Thread by @MylesMcNulty

I have had so many calls and messages about the fall in #AVCT @avacta's share price over recent weeks.

Let me be very clear: I am entirely unconcerned by this fall.

As the below Tweet shows, I had a long-term target of ~£20 BEFORE Avacta announced its #COVID19 workstreams. 1/n

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1235132588441907200

The issue is - as is becoming more and more often the case in the world of micro-caps - people are buying companies like #AVCT without having first decided if it is a trade or an investment position.

I cover the importance of this distinction in my profile picture. 2/n

I myself am a trader, professionally, and actually hold very few long term investments. The volatility and lack of quality, accessible research renders AIM an excellent trading ground.

But @avacta #AVCT is an investment. In the next few weeks, it'll be submitting... 3/n

...its CTA for the pro-dox trial, and top line data for that should come in July/August next year.

If anyone can tell me more important clinical data for the welfare of mankind - to have ever been received by an AIM listed company - I am all ears.

Even though it's just... 4/n

...Phase I, it is easy to appreciate how positive data would demand a valuation of multiples of #AVCT @avacta's current mkt cap. Especially if it is listed on NASDAQ by then - which seems a reasonable assumption, given the recent US broker appointment.

Over the next 7-8...5/n

...months, until that top line data arrives, #AVCT will be selling #COVID19 diagnostics products in massive quantities, in my view.

The market seems to have forgotten that Adeptrix is already selling the #COVID19 BAMS test, as RUO, in conjunction with MS specialist Bruker. 6/n

Would these two really be marketing the BAMS test to customers, were it not already proven to be highly accurate?

These sales are generating revs for #AVCT right now.

Re: the critical product, the LFT: the delay, and thus the missed rev, has been the chief cause of dismay...7/n

...for private investors. I am as frustrated as anyone that it has taken this long for @avacta and @bbi_solutions to complete the TT. Yet we continue to see other rapid antigen tests being ripped into by the science community for their poor quality. So it seems #AVCT is... 8/n

...perhaps doing the right thing, by aiming for perfection, prior to launching its LFT.

The argument that angry PIs are proffering is: by striving for perfection, #AVCT has already missed out on hundreds of millions of pounds in revenue this year.

That is true. But the... 9/n

...other side to the argument is that the market for #COVID19 rapid tests will be around for years, regardless of successful vaccines coming online.

Heathrow's CEO seems to agree with this view of #AVCT's Alastair Smith, and not with angry PIs: 10/n

bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

Accordingly, by taking the time to develop a first-in-class rapid antigen LFT - that can be bought by individuals for their medicine cabinets, and be the go-to diagnostic for doctors in hospitals and GPs - @avacta #AVCT is essentially sacrificing several hundred millions...11/n

...in revenue this year, for perhaps billions in revenue over the next three years.

#AVCT has very recently stated that it'll be commencing clinical validation for its LFT shortly. 12/n

https://twitter.com/avacta/status/1326130771539714049

This impending revenue from its various #COVID19 diagnostic products will fund the development of #ACT's Therapeutics div - which itself has the potential to reshape the landscape of oncology. No more equity dilution, and financing multiple clinical studies simultaneously. 13/n

Retail investors simply need to exercise patience.

Personally, I think that right now, at 102p / £260m mkt cap, #AVCT is the cheapest it's ever, ever been. As such, I have been more shares today in family accounts to hold for the longer term. 14/n