Thread by @NashSGC

This is really good. All eyes are on the EU FTA, but there's a lot to get over the line with third countries around the world just to maintain the status quo. We might get a deal with the EU, and still end up with no-deal with Mexico, Canada, Singapore and others.

https://twitter.com/BenChu_/status/1326475824334311425

To be fair to govt, there has been plenty of focus on continuity deals, but as with all things Brexit, the system has been given too little time, and some things might fall through the gaps.

Some continuity deals have also spent a long time in the "too difficult" pile in DIT. This was definitely the case with Turkey, a crucial market for automotive, food and drink, and textiles.

Govt. never worked out what to do about Turkey in the event of no-deal since Turkey can only agree a deal with the UK if the UK has a deal with the EU. Losing preferential trade with Turkey will have a serious impact of some important sectors.

My bet is still that we get a deal with the EU, so a deal with Turkey shld also be coming, but if govt. tactic is to run the clock down on Brussels, they are also running it down on Ankara. We might end up without a deal with Turkey on 1st Jan by accident.

As for other big markets, Canada is a v. interesting case study. Negotiations on a continuity deal were progressing last year, until the UK published it's no-deal tariff schedules. Canada took one look, thought "these look good", and told the UK there was no need to keep talking.

Things have moved on a bit now, but this is indicative of the interrelationship of all the negotiations. Agreeing a deal with the EU doesn't just impact relations with the EU, but negotiations with a whole host of other countries.

So this is a right old complicated web of negotiations that are all going on at the same time, under huge pressure and the disruption of the pandemic. Mistakes are bound to be made, but at least Parl. will pick those up when it scrutinises and ratifies each FTA. Oh, wait...