over Trump's "order" offensive. But mostly they underscore why this isn't 1968: Most col+ whites-& even many non-col whites-see an underlying problem w/racism in policing & believe Trump makes situation worse, not better
In the WI poll, 51-42 majority still view #BlackLivesMatter favorably, including 64% of col+ whites & 40% of non-col. Among the WI col+ whites, 61% say Biden would do better at handling protests; 67% say he'd do better on race relations
In the MN poll, some worrisome signs for Biden: many believe he supports cutting police $ & just 1/5 support that. But 54% (including 61% col+ whites, 45% non-col) say Trump encourages violence; 52-41 say racism in policing bigger problem than riots (including 62% col+ whites)
Read 5 tweets

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