Good story about Van Halen, Sammy Hagar, and brands/branding from @trengriffin's 25iq archives...

25iq.com/2018/01/06/sam…
... reminds me that "Brand" (in the financial sense) is the dark matter of financial modeling and valuation

... if no other quantitative measure can explain an asset's relative premium, then we often simply drop that premium in the intangible goodwill bucket

#brands #branding
... which reminds me that we should be reporting CAC and eLTV, while capitalizing most R&D!
... theoretical IRRs and distribution of returns (kurtosis) for capex vs R&D:
... I am dead 🤩🥳🥲🤤:

"EBITDARD [is a] new term [for] EBITDA with R&D treated as if it were capex. Incoherent to exclude capex depreciation expense from an earnings measure but then allow R&D expense to be included. Should be expensed alike."

... value of intangible vs tangible assets in the S&P 500 $spx:

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More from @AnthPB

26 Mar
@sheeraf @CaseyNewton would love to continue our convo – had two questions:

1️⃣ scale legal system to exact individual user liability (in cases of legal abuse a la brandenburg or libel)?

2️⃣ more democratic solution for everything else (instead of centralized corporate arbiters)?
... I proposed arbitration as least bad solution for 1️⃣ and @sheeraf's Myanmar example was best exhibit of what I called the "geopolitical problem"

... but can we talk about the US only for a sec?
... I know, 'home country bias', etc; but 1️⃣ is in the spirit of domestic progress on these issues in light of congressional hearings – specifically the *legal* aspects of free speech on social media per US law – so I wanted to focus on that
Read 4 tweets
29 Dec 20
Empirical research about index fund flows, ETFs, and a self-reinforcing size factor bias...
$SPY $VOO $IWB $IWM #distortion #distortedmarkets
... a 1-sigma spike in fund flows predicts +3.5pp outperformance for size ("SMB" = small minus big)
... dollar volume matters as much as (if not more than) market cap:

e.g. speculators in singlenames can be marginal buyers inflating prices (with asymmetric size bias due to bandwagon a la $aapl $tsla) by reducing supply for more structural ETF demand

Read 4 tweets
23 Dec 20
$arkk $arkg becoming the dog wagging the tail...
... more $arkk pieces from this week:

@DaveNadig interview with ARK COO did a deep dive into the ETF family's liquidity/capacity hypotheticals (spoiler alert: ARK's ETF-mandated transparency means investors are buying $arkk, et al to own the underlying)

etftrends.com/ark-coo-tom-st…
Read 19 tweets
10 Oct 20
/1 One caveat to this @Jesse_Livermore and @patrick_oshag...

Friedman's maxim "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" is somewhat apt here -- albeit somewhat inaccurate in its original context (i.e. money supply causation)...

/2 @Jesse_Livermore correctly draws a line between fiscal and monetary stimulus vis a vis inflation...

However, we did not see much spending or inflation spike after the 2008 or 2020 fiscal stimuli because of *expectations*...
/3 @ReformedBroker made observations similar to yours in his recent post (thereformedbroker.com/2020/10/07/les…)...

and it *sounds* correct because of what we know about marginal propensity to consume vs save (MPC vs MPS) from classical econ...

but it's *not* accurate in COVID-19 economy... Image
Read 23 tweets
19 Feb 20
@Wike_Meinstein @johnloeber @BlairReeves @nikillinit Yes, there are only 1.1k MAUs, but **all subscribers are automatically enrolled**...

If you're a subscriber and want to participate, just go to the Forum URL, which is run atop Discourse, and you just use your email and PW from your sub and there's already a profile for you...
@Wike_Meinstein @johnloeber @BlairReeves @nikillinit This might have caused a bit of a disturbance in the force (which I can understand and respect), but, to wit...

The Stratechery Forum has now removed the "Users" page where you could once view the aforementioned community data 🤷‍♂️...

@Wike_Meinstein @johnloeber @BlairReeves @nikillinit ...nevertheless, I can now confirm that the exact number of active Stratechery subscribers is 25,189 per a remaining loophole (the "Groups" option in the Forum) 🏁
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec 19
/1 Thread: With Disruption Theory having now gone mainstream, Bob Iger went to school on the Innovator's Dilemma...

#DisneyPlus $DIS $NFLX $AMZN $T #streamingwars

cc @modestproposal1 @GavinSBaker @bradsling @RichLightShed @benthompson @Rich_Barton @ballmatthew @kidkapital
/2 To gauge expectations, Iger clearly articulated his Disney+ strategic roadmap (and associated tradeoffs) to the Street...

communicating how $DIS's LT franchise opportunity offset its ST financial consequences...
/3 which amounted to an (intrinsically) high probability for Disney to reestablish a moat amidst the (lowercase "disruptive") threat of streaming...

and investors discount that fw such that $DIS (the stock) didn't dive despite sequentially deteriorating financials/guidance...
Read 11 tweets

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