Thread by @jeuasommenulle

We finally have some Google mobility data for the lockdown period in France, after the end of the school holidays. What does it say?

I compared the daily cumulated changes in the mobility indicators after the announcement of the 1st & 2nd lockdown. Quick thread.

1st methodological point: for Lockdown 2 I compared the values after the lockdown was announced to the values before the holidays - to avoid some obvious bias.

The lockdown didn't start immediately. Unsurprisingly we can see a rush to retail on 1st day, which is consistent with anecdotal data saying that everyone decided to have a least beer/restaurant, whatever. Then the drop is sharp, but less than in LD1 (many shops r open)

Grocery: I am very proud of my fellow citizens, this time they didn't believe there would be a shortage of toilet paper! Now the cumulative change is almost 0. This is not where a reduction in R will come from.

I mention parks, though they are not super relevant, just to say that keeping them open is a GOOD idea and I'm glad people actually use them instead of going nuts at home.

Now the two most important metrics: transit & work. Transit has the strongest correlation with changes in R.
Yes ut has gone down, but nothing like LD1 and the last point (end of the holidays) is a -30. It's significant, but R was crushed with a -70 drop last time...

Work. Uh. Seriously? Aren't you supposed to be all working from home? Hello @gouvernementFR ? Are you watching?

And finally, time spent at home (a logical consequence of the other charts); this is important because it's extremely well correlated to GDP. And again, LD1 was totally different. It stabilized quickly at +30... we're at +7.

All this ok-ish for GDP... but with schools open, I'm really wondering where will the reduction in R come from exactly? The strategy is basically that crushing retail is enough. Honestly, I hope it's correct, but I'm not 100% sure.

A last, not least!