Thread by @jonworth

My timeline is full of earnest think tankers saying thinks along the lines of "Boris Johnson wants a Deal because he wants a success" and "Business / the economy wants a Deal, so Johnson does"

I am really far from sure this is the case

Here's why

A slightly more structured way to put it is as follows:

Boris Johnson wants success
Boris Johnson is Prime Minister
Prime Ministers are considered successful by doing the right thing for the country's economy
A Deal is better for the economy

= Johnson will aim for Deal

But this does not hold

The changes to the WA, and the NI Protocol, that Johnson agreed last year were *more damaging* to the economy than May's Deal

Hard Brexit that Johnson has long advocated is more damaging to the economy than a Soft Brexit

If the economic consequences of Brexit mattered, the Government would have been one hell of a lot better prepared than it is

Hauliers, farmers, supermarkets, fishermen... you name it they're screaming at what's (not) happening, and complaining everything is under prepared

After months, years even, neglecting this, are they going to turn?

Doubtful

Not least because *even if* they Deal, there is going to be a lot of disruption come January, and that would be in part seen as Number 10's fault

Instead - and sorry this is not very numbers-y, enlightenment-y, thinktank-y or even establishment-y - but for Johnson there is a different measure of success than for other PMs (or at least the balance is different)

He will do what he can best get away with within the Tory Party, and what he thinks he can best communicate

That is his measure of success

So how does that look?

Communication of No Deal is simpler - point the finger at the EU. None of the messy deal, oh, oops, we regret it malarkey that we saw for the WA and complaining about it 8 months later

No Deal is also, probably, easier in the party. ANY Deal Johnson would return with would be lambasted by the ERG and the hardliners, and there is not an equivalent group of softer Tories - because he purged all of them

I don't know if the hardliners would have the 55 MPs that would be needed to trigger a no confidence vote in Johnson as Tory PM, but there are enough of them to make a problem for him - see when the Brexit spartans became lockdown opponents

Also Johnson's likely more pragmatic future rival for the leadership - Sunak - is unlikely to knife him now, as letting Johnson fail on Brexit would help his chances. But the appetite of the hardliners for conflict seems to know no bounds

I hope I am wrong. A Deal is still better than No Deal.

But assuming that Johnson is motivated by the economic wellbeing of the country, and that can predict his likely direction, strikes me as really off the mark.

/ends