When the transition period ends in 6 weeks, the UK can move to a thin trade Deal with the EU, or No Deal
Both options are practically fraught
Even a Deal comes with some disruption - especially at Dover. And businesses have to cope with the headaches of leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union
No Deal is all of that, plus tariffs
It's bad or very bad
And now we heard the deadline to conclude negotiations is slipping again... it was meant to be tomorrow. Now it's next week or even first week of December
With enough time, so the argument goes, the pressure will come to bear - and a Deal will be struck
I am not sure. For 2 reasons.
First, with so little time for final preparations, businesses face a nightmare either way. The sigh of relief thanks to a Deal will be more and more tempered by the "damn how much time and money we wasted preparing No Deal!"
Little gain for Johnson
Second, probably more important, communication for Johnson becomes harder and harder the more the clock ticks.
It took Johnson 8 months to pivot from "oven ready deal" to screaming about the implications of the WA and the NI Protocol.
Can he do the same in a matter of weeks?
In other words:
Early December - "We forced the EU to back down! This is a great Deal!"
Early January - "The EU is the reason Dover is blocked up! Evil EU!"
Also on the EU side, even if Barnier stays the course, I am not sure all Member States will. After all they too - and the businesses in their countries - could do with some clarity too
All of this leads me to the inexorable conclusion that No Deal is still likely
Johnson can then lay the blame for the chaos with the EU (not sure it will stick, but he will try). He and Gove free themselves from the responsibility for the chaos on 1 January
Johnson is not driven by what is best for the UK
He is driven by survival
And I am not sure his best hopes of surviving are along the Deal route
/ends
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I'm sorry for my hard line on grace periods, implementation periods for 🇬🇧, post 1 Jan - but 🇪🇺 must resist them
While I have some sympathy for the mess facing Brits and firms, the cause of this problem is completely and squarely with 🇬🇧 Government
Until 🇬🇧 Govt owns (or is forced to own) the mess it has caused there will be no change
And yes, it might require a metaphorical rubbing of Michael Gove's nose in it, in the bottom of a portaloo on the hard shoulder of the M20. But so be it
As @SnellArthur rightly put it, it's odd that "'taking back control', is giving the French port authorities the ability to bring your economy to its knees"
Sorry, that boat has sailed. 5 months ago actually.
If the UK asks for this now, the EU's going to go 🤣 we offered you this - 2 years if you wanted it! - and you refused in June. Do tell us why we should give this to you now please?
Also, related - a grace period is *not* the same as extending transition. You could likewise call it an implementation period.
But the essence of this - that Britain left at a time of its own choosing, but was itself ill prepared - remains true.
The EU could offer such periods to the UK, but there would be a political and even possibly a direct financial price demanded from the EU for that - and that I suspect is something the UK side is not going to contemplate.
My timeline is full of earnest think tankers saying thinks along the lines of "Boris Johnson wants a Deal because he wants a success" and "Business / the economy wants a Deal, so Johnson does"
I am really far from sure this is the case
Here's why
A slightly more structured way to put it is as follows:
Boris Johnson wants success
Boris Johnson is Prime Minister
Prime Ministers are considered successful by doing the right thing for the country's economy
A Deal is better for the economy
= Johnson will aim for Deal
But this does not hold
The changes to the WA, and the NI Protocol, that Johnson agreed last year were *more damaging* to the economy than May's Deal
Hard Brexit that Johnson has long advocated is more damaging to the economy than a Soft Brexit
This week, just has been the case for the past 2 months or so:
EU to UK - this is broadly what we would need to do a Deal. EU stands together on this. A little room for changes at the margin, but take it or leave it.
UK to EU - ummm, ahh, sovereignty, no ratchet clauses, fish.
And sorry, yes, this is flippant. In reality at the working level, there has been a bit of progress, but the central issues are as they've been for ages.
Is the EU intransigent here? A little. But it knows what it cannot compromise on. And it's much bigger than UK is.
The EU essentially knows it can survive No Deal better than the UK can. That its economy will take a lesser hit, and populations in the Member States will not blame the EU but will point the finger at Johnson.
That Johnson - backed by Symonds, and having appointed Stratton - is trying to shape Number 10 for the medium term makes some sense.
And Cain and Cummings going will soothe relations with Tory MPs.
But there are a slew of problems.
First, a decision on Brexit is still needed. A mess in January will happen in any case. It will be even bleaker for Number 10 in a few months than now.
Second, Corona is still not in check - more Tory MPs will rebel if there are more lockdowns
Third, all this heavily briefed new found focus by Johnson on environmental issues - that’s likely a red rag to a bull for Tory backbenchers
Fourth, Cummings gave Johnson protection and some structure. Who will give him that now?