This week, just has been the case for the past 2 months or so:
EU to UK - this is broadly what we would need to do a Deal. EU stands together on this. A little room for changes at the margin, but take it or leave it.
UK to EU - ummm, ahh, sovereignty, no ratchet clauses, fish.
And sorry, yes, this is flippant. In reality at the working level, there has been a bit of progress, but the central issues are as they've been for ages.
Is the EU intransigent here? A little. But it knows what it cannot compromise on. And it's much bigger than UK is.
The EU essentially knows it can survive No Deal better than the UK can. That its economy will take a lesser hit, and populations in the Member States will not blame the EU but will point the finger at Johnson.
The UK meanwhile, if it believed its own public rhetoric, ought to have walked away already - but it hasn't, because it doesn't (or not completely anyway). This isn't Frost's fault, but Johnson's.
The pros and cons of a deal are known.
How much the EU can move it pretty well known.
So UK Government - basically Johnson - make up your mind and stop prevaricating.
/ends
(Oh and No Deal is not a permanent state anyway - it's a question of how many months of chaos the UK wants to have after 1 Jan.)
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When the transition period ends in 6 weeks, the UK can move to a thin trade Deal with the EU, or No Deal
Both options are practically fraught
Even a Deal comes with some disruption - especially at Dover. And businesses have to cope with the headaches of leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union
My timeline is full of earnest think tankers saying thinks along the lines of "Boris Johnson wants a Deal because he wants a success" and "Business / the economy wants a Deal, so Johnson does"
I am really far from sure this is the case
Here's why
A slightly more structured way to put it is as follows:
Boris Johnson wants success
Boris Johnson is Prime Minister
Prime Ministers are considered successful by doing the right thing for the country's economy
A Deal is better for the economy
= Johnson will aim for Deal
But this does not hold
The changes to the WA, and the NI Protocol, that Johnson agreed last year were *more damaging* to the economy than May's Deal
Hard Brexit that Johnson has long advocated is more damaging to the economy than a Soft Brexit
That Johnson - backed by Symonds, and having appointed Stratton - is trying to shape Number 10 for the medium term makes some sense.
And Cain and Cummings going will soothe relations with Tory MPs.
But there are a slew of problems.
First, a decision on Brexit is still needed. A mess in January will happen in any case. It will be even bleaker for Number 10 in a few months than now.
Second, Corona is still not in check - more Tory MPs will rebel if there are more lockdowns
Third, all this heavily briefed new found focus by Johnson on environmental issues - that’s likely a red rag to a bull for Tory backbenchers
Fourth, Cummings gave Johnson protection and some structure. Who will give him that now?
Look, please don't interpret the Cain stuff to some grand plan or foresight or Biden or whatever big trend
Number 10 has two major problems:
- a PM who can't take decisions or structure things
- macho egos
It seems to have all gone like this:
- Number 10 press and comms are a mess
- Johnson likes US system where a spokeperson briefs the press, on the record
- Johnson wants to appoint someone
- Cain wants a lackey, someone suggests Allegra Stratton, and she's a pro. Oddly she wins
- Cain wants Stratton to be answerable to him, she refuses
- Johnson doesn't know what to do, tries to shift Cain upwards to a chief of staff position, unaware how much Cain is hated - even by his own fiancé
- backlash is so strong Johnson can't appoint Cain, so he goes instead
There is a new #BrexitDiagram Series 5, V6.0.0 - the first for a month! Which itself is interesting, and shows how little things have moved...
But with the Lords vote on the IM Bill clauses behind us, here is where we stand I think
Headline numbers
(compared with V5.0.0, 30.09.2020)
No Deal at end of the year - 43% (⬇️ 13%)
Deal by end of year - 44% (⬆️ 11%)
Lack of clarity / something else - 13% (⬆️ 2%)
This needs some unpacking
Above all the *order* of what happens next is now crucial - the House of Lords will only conclude on the Internal Market Bill right at the end of November, or early December - so the Frost-Barnier negotiations are now the only show that matters
Do they grumble and fill our airwaves with effluent?
Or do they rebel more forcefully?
The only route I see is they could write letters of no confidence in Johnson to the 1922 Committee... but 55 letters are needed to trigger a contest. That's surely not going to be reached?