I have had so many calls and messages about the fall in #AVCT @avacta's share price over recent weeks.

Let me be very clear: I am entirely unconcerned by this fall.

As the below Tweet shows, I had a long-term target of ~£20 BEFORE Avacta announced its #COVID19 workstreams. 1/n
The issue is - as is becoming more and more often the case in the world of micro-caps - people are buying companies like #AVCT without having first decided if it is a trade or an investment position.

I cover the importance of this distinction in my profile picture. 2/n
I myself am a trader, professionally, and actually hold very few long term investments. The volatility and lack of quality, accessible research renders AIM an excellent trading ground.

But @avacta #AVCT is an investment. In the next few weeks, it'll be submitting... 3/n
...its CTA for the pro-dox trial, and top line data for that should come in July/August next year.

If anyone can tell me more important clinical data for the welfare of mankind - to have ever been received by an AIM listed company - I am all ears.

Even though it's just... 4/n
...Phase I, it is easy to appreciate how positive data would demand a valuation of multiples of #AVCT @avacta's current mkt cap. Especially if it is listed on NASDAQ by then - which seems a reasonable assumption, given the recent US broker appointment.

Over the next 7-8...5/n
...months, until that top line data arrives, #AVCT will be selling #COVID19 diagnostics products in massive quantities, in my view.

The market seems to have forgotten that Adeptrix is already selling the #COVID19 BAMS test, as RUO, in conjunction with MS specialist Bruker. 6/n
Would these two really be marketing the BAMS test to customers, were it not already proven to be highly accurate?

These sales are generating revs for #AVCT right now.

Re: the critical product, the LFT: the delay, and thus the missed rev, has been the chief cause of dismay...7/n
...for private investors. I am as frustrated as anyone that it has taken this long for @avacta and @bbi_solutions to complete the TT. Yet we continue to see other rapid antigen tests being ripped into by the science community for their poor quality. So it seems #AVCT is... 8/n
...perhaps doing the right thing, by aiming for perfection, prior to launching its LFT.

The argument that angry PIs are proffering is: by striving for perfection, #AVCT has already missed out on hundreds of millions of pounds in revenue this year.

That is true. But the... 9/n
...other side to the argument is that the market for #COVID19 rapid tests will be around for years, regardless of successful vaccines coming online.

Heathrow's CEO seems to agree with this view of #AVCT's Alastair Smith, and not with angry PIs: 10/n

Accordingly, by taking the time to develop a first-in-class rapid antigen LFT - that can be bought by individuals for their medicine cabinets, and be the go-to diagnostic for doctors in hospitals and GPs - @avacta #AVCT is essentially sacrificing several hundred millions...11/n
...in revenue this year, for perhaps billions in revenue over the next three years.

#AVCT has very recently stated that it'll be commencing clinical validation for its LFT shortly. 12/n

This impending revenue from its various #COVID19 diagnostic products will fund the development of #ACT's Therapeutics div - which itself has the potential to reshape the landscape of oncology. No more equity dilution, and financing multiple clinical studies simultaneously. 13/n
Retail investors simply need to exercise patience.

Personally, I think that right now, at 102p / £260m mkt cap, #AVCT is the cheapest it's ever, ever been. As such, I have been more shares today in family accounts to hold for the longer term. 14/n

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More from @MylesMcNulty

9 Nov
An extraordinary day. Firstly, fabulous initial data from Pfizer's vaccine, demonstrating it's 90% effective. An immense scientific breakthrough and a boon for humanity.

From an investment perspective (the raison d'être of this account!): a day of joy and misery, equally! 1/16
Global indices absolutely rocketed - 27/100 FTSE100 Cos ended the session at 10%+. Most sectors were up, whilst precious metals miners and #COVID19-centric stocks got obliterated. The latter group included treatment and testing stocks, and at home/online entertainment/living 2/16
Personally, my PF took an almighty spanking, owing to #AVCT being my largest position by a distance, and also having recently opened a position in #SNG.

