Look, please don't interpret the Cain stuff to some grand plan or foresight or Biden or whatever big trend
Number 10 has two major problems:
- a PM who can't take decisions or structure things
- macho egos
It seems to have all gone like this:
- Number 10 press and comms are a mess
- Johnson likes US system where a spokeperson briefs the press, on the record
- Johnson wants to appoint someone
- Cain wants a lackey, someone suggests Allegra Stratton, and she's a pro. Oddly she wins
- Cain wants Stratton to be answerable to him, she refuses
- Johnson doesn't know what to do, tries to shift Cain upwards to a chief of staff position, unaware how much Cain is hated - even by his own fiancé
- backlash is so strong Johnson can't appoint Cain, so he goes instead
This might have the effect of making Number 10 slightly less abrasive, slightly less macho, and slightly more professional overall. But it all strikes me it's a product of disfunction, not any sort of plan.
/ends
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That Johnson - backed by Symonds, and having appointed Stratton - is trying to shape Number 10 for the medium term makes some sense.
And Cain and Cummings going will soothe relations with Tory MPs.
But there are a slew of problems.
First, a decision on Brexit is still needed. A mess in January will happen in any case. It will be even bleaker for Number 10 in a few months than now.
Second, Corona is still not in check - more Tory MPs will rebel if there are more lockdowns
Third, all this heavily briefed new found focus by Johnson on environmental issues - that’s likely a red rag to a bull for Tory backbenchers
Fourth, Cummings gave Johnson protection and some structure. Who will give him that now?
There is a new #BrexitDiagram Series 5, V6.0.0 - the first for a month! Which itself is interesting, and shows how little things have moved...
But with the Lords vote on the IM Bill clauses behind us, here is where we stand I think
Headline numbers
(compared with V5.0.0, 30.09.2020)
No Deal at end of the year - 43% (⬇️ 13%)
Deal by end of year - 44% (⬆️ 11%)
Lack of clarity / something else - 13% (⬆️ 2%)
This needs some unpacking
Above all the *order* of what happens next is now crucial - the House of Lords will only conclude on the Internal Market Bill right at the end of November, or early December - so the Frost-Barnier negotiations are now the only show that matters
Do they grumble and fill our airwaves with effluent?
Or do they rebel more forcefully?
The only route I see is they could write letters of no confidence in Johnson to the 1922 Committee... but 55 letters are needed to trigger a contest. That's surely not going to be reached?
Damn I am 🤮 of people arguing there ought to be no place for Starmer / Blair / Corbyn* in Labour, or no place for AOC / Sanders* for the Democrats, or that Biden is too pragmatic for the Democrats
YOU LIVE IN 2 PARTY SYSTEMS
* - delete according to your political prejudices
I don't live in a 2 party system
Were I in the UK, both Sigmar Gabriel and I would have to be in the Labour Party
But because Germany has a multi party system, my liberal left can pleasantly be in the Grüne, and Gabriel's authoritarian reactionary left in the SPD
Yes, my party might have to go into a coalition with the SPD. But I, as a party member, do not have to pass the time of day with someone like Gabriel
I have been thinking a lot about the Internal Market Bill and Brexiter reactions to Biden and the House of Lords vote, and have written a new blog post:
"The Internal Market Bill and Brexiters still unable to face the Brexit Trilemma"
The essence: I don't think there is a serious denial from the UK Govt that Internal Market Bill breaks international law - I hence disagree somewhat with this from @DavidHenigUK - it's not they think the US and EU are wrong, but that it does not matter