Thread by @70sBachchan

Back in March, ppl understood that its not current #'s but future trajectory that matters. Last month, infections in US & Europe rose so rapidly that daily deaths projected to double by Nov end. Action is required now, not in another 11 weeks with a new president. ht @ExanteData

Better treatment but w 'epidemic momentum' deaths will go past 2000 in wks.
"I expect the US to be reporting over 2000 deaths/day in 3 weeks time. Importantly, this doesn't assume any further increases in circulation & is essentially "baked into" currently reported cases"-@trvrb

China in January was in much the same situation as US T'giving. A larger migration of 400 million ppl that would have been a catastrophic superspreading event. But public health prevailed on politicians. Excellent comparative thread by an epidemiologist ⬇️

https://twitter.com/alexandraphelan/status/1328076094147354628

US pandemic is far worse than in Spring when CARES emergency legislation was passed. “Coronavirus Aid, Relief, & Economic Security” all reqd now.
Without money for rapid testing & paid sick leave the >2000 deaths per day from December will go on for weeks

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1329244576134148096

The difference one month of risky behavior makes with a virus that spreads when people mingle: In October, R in 9 states was around 1. Now R in 48 states exceeds 1. Coastal NE & Western states with R>1.2 should heed the midwest/plains warning.

https://twitter.com/70sBachchan/status/1316740645067816963

"The most useful thing Biden and Harris could do to fight the pandemic before they're sworn in is to get an approved Covid-19 vaccine on live television"

@nntaleb & Jonas Salk would approve. #SkinInTheGame washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…

24/ That surge after Thanksgiving? Its here.
ht @arpitrage

https://twitter.com/DrKarb/status/1336457833991254019

"People are lonely,scared,exhausted,grieving. Our leaders have abandoned us, so of course we're turning on each other. But shaming doesn't deter risky behavior—it just perpetuates stigma,which is counterproductive to containing the pandemic" @JuliaLMarcus theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Irony of uncontrolled US epidemic is that herd immunity with vaccination would go quicker if the 60 to 80 million people (CDC estimates 3-4X ppl have been infected than 20 million detected cases) who have already been infected were skipped in 1st pass

https://twitter.com/JohnArnoldFndtn/status/1344644131826642947

26/ Nobody should be numb to US catastrophe. "There is a problem with numbers: They are the same whether counting grains of sand, or people. Complexity is a better measure. Each person is an incredibly complex and irreplaceable treasure." -
@yaneerbaryam

https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1349132178375004160

27/ Each day of past month was a 9/11.

https://twitter.com/JenniferNuzzo/status/1350651233837731840

28/100million ppl in 100days is a low bar. US is vaccinating close to 1million each day w govt doing bare minimum
Biden should promise "We'll end it by Easter"; If 150M ppl are vaccinated & over 100M immune by infection, US pandemic could be over by April nbcnews.com/meet-the-press…

29/ Is US controlling Covid?

3 weeks of declining hospitalizations. 2,500 fewer ppl PER day (L)
Vaccination rates of elderly & essential workers are surging (R). Almost unnoticed, more than 1.35 million people are getting vaccinated daily! 32M overall. bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…

30 / COVID-19 Cases Are Dropping Fast. Why?

4 reasons: social distancing, seasonality, seroprevalence (over 1 in 4 americans already infected), and shots. ht @DKThomp

Its going to be a glorious summer! theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

31/ Deaths in US are falling fast.

US has vaccinated over 1.5 million people a day for more than a month. Nursing home residents, elderly, essential workers were most likely to die when infected, & now by the miracle of science, they live. Vaccines work. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…