Thread by @pmdfoster

So this week I went to Ashford International Truckstop to see how @transportgovuk was getting on readying truckers for the end of #Brexit transition in six weeks time....so what did I find? Mixed news. /1

ft.com/content/07b58f…

@transportgovuk Well, the frontline of frontline of the battle to get Britain ready for its post-Brexit borders runs through a 20ft portable cabin outside the caf/shop area...perfect for snagging passing truckers /2

@transportgovuk Only one problem - none of them speak any English. I mean hardly a word. Most are Czech, Romanian, Hungarian, Polish....my French and Spanish no use at all.

So the contractors trying to press information into their hands used ipads +google translate/3

@transportgovuk From the 2 hours I was there, it was pretty tough going. Not a single trucker entered the cabin for instruction - tho @transportgovuk tell me that since the sites opened on Nov 2 "almost 1,000" have had one-to-one consultations /4

@transportgovuk There are 45 of these sites now, but even allowing for scaling up...bearing in mind that 3,500,000 trucks a year (85 per cent from EU) used the Kent Corridor every year. You gonna need a lot of cabins! /5

@transportgovuk So first thing that strikes is the language barrier - what @kentpoliceroads are going to do when they pull one of these guys over for not having a Kent Access Permit I really don't know. Maybe more iPads and Google translate? /6

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads So what else did learn when we spoke to the truckers - thanks here to @JakubKrupa for impromptu translator skills, and a Hungarian friend who must remain nameless. You saved the day. My years as Europe Editor were invaluable.../7

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa First Istvan, an owner-operator from Budapest said what @RHARichardB has been warning about - that if it's chaos he just wont come. Too much hassle, too much cost. It will become harder/more expensive to get freight to UK. FWIW he reckons (big grin) it will "chaaaos" /8

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB Second takeaway via Janusz from Poland - not bothered with @transportgovuk cabins (too tired, too hungry) coz anyway its up to his employer in Poland to train him. But admits the company hasn't yet...so that's another angle. UK can work hard, on preps but is in hands of EU too /9

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB Like Istvan, Janusz reckoned he'd not bother coming if it was chaos - BUT on a positive note said that if it was like Switzerland (which he does go to) then, well, OK. It's a pain, but 30 mins border processing like in Switzerland is bearable /10

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB Perhaps unsurprisingly, the British trucker from Armoric Freight Int. in Plymouth (bombarded by Check, Change, Go) adverts said they were more prepared, partly because they ship a lot of food products, so know they'll need paperwork/health certs etc /11

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB The boss, Marc Payne, was actually pretty optimistic about the January queues, believing that the 7,000 lorry 'reasonable worst case scenario' was unlikely to come to pass because lots of businesses had stockpiled /12

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB Marc (aged 69) remembers what it was like pre-Single Market days, and is not happy to be turning back the clock - BUT the big difference now is computers/automation. SO if trucks have the right docs, they should just scan a barcode and be on their way.../13

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB One thing this won't change is cost - Mr Payne has employed more people, subscribed to computer systems, set up as a customs agent - all with no revenue - but next year those costs will have to be recouped. That means more cost to do exactly what used to be done for free/14

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB Whether the public will notice a) higher costs b) that #Brexit has festooned the country in the very EU 'red tape' bureaucracy that Brexiteers so derided all these years I really don't know. But I am NOT one of those who buys it will be armageddon. /15

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB A 'no deal' will be a lot messier though. Mr Payne has applied for ECMT permits from the International Road Transport Office in case a deal isn't done (which should include mutual recognition of licenses)...but let's all pray it doesn't come to that. /16

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB The other issue, of course, is that while Mr Payne might have all his papers straight, his lorries might well get stuck behind others that are less well prepared. /17

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB Given that the UK has basically awarded itself a six month 'transition' period for incoming goods, it may all come down (as Armoric driver Pete Wallis says) to "how the French treat us". Blowback from French ports is likely to be the immediate cause of delays.../18

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB It is fascinating - nay, unnerving - how uncertain everyone is about how this is going to play out.

If the @DavidGHFrost @BorisJohnson are weighing up a 'no deal' and how dicey it would be, I honestly don't really know how. /19

@transportgovuk @kentpoliceroads @JakubKrupa @RHARichardB @DavidGHFrost @BorisJohnson Because I spend most of my days asking people with skin in the game what's going to happen Jan-Mar, and there is very little confidence or consistency in their predictions.

If it was me, I'd err on the side of caution, but then I've never been much of a buccaneer ENDS