Back in March, ppl understood that its not current #'s but future trajectory that matters. Last month, infections in US & Europe rose so rapidly that daily deaths projected to double by Nov end. Action is required now, not in another 11 weeks with a new president. ht @ExanteData Image
Better treatment but w 'epidemic momentum' deaths will go past 2000 in wks.
"I expect the US to be reporting over 2000 deaths/day in 3 weeks time. Importantly, this doesn't assume any further increases in circulation & is essentially "baked into" currently reported cases"-@trvrb Image
China in January was in much the same situation as US T'giving. A larger migration of 400 million ppl that would have been a catastrophic superspreading event. But public health prevailed on politicians. Excellent comparative thread by an epidemiologist ⬇️
US pandemic is far worse than in Spring when CARES emergency legislation was passed. “Coronavirus Aid, Relief, & Economic Security” all reqd now.
Without money for rapid testing & paid sick leave the >2000 deaths per day from December will go on for weeks
The difference one month of risky behavior makes with a virus that spreads when people mingle: In October, R in 9 states was around 1. Now R in 48 states exceeds 1. Coastal NE & Western states with R>1.2 should heed the midwest/plains warning. Image
"The most useful thing Biden and Harris could do to fight the pandemic before they're sworn in is to get an approved Covid-19 vaccine on live television"

@nntaleb & Jonas Salk would approve. #SkinInTheGame… Image
24/ That surge after Thanksgiving? Its here.
ht @arpitrage Image
"People are lonely,scared,exhausted,grieving. Our leaders have abandoned us, so of course we're turning on each other. But shaming doesn't deter risky behavior—it just perpetuates stigma,which is counterproductive to containing the pandemic" @JuliaLMarcus…
Irony of uncontrolled US epidemic is that herd immunity with vaccination would go quicker if the 60 to 80 million people (CDC estimates 3-4X ppl have been infected than 20 million detected cases) who have already been infected were skipped in 1st pass
26/ Nobody should be numb to US catastrophe. "There is a problem with numbers: They are the same whether counting grains of sand, or people. Complexity is a better measure. Each person is an incredibly complex and irreplaceable treasure." -
27/ Each day of past month was a 9/11.
28/100million ppl in 100days is a low bar. US is vaccinating close to 1million each day w govt doing bare minimum
Biden should promise "We'll end it by Easter"; If 150M ppl are vaccinated & over 100M immune by infection, US pandemic could be over by April…
29/ Is US controlling Covid?

3 weeks of declining hospitalizations. 2,500 fewer ppl PER day (L)
Vaccination rates of elderly & essential workers are surging (R). Almost unnoticed, more than 1.35 million people are getting vaccinated daily! 32M overall.… ImageImage
30 / COVID-19 Cases Are Dropping Fast. Why?

4 reasons: social distancing, seasonality, seroprevalence (over 1 in 4 americans already infected), and shots. ht @DKThomp

Its going to be a glorious summer!… Image
31/ Deaths in US are falling fast.

US has vaccinated over 1.5 million people a day for more than a month. Nursing home residents, elderly, essential workers were most likely to die when infected, & now by the miracle of science, they live. Vaccines work.… Image

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More from @70sBachchan

13 Jan
There's a 1970s style energy crisis playing out in Japan, Korea & China with hardly any attention from rest of the world. Gas & coal supply shortages, spikes in demand from harsh winter & rationing...but there are deeper roots. @JKempEnergy sets out analytical framework.
2/ Mindblowing that one reason energy use & prices are spiking in E Asia is Covid Ventilation. Offices, homes etc opening windows to prevent buildup of virus aerosols while also blasting heat during freezing winter. Thread on crisis…
3/ My kingdom for an LNG tanker. An unprecedented shortage of liquefied natural gas tankers has made them the most expensive ships ever hired to ferry commodities. Excellent reporting on E Asian energy crisis by @SStapczynski @a_shiryaevskaya… Image
Read 17 tweets
25 Dec 20
Between the pandemic & california mega fires & american dysfunction 2020 has been Mike Davis' cassandraesque year. But every time you think he's hit Peak Bleak, turns out he's still climbing...…
thankfully mike davis was completely wrong about the uneven burden of Covid. It hit poor countries of the subcontinent & africa much less than richer europe & americas.
Terrible as covid-19 is, a reminder that it could have been deadlier. Spanish flu killed the young more than the old. 60% of global mortality, some 20 million of 1918-19's toll was in India. Industrial Agriculture & inequality as Mike Davis warns will eventually produce a monster
Read 6 tweets
13 Nov 20
The definition of ideology is that it is immune to empirical refutation. Facts literally bounce off it.
2/ Scientists who have to pay attention to how reality works & not ideological words are devastatingly clear as to which governments least followed science in dealing with COVID-19.… Image
3/ Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, or find prettier ways to talk about it, or ignore it, doesn't go away. The 21stC is the Age of Consequences — of reality biting back, and we must learn to bend to its will. #viraltime #climatechange
Read 16 tweets
30 Sep 20
Neither the first case on West Coast or Germany in mid-January snowballed. It was chain of transmission from China to Italy to NYC in early Feb that sparked transatlantic explosion.

Francis Collins on latest research integrating phylogenetics & travel…
1st mea culpa of WHO's line that precautionary travel restrictions are ineffective @adam_tooze. Tellingly, comes about in "wealth before health" lawsuit in Austrian ski resort.…
E Asian govts did restrictions/screening passngrs/hotel quarantine in realtime Image
WHO anti-travel restrictions line was classic science & politics contest. This is @HelenBranswell Jan 26th report after vote to declare intl emergency went 50-50.
"Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus"… Image
Read 13 tweets
24 Sep 20
"Get rid of the ballots & you'll have a very peaceful - There won't be a transfer, frankly. There'll be a continuation"
Trump refuses a peaceful transfer of power if he loses in November…

Getting clear that Military will be required…
At the moment of constitutional crisis on Jan 20th, 2021, will US military escort the former president from the White House or do nothing & watch Black Lives Matter plaza become Tahrir Square?

Open letter to Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Milley… Image
3/ US will need a pacted transition to incentivize Trump leaving, w minimum violence. Republican & Dem elites will have to remove his fear of prosecution for manifest crimes. People protesting on streets cannot credibly commit to amnesty. ht @TomPepinsky…
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep 20
Xi's UN speech w commitment to CO2 peak *before* 2030 is significant…
Its "Green Revolution" framing is also driven by domestic opinion that's angry about joblessness & the megafloods of 2020 where millions suffered in farms & cities
China's 40y miracle manages to piss everyone off:

WorldBank: bastards didnt do Washington Consensus
Nationalists: richest dude is Taiwanese & most FDI comes from Japan/US
Left: You privatized half the State?
Greens: Coal & Concrete
Pentagon: We made a Monster
Isn't stabilising dangerous warming in US national interest? Here's former secretary of state James Baker & Shultz making the case for green detente & linkage under conditions of mutually assured destruction. #GeopoliticsOfGHGs… Image
Read 10 tweets

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