Thread by @RonBrownstein

An E-day thread: For 4 years, Trump has governed as a wartime president for red America, w/blue America, not any foreign adversary as the target. That's provoked an enormous reaction from the diverse, well-educated urban centers & inner suburbs driving eco growth & innovation

Tonight will tell whether it's enough, but the scale of the mobilization from blue America-primarily metro America-is unprecedented. It's measured, for starters, in the record-setting Democratic fund-raising, mostly from small donors in well-educated areas, that's swamped Rs

It's measured in outpouring of celebrity support for Biden: ads from Brad Pitt, @springsteen, Eminem, campaigning by Cardi B, John Legend, Lady Gaga, Common, Spike Lee, Taylor Swift's twitter activism, $-raising reunions by casts of Avengers, Princess Bride, Veep & Happy Days etc

Its measured in the unprecedented crossover support for Biden from top officials in the other party: hundreds of former GOP national security officials (including Reagan's FBI Director & W's CIA head); top staff for past 3 GOP presidential nominees;

Dozens of former GOP elected officials (including Governors, Senators & House); Reagan WH lawyers; former US Attorneys; about half of W's Cabinet; Cindy McCain. No nominee has ever won as much support from prominent figures in other party-not even Nixon 72

Above all, the response is measured in the soaring turnout & margins metro America has provided Ds since 2016. The mould was cut quickly- in 17 VA Gov race when Ds received record margins & turnout in prosperous NoVA suburbs-but also broke thru in previously red Richmond suburbs

That set the pattern for 18. Not only did D Rs sweep away last House Rs in metros already turning blue (NY/NJ, Phillie, Chicago, Detroit, MPLS, Denver) but Ds broke thru for wins in Sunbelt metros where Rs had dominated: Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, even Charleston, OKC.

The result was to exile GOP from fast-growing metro US: b4 18 election, Rs held 43% of House seats w/more college grads than national average. After, they held 24%. With more suburban losses coming, they could fall to ~20% after today. Ds dominate high-GDP seats per @MarkMuro1

Win or lose, Trump today is facing even greater opposition in virtually every metro. Biden's likely to expand Clinton's margins in almost all urban centers (Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, Charlotte, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Denver) & thriving white-collar suburbs

Trump lost 87/100 largest counties by combined 15m votes. He's at risk of losing about half of the 13 he won. His deficit will soar in many he already lost. In 16, counties he won accounted for only 1/3 of GDP. That could easily fall below 30% tonight.

I thought that the symbol of 2020 realignment would be if Trump loses Maricopa (Phoenix), largest US county he won, which no D nominee has carried since 48. But it may be more likely that even if Trump holds TX, the symbol of 2020 is the voter surge in TX big cities espec Houston

It remains possible, if less likely than 16, that Trump will generate enough advantage in mostly white, Christian exurban/small town/rural America to squeeze out another EC win despite losing popular vote. But metro America-the emerging America-has left it all on the field vs him

Win or lose, GOP faces reality that places driving economic & pop growth are consolidating vs them to unprecedented extent. Party faces risk of being tattooed to rising Millennials & Gen Z not only w/Trump's racism & misogyny but also his disdain for democracy & inciting violence

To win Trump's favor, Rs must not only excuse but emulate this behavior: @sendavidperdue disgracing himself w/open racism vs Harris, @marcorubio belittling himself w/groveling endorsement of vigilante violence in TX; TX Rs suing to disqualify 127k votes

In all these ways, Trump has sentenced GOP to a strategy of squeezing bigger margins from groups & places that are shrinking at price of provoking greater resistance from groups & places that are growing. He might make it work one more time & Senate favors the shrinking places

Also like the South in 1850s, facing a national majority coalescing against them behind the new Republican Party in the North, GOP today has laid down many procedural sandbags to block that new majority, particularly control of SCOTUS

But under Trump Rs have positioned party in open opposition to what America is becoming, governing only for those most fearful of the country's changes. At any political moment, the past may win for a while. But the future always gets the last word. That may start today. (end)