Jon Worth Profile picture
13 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
That Johnson - backed by Symonds, and having appointed Stratton - is trying to shape Number 10 for the medium term makes some sense.

And Cain and Cummings going will soothe relations with Tory MPs.
But there are a slew of problems.

First, a decision on Brexit is still needed. A mess in January will happen in any case. It will be even bleaker for Number 10 in a few months than now.

Second, Corona is still not in check - more Tory MPs will rebel if there are more lockdowns
Third, all this heavily briefed new found focus by Johnson on environmental issues - that’s likely a red rag to a bull for Tory backbenchers

Fourth, Cummings gave Johnson protection and some structure. Who will give him that now?
I cannot shake the thought that Cummings going is a rat jumping from a sinking ship, whatever the spin is to the contrary.

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More from @jonworth

12 Nov
Look, please don't interpret the Cain stuff to some grand plan or foresight or Biden or whatever big trend

Number 10 has two major problems:
- a PM who can't take decisions or structure things
- macho egos
It seems to have all gone like this:
- Number 10 press and comms are a mess
- Johnson likes US system where a spokeperson briefs the press, on the record
- Johnson wants to appoint someone
- Cain wants a lackey, someone suggests Allegra Stratton, and she's a pro. Oddly she wins
- Cain wants Stratton to be answerable to him, she refuses
- Johnson doesn't know what to do, tries to shift Cain upwards to a chief of staff position, unaware how much Cain is hated - even by his own fiancé
- backlash is so strong Johnson can't appoint Cain, so he goes instead
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
OK, time for a deep breath

There is a new #BrexitDiagram Series 5, V6.0.0 - the first for a month! Which itself is interesting, and shows how little things have moved...

But with the Lords vote on the IM Bill clauses behind us, here is where we stand I think
Headline numbers
(compared with V5.0.0, 30.09.2020)

No Deal at end of the year - 43% (⬇️ 13%)
Deal by end of year - 44% (⬆️ 11%)
Lack of clarity / something else - 13% (⬆️ 2%)
This needs some unpacking

Above all the *order* of what happens next is now crucial - the House of Lords will only conclude on the Internal Market Bill right at the end of November, or early December - so the Frost-Barnier negotiations are now the only show that matters
Read 9 tweets
11 Nov
Let's conduct a little thought experiment for a moment

If mainstream Westminster opinion *is* right, and Johnson agrees some kind of Brexit Deal between now and the end of next week...

And this Deal has commitments on level playing field and governance that Tories don't like...
Then what?

Because the House of Commons does not have a formal vote on the Deal (see this from @matt_bevington ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/rat… ), what lever have Tory hardliners got?
Do they grumble and fill our airwaves with effluent?

Or do they rebel more forcefully?

The only route I see is they could write letters of no confidence in Johnson to the 1922 Committee... but 55 letters are needed to trigger a contest. That's surely not going to be reached?
Read 5 tweets
10 Nov
Damn I am 🤮 of people arguing there ought to be no place for Starmer / Blair / Corbyn* in Labour, or no place for AOC / Sanders* for the Democrats, or that Biden is too pragmatic for the Democrats

YOU LIVE IN 2 PARTY SYSTEMS

* - delete according to your political prejudices
I don't live in a 2 party system

Were I in the UK, both Sigmar Gabriel and I would have to be in the Labour Party

But because Germany has a multi party system, my liberal left can pleasantly be in the Grüne, and Gabriel's authoritarian reactionary left in the SPD
Yes, my party might have to go into a coalition with the SPD. But I, as a party member, do not have to pass the time of day with someone like Gabriel

And that's better for *everyone*
Read 5 tweets
10 Nov
I have been thinking a lot about the Internal Market Bill and Brexiter reactions to Biden and the House of Lords vote, and have written a new blog post:

"The Internal Market Bill and Brexiters still unable to face the Brexit Trilemma"

jonworth.eu/the-internal-m…
The essence: I don't think there is a serious denial from the UK Govt that Internal Market Bill breaks international law - I hence disagree somewhat with this from @DavidHenigUK - it's not they think the US and EU are wrong, but that it does not matter

Why does it not matter?

Because Brexiters - Redwood, Johnson himself, Hannan and their ilk - are still one step behind

They still refuse to acknowledge the trade offs in @rdanielkelemen's Brexit Trilemma Image
Read 8 tweets
9 Nov
So here is the full Redwood letter to Biden

johnredwoodsdiary.com/2020/11/08/let…
I'll ignore the first paragraphs and focus on Brexit paragraph
"I must stress that the U.K. does uphold the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland."

But we passed a Bill through the House of Commons that doesn't.

Oh and don't think of an 🐘!
Read 12 tweets

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