Thread by @ChiefExecCCC

The PM's statement contains a serious set of commitments. If they're delivered, they’ll take a big chunk off UK emissions over the next decade and beyond.

As ever - the detail needs to follow. But for now, I'm pleased. We should celebrate days like this when we get them.

Others have done the detailed commentary (thank you @DrSimEvans). Main thing to say is that this is a vision with some *breadth*.

We’ve become used to piecemeal announcements – this is more like it.

We have meaningful new commitments on transport, power, industry, hydrogen, heat, CCS and woodland creation. It's a statement that a more fully-fledged UK strategy is now emerging.

Notable that the framing is 'jobs and industry'. This is the Prime Minister telling us that the economic recovery from Covid and the UK’s continued prosperity can rest on green jobs and green investment.

Hard to argue with that.

It’s not framed as an environmental mission.

Absent on jobs is how the transition overall can be well-managed. Employment will grow in many areas, but it will shrink in others, so skills support and retraining very important. Employment impacts – particularly in manufacturing industries – can be regionally concentrated.

The 2030 commitment to phase-out sales of petrol and diesel cars and vans is *massive*. It’s a transport commitment, a consumer commitment, and an industry commitment. Crucially, it will drive fundamental change in the whole energy system. So its impact can’t be overstated.

We haven't modelled a separate target for plug-in hybrids, but it really needs to be a niche thing after 2030.

By 2030, 40% of cars on the road will need to be zero carbon, to be on track for Net Zero. A big challenge to get infrastructure ready and consumer incentives right.

We’ll see 600,000 heat pumps a year deployed by 2028. That’s significant – may not be the deployment rate we need to get to, but it’s a good start.

I understand the Future Homes Standard will come in from 2023, which is great.

Good that the Green Homes Grant has been extended

The hydrogen and CCS commitments are decent too – very much in line with the idea that solutions must be piloted at scale.

We lack the info on the market mechanisms that will deliver commercial investment though. I'm hoping the fabled Energy White Paper will fill the gaps here.

I was expecting more on nuclear, so that is notable by its absence. Perhaps that’s for another day? I think I learned more from Rolls Royce a few days ago about new nuclear than I did from today’s statement. No words on Sizewell was a surprise.

On woodland creation, planting 30,000 hectares of trees every year is now a real Net Zero commitment – still at the bottom end of what we think we’ll need, but great to see.

Lots of new employment too - which can begin immediately.

But, oh boy, we have to reach a better, more grown-up discussion of costs.

Some of the commentary today has been woeful on this.

Govt probably *undersold* the investment impact of these plans (a first). Private offshore wind investment alone would dwarf the £12bn they refer to.

We need to separate the issues.

There are investment costs - majority will be private investment, with some public investment alongside.

Then there's the net impact on costs across the economy. There’s a huge fuel saving and energy efficiency gain from Zero carbon investments.

And then we need to separate that from the actual economic impacts. These could be very positive if all this investment is front-loaded and occurs as we recover from the Covid economic impacts, while there's spare capacity in the economy.

No – it won’t cost £1trillion. Such a misleading figure, so it's time to put it to bed.

And there’s a lot more than £4bn of investment taking place as a result of this package.

We’ll have more on this on December 9th. It’s going to be one of the major themes of our next report.

But overall, this is a good statement from the PM.

A vision statement rather than a plan. But necessary nonetheless.

This is the first part of what I hope we’ll now see in the remainder or 2020.

Next up is the Spending Review and Infrastructure Strategy - and hopefully the Energy White Paper.

And a new international commitment with a strong 2030 UK NDC. We’ll advise on that in a few weeks.

2021 and beyond needs to be about delivery, delivery, delivery.

It can be done.

Join us on the 9th December to find out how.
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