This evening the EU's Heads of State and Government are meeting via #EUCO video call
#Brexit is not formally on the agenda, but let's look at how some of the key players in the Brexit end game are feeling just now...
Johnson
Nervously waiting. Cannot bear to take a decision. Hoping something will come along to save him.
Frost
Limited. Cannot go too far in talks as any compromises would be needed from Johnson. Keeps talking the talk.
Barnier
Mildly annoyed at the slow pace, but knows he has the solid backing he needs. And if deadlines slip he can live with it.
von der Leyen
Stands shoulder to shoulder with Barnier. Ready for any call to start No Deal planning. Essentially calm though.
Charles Michel
Distracted (by the Hungary/Poland/rule of law issue) - doesn't want to have to deal with Brexit *as well*. Wants the European Council to take a united front on all the big questions.
Angela Merkel
Always unflappable. Hungary/Poland/rule of law issue comes close to her as Hungary is in the EPP. Wants a calm Brexit and negotiated Brexit outcome, will not rock the boat.
Micheál Martin
Pensive. Currently has no way to save things at the last minute as his predecessor Varadkar managed with Johnson. But knows the EU stands behind him, and above all wants solutions.
Mark Rutte
Steely but annoyed. Knows Netherlands is better prepared for Brexit than UK is, but pragmatic solutions to the negotiations impasse seem some way off still.
Emmanuel Macron
🤔
Let's face it: patience with the British is running low in the EU. And time is running out two. And Macron has been hardline on fisheries already...
... and he's sometimes tempestuous, even when it's against his own best interests.
What Macron is going to turn up this evening?
If anything is to get interesting on #Brexit this evening this is where it's likely to happen I reckon.
I'm sorry for my hard line on grace periods, implementation periods for 🇬🇧, post 1 Jan - but 🇪🇺 must resist them
While I have some sympathy for the mess facing Brits and firms, the cause of this problem is completely and squarely with 🇬🇧 Government
Until 🇬🇧 Govt owns (or is forced to own) the mess it has caused there will be no change
And yes, it might require a metaphorical rubbing of Michael Gove's nose in it, in the bottom of a portaloo on the hard shoulder of the M20. But so be it
As @SnellArthur rightly put it, it's odd that "'taking back control', is giving the French port authorities the ability to bring your economy to its knees"
Sorry, that boat has sailed. 5 months ago actually.
If the UK asks for this now, the EU's going to go 🤣 we offered you this - 2 years if you wanted it! - and you refused in June. Do tell us why we should give this to you now please?
Also, related - a grace period is *not* the same as extending transition. You could likewise call it an implementation period.
But the essence of this - that Britain left at a time of its own choosing, but was itself ill prepared - remains true.
The EU could offer such periods to the UK, but there would be a political and even possibly a direct financial price demanded from the EU for that - and that I suspect is something the UK side is not going to contemplate.
When the transition period ends in 6 weeks, the UK can move to a thin trade Deal with the EU, or No Deal
Both options are practically fraught
Even a Deal comes with some disruption - especially at Dover. And businesses have to cope with the headaches of leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union
My timeline is full of earnest think tankers saying thinks along the lines of "Boris Johnson wants a Deal because he wants a success" and "Business / the economy wants a Deal, so Johnson does"
I am really far from sure this is the case
Here's why
A slightly more structured way to put it is as follows:
Boris Johnson wants success
Boris Johnson is Prime Minister
Prime Ministers are considered successful by doing the right thing for the country's economy
A Deal is better for the economy
= Johnson will aim for Deal
But this does not hold
The changes to the WA, and the NI Protocol, that Johnson agreed last year were *more damaging* to the economy than May's Deal
Hard Brexit that Johnson has long advocated is more damaging to the economy than a Soft Brexit
This week, just has been the case for the past 2 months or so:
EU to UK - this is broadly what we would need to do a Deal. EU stands together on this. A little room for changes at the margin, but take it or leave it.
UK to EU - ummm, ahh, sovereignty, no ratchet clauses, fish.
And sorry, yes, this is flippant. In reality at the working level, there has been a bit of progress, but the central issues are as they've been for ages.
Is the EU intransigent here? A little. But it knows what it cannot compromise on. And it's much bigger than UK is.
The EU essentially knows it can survive No Deal better than the UK can. That its economy will take a lesser hit, and populations in the Member States will not blame the EU but will point the finger at Johnson.