Jon Worth Profile picture
20 Nov, 6 tweets, 1 min read
Why is fishing so important to 🇬🇧-🇪🇺, in comparison to 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵?

Because 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇧🇪🇮🇪 boats have been fishing the same waters, and you need to disentangle that

And you can land a 🐟 in Grimsby, 🚛 it fresh to Paris. You can't so easily from 🇨🇦 or 🇯🇵
Why is level playing field so important to 🇬🇧-🇪🇺, in comparison to 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵?

Because companies in Europe have integrated supply chains, and geographic proximity means likelihood of undercutting each other is considerable

An integrated supply chain 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵 is harder
Why is police cooperation so important to 🇬🇧-🇪🇺, in comparison to 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵?

Because 🇬🇧 has been doing it as part of 🇪🇺, and a lot more people and goods are exchanged between the two than 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵
Why are enforcement mechanisms so important to 🇬🇧-🇪🇺, in comparison to 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵?

Because of the matters in the previous tweets! 🇬🇧 and 🇪🇺 are closer, more integrated, more dependent!
And behind all of this there's the direction of travel: pretty much all trade negotiations bring countries *closer*

Brexit takes the 🇬🇧 and 🇪🇺 further apart
Yes, of course there are *some* precedents to be found in 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 and 🇪🇺-🇯🇵 deals that could apply to 🇬🇧-🇪🇺. But there is plenty that is different as well.

So please don't just go "but 🇪🇺 didn't demand that from 🇨🇦!" It's tedious.


• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Jon Worth

Jon Worth Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jonworth

19 Nov
I'm sorry for my hard line on grace periods, implementation periods for 🇬🇧, post 1 Jan - but 🇪🇺 must resist them

While I have some sympathy for the mess facing Brits and firms, the cause of this problem is completely and squarely with 🇬🇧 Government
Until 🇬🇧 Govt owns (or is forced to own) the mess it has caused there will be no change

And yes, it might require a metaphorical rubbing of Michael Gove's nose in it, in the bottom of a portaloo on the hard shoulder of the M20. But so be it
As @SnellArthur rightly put it, it's odd that "'taking back control', is giving the French port authorities the ability to bring your economy to its knees"
Read 9 tweets
19 Nov
This evening the EU's Heads of State and Government are meeting via #EUCO video call

#Brexit is not formally on the agenda, but let's look at how some of the key players in the Brexit end game are feeling just now...

Nervously waiting. Cannot bear to take a decision. Hoping something will come along to save him.

Limited. Cannot go too far in talks as any compromises would be needed from Johnson. Keeps talking the talk.
Read 13 tweets
19 Nov
Sorry, that boat has sailed. 5 months ago actually.

If the UK asks for this now, the EU's going to go 🤣 we offered you this - 2 years if you wanted it! - and you refused in June. Do tell us why we should give this to you now please?
Also, related - a grace period is *not* the same as extending transition. You could likewise call it an implementation period.

But the essence of this - that Britain left at a time of its own choosing, but was itself ill prepared - remains true.
The EU could offer such periods to the UK, but there would be a political and even possibly a direct financial price demanded from the EU for that - and that I suspect is something the UK side is not going to contemplate.
Read 4 tweets
18 Nov
The logic of No Deal for Johnson

A thread
When the transition period ends in 6 weeks, the UK can move to a thin trade Deal with the EU, or No Deal

Both options are practically fraught
Even a Deal comes with some disruption - especially at Dover. And businesses have to cope with the headaches of leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union

No Deal is all of that, plus tariffs
Read 12 tweets
16 Nov
My timeline is full of earnest think tankers saying thinks along the lines of "Boris Johnson wants a Deal because he wants a success" and "Business / the economy wants a Deal, so Johnson does"

I am really far from sure this is the case

Here's why
A slightly more structured way to put it is as follows:

Boris Johnson wants success
Boris Johnson is Prime Minister
Prime Ministers are considered successful by doing the right thing for the country's economy
A Deal is better for the economy

= Johnson will aim for Deal
But this does not hold

The changes to the WA, and the NI Protocol, that Johnson agreed last year were *more damaging* to the economy than May's Deal

Hard Brexit that Johnson has long advocated is more damaging to the economy than a Soft Brexit
Read 13 tweets
16 Nov
This week, just has been the case for the past 2 months or so:

EU to UK - this is broadly what we would need to do a Deal. EU stands together on this. A little room for changes at the margin, but take it or leave it.

UK to EU - ummm, ahh, sovereignty, no ratchet clauses, fish.
And sorry, yes, this is flippant. In reality at the working level, there has been a bit of progress, but the central issues are as they've been for ages.

Is the EU intransigent here? A little. But it knows what it cannot compromise on. And it's much bigger than UK is.
The EU essentially knows it can survive No Deal better than the UK can. That its economy will take a lesser hit, and populations in the Member States will not blame the EU but will point the finger at Johnson.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!