Thread by @JJSchroden

I’ve been asked several times over the past couple of days (given the Pentagon shake-ups) whether it would be logistically feasible to get all US troops out of #Afghanistan by Christmas as Trump supposedly wants. So, here goes a THREAD. 1/n

The answer depends on what you consider “withdrawal” of all the troops. Currently, the US has somewhere around 5000 troops in #Afghanistan & @NATO has about as many (& possibly slightly more). They are located on a small number (10 or so?) of bases across the country. 2/n

Those forces are supported by another 10-15k (maybe more?) contractors. If all Trump wanted was to get the uniformed personnel out, it’d likely be possible to do that in 2-3 weeks (a C-17 can carry ~200 people), so 10k troops = 50 C-17 sorties. 3/n

Contractors would demand to go at same time (if not b4) troops & other USG agencies would also draw down their personnel. Most of those people would go out via commercial flights from KAIA, which would surely turn the airport into chaos. Nonetheless, could be done in weeks. 4/n

But what about the *STUFF*? That’s where it gets hard. #DOD has helos, heavy trucks, sensitive gear, bombs, weapons, etc., that it would want back. Highly unlikely the WH could get away w/an order to just abandon it all (Congress would surely balk, much less DOD). 5/n

Even a highly triaged approach (eg focus on helos, lethal gear, sensitive equip) would still likely take weeks to pack up. Some of this would need to be flown out, which competes for cargo plane sorties with personnel retrograde. But much could go out by truck and/or rail. 6/n

And even that would require abandoning or destroying *a lot* of stuff in #Afghanistan. A responsible withdrawal (I know, but bear with me here) that works through #DOD’s established processes for retrograde & FOB closure/handover would take *months* to complete. 7/n

So, could we go to zero troops by Christmas? Sure, but only if you abandon all the stuff. Is that likely? I personally don’t think so. More likely is that the US sticks to the plan announced by NSA O’Brien that goes to ~2500 troops in early 2021. 8/n

Doing so would allow Trump to claim that he left office w/fewer troops in #Afghanistan than he inherited (a net drawdown) & he left Biden w/a US-#Taliban agreement & infra-Afghan peace talks as a path to zero. 9/n

If Biden continues on that path, history will credit Trump for having gotten US troops out of #Afghanistan as he wanted—though he would own the consequences. If Biden chooses something else (eg slowing the withdrawal), Trump still gets credit but is absolved of consequences. 10/n

But what about these Pentagon moves? I don’t see them as designed to get to zero by Christmas. At best, they’re to get to 2500 as planned—recall GEN Milley’s pushback on O’Brien’s announcement as “speculation?” No more pushback from #DOD on going to 2500 now. FIN. 11/11