Thread by @chrisprener

This is my #Missouri #COVID19 evening update 🧵 for Thursday, 11/12. My website has been fully updated - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

Our 7-day averages continue to climb - now 4059 new cases per day on average statewide, with all-time highs again in #KansasCity and “outstate.” 1/18

The #StLouis Metro (including IL counties) added ~1969 cases per day on average over the past week - far and away the highest volume of cases we’ve seen here. #KansasCity is also adding more than 1000 cases per day on average. 2/18

Remember, though, that these numbers don’t directly compare to the time series in March/April/May because of poor testing access. They are far more comparable to August/September, when cases were far fewer in number. 3/18

Regionally, I continue to be worried about SE MO and the Bootheel, Mid-MO, and a swath of counties across Northern MO. One caveat here - the color ranges assigned to each category change daily, and we’ve seen a huge shift upwards in many counties. 4/18

In Mid-Missouri, the counties whose 7-day averages I’m concerned by remain the same: Boone, Cole, Callaway, Cooper, Moniteau, and Osage counties. Around Lake of the Ozarks, rates of new cases are generally lower but still around 60 per 100k per day on average. 5/18

Around both Joplin and Springfield, the 7-day averages are generally lower than Mid-MO and are more similar to the rates we’re seeing around Lake of the Ozarks - 40 to 60 per 100k per day on average. 6/18

In southeast MO, Ste. Genevieve, Perry, Washington, and Cape Girardeau counties are the top concerns, with rates of new cases between 120 and 150 per 100k per day on average. Counties in the Bootheel have generally lower rates, though New Madrid stands out at 100. 7/18

Likewise, in Northern MO, all-time highs are continuing on a daily basis. Nodaway, Gentry, Marion, Monroe, Pike, and Sullivan are all adding cases at a rates of at least 100 new cases per 100k people per day on average. 8/18

In #KansasCity, a growing number of counties are adding new cases of around 60 new cases per 100k people per day on average. Juts a few weeks ago these rates were largely around 20 new cases per 100k per day. 9/18

Clinton County's mortality spike has subsided for the moment. I had been waiting for nursing home data to update today to see if there was a “hidden” nursing home outbreak driving these deaths - there is not - just 1 LTC death so far. I’m curious about what’s going on there. 10/

In #StLouis, every single county I track closely is seeing their 7-day averages continue to go up. Much like #KansasCity, the rates in the City and the County had been far lower just a few weeks ago. And check out Jersey, Clinton, and Bond counties in Metro East. 11/18

Hospitalization numbers in #StLouis are continuing to deteriorate. Now we’re seeing sustained increases to the 7-day averages in our ICU and ventilation measures. Remember that mortality increases may well lag this increase by a week or so. 12/18

ZIP maps should see 14-day averages for Metro East and Warren County tomorrow. I’m still waiting on Lincoln County to update their dashboard. Also should start updating static maps and plots again soon (perhaps next week). 13/18

Statewide, mortality patterns remain largely unchanged - hanging around 30 new deaths reported per day, with about 10 each in the #StLouis and #KansasCity metros (which include IL and KS respectively).

Also, FYI, the nursing home data have been fully updated today!

14/18

The next edition of my River City Data newsletter drops tomorrow. My interview is with @EmmaCrockerDNP about nursing, health care, and COVID-19 disparities. Sign-up to receive it here - chrisprener.substack.com/p/coming-soon 15/18

I’m also working on a special edition of River City Data with @TimothyWiemken focused on what we know about school transmission, given the Governor’s announcement today. That will be out early next week! 16/18

My standard caveats about uncertainty - infections (1) are historical data that reflect infections 2-3 weeks ago, (2) are biased by testing patterns, (3) may include probable but unconfirmed cases in some counties, and (4) rates are not individual probabilities of illness. 17/18

Additional maps and plots are on my tracking site - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

Next 🧵 will be Tuesday, 11/17. 18/18

UPDATE: per @alexiszotos, these are the updated restrictions being put in place in the county (and presumably the city): 19/18

https://twitter.com/alexiszotos/status/1327061806569943040