That Johnson - backed by Symonds, and having appointed Stratton - is trying to shape Number 10 for the medium term makes some sense.
And Cain and Cummings going will soothe relations with Tory MPs.
But there are a slew of problems.
First, a decision on Brexit is still needed. A mess in January will happen in any case. It will be even bleaker for Number 10 in a few months than now.
Second, Corona is still not in check - more Tory MPs will rebel if there are more lockdowns
Third, all this heavily briefed new found focus by Johnson on environmental issues - that’s likely a red rag to a bull for Tory backbenchers
Fourth, Cummings gave Johnson protection and some structure. Who will give him that now?
I cannot shake the thought that Cummings going is a rat jumping from a sinking ship, whatever the spin is to the contrary.
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Look, please don't interpret the Cain stuff to some grand plan or foresight or Biden or whatever big trend
Number 10 has two major problems:
- a PM who can't take decisions or structure things
- macho egos
It seems to have all gone like this:
- Number 10 press and comms are a mess
- Johnson likes US system where a spokeperson briefs the press, on the record
- Johnson wants to appoint someone
- Cain wants a lackey, someone suggests Allegra Stratton, and she's a pro. Oddly she wins
- Cain wants Stratton to be answerable to him, she refuses
- Johnson doesn't know what to do, tries to shift Cain upwards to a chief of staff position, unaware how much Cain is hated - even by his own fiancé
- backlash is so strong Johnson can't appoint Cain, so he goes instead
There is a new #BrexitDiagram Series 5, V6.0.0 - the first for a month! Which itself is interesting, and shows how little things have moved...
But with the Lords vote on the IM Bill clauses behind us, here is where we stand I think
Headline numbers
(compared with V5.0.0, 30.09.2020)
No Deal at end of the year - 43% (⬇️ 13%)
Deal by end of year - 44% (⬆️ 11%)
Lack of clarity / something else - 13% (⬆️ 2%)
This needs some unpacking
Above all the *order* of what happens next is now crucial - the House of Lords will only conclude on the Internal Market Bill right at the end of November, or early December - so the Frost-Barnier negotiations are now the only show that matters
Do they grumble and fill our airwaves with effluent?
Or do they rebel more forcefully?
The only route I see is they could write letters of no confidence in Johnson to the 1922 Committee... but 55 letters are needed to trigger a contest. That's surely not going to be reached?
Damn I am 🤮 of people arguing there ought to be no place for Starmer / Blair / Corbyn* in Labour, or no place for AOC / Sanders* for the Democrats, or that Biden is too pragmatic for the Democrats
YOU LIVE IN 2 PARTY SYSTEMS
* - delete according to your political prejudices
I don't live in a 2 party system
Were I in the UK, both Sigmar Gabriel and I would have to be in the Labour Party
But because Germany has a multi party system, my liberal left can pleasantly be in the Grüne, and Gabriel's authoritarian reactionary left in the SPD
Yes, my party might have to go into a coalition with the SPD. But I, as a party member, do not have to pass the time of day with someone like Gabriel
I have been thinking a lot about the Internal Market Bill and Brexiter reactions to Biden and the House of Lords vote, and have written a new blog post:
"The Internal Market Bill and Brexiters still unable to face the Brexit Trilemma"
The essence: I don't think there is a serious denial from the UK Govt that Internal Market Bill breaks international law - I hence disagree somewhat with this from @DavidHenigUK - it's not they think the US and EU are wrong, but that it does not matter