A high quality vaccine was always the key risk to #COVID19 plays, but for me, that has always been a medium term risk. 3/16
Read 16 tweets
9 Nov
Exciting development for #N4P today - Launch of Nuvec Oncology Treatment Programme.

This potentially opens up a third colossal market, after vaccine delivery x2 (injection and oral).

The really exciting thing about this Co is that its asset, Nuvec, is already developed and..1/4
...largely refined. It now need only prove consistent in-vivo success for its three target applications (oncology injection; vaccine injection; vaccine oral), and it can start out-licensing Nuvec.

And that's the core of the investment proposition: Nuvec is a platform tech. 2/4
It can be licensed out to multiple parties for multiple targets/applications. #N4P will receive upfront and milestone payments as the licensee takes the drug / vaccine (using Nuvec as the delivery platform) through the clinic.

N4P's cost base is exceptionally low; yet... 3/4
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov
At home antigen testing for #COVID19.

Detection of pre-symptomatic / asymptomatic cases - to a high degree of accuracy - is key.

99% specificity is a must, and ideally sensitivity of 92-93%+.

There should also be a method of logging the result in an objective manner...1/n
...elsewise individuals with positive results could disregard government instructions and go out for work / socialising regardless.

@avacta #AVCT's Affimers are an antibody mimetic - designed to overcome the limitations of monoclonal antibodies.

The evidence indicates... 2n
...that Affimer-based lateral flow tests will likely have a higher specificity than mAb-based LFTs, and possibly higher sensitivity too. Moreover, they are rapid to develop, cheaper to manufacture, and are robust (a benefit both for supply chain issues and for shelf-life).

Read 5 tweets
27 Sep
#AVCT interims tomorrow.

Comprehensive updates on all work streams of the Therapeutics and Diagnostics divisions will be provided.

Naturally, the content will likely be dominated by the various #COVID19 products under development - and of those, many market participants... 1/n
...(esp. new holders) will only have eyes for the LFT.

I think it’s important to appreciate the number of short term traders - and nervous retail investors - there are in #AVCT at present.

In my view, the near-term SP movement (which I think will be strong, either way)... 2/n
...will be driven by one very simple - but critical - matter: whether #AVCT has been permitted to disclose in its interims the UK Gov’s involvement in the rollout of the LFT.

I think the majority will agree that that involvement is beyond question.

Project #Moonshot... 3/n
Read 9 tweets
24 Sep
New nano-cap position taken via placing: #BIOM @BiomePlastics.

A brief intro, with in depth notes to follow in due course:

BIOM has two operating divisions: Bioplastics (biodegradable / compostable plastics) and Stanelco RF Technologies (advanced radio frequency systems).

Interims out today, along with a placing at 120p for £1.1m gross. Assuming a successful GM, mkt cap at the current SP of 165p will be £6.1m.

Net cash post GM will be ~£1.8m, so enterprise value at 165p will be ~£4.3m.

My investment is solely based on the Bioplastics div..

..which is a rapidly growing biz operating in a rapidly expanding market that I believe will become an increasingly hot topic going forward.

I'll be posting more about the products and target markets in due course, but here's a good place to start:


Read 11 tweets
24 Sep
We now know that #AVCT's Affimers are being used in at least 5 diagnostics products for #COVID19:

- LFT (with Cytiva)
- BAMS (with Adeptrix)
- ELISA (in-house)
- Microtox BT (with #SKIN)
- Microtox PD (with SKIN)

Working prototypes for all.

And people still doubt Affimers? 1/9
For BAMS and Microtox BT and PD, #AVCT's work is largely complete. It will simply be providing a regular supply of Affimers to Adeptrix and #SKIN, and enjoy steady royalties (which, as many of us are beginning to realise, could be for much longer than initially anticipated).

This frees up mgmt's time to focus on the proprietary tests, the (all-important!) LFT and the ELISA (which I believe most are under-estimating the earnings potential of).

Whilst some might point out that none of the 5 products have yet been commercialised, I would argue... 3/9
Read 9 tweets

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