These strands represent the lines of division that gave rise to the #conflict:
* unionist/nationalist within NI,
* north/south across the border, &
* British/Irish.
The B/GFA formalised cooperation across these lines.
2/13
& the EU dimension is most important to north/south cooperation.
4/13
+ B/GFA makes the European Convention on #HumanRights [Council of Europe, but a legal obligation of EU membership] a #safeguard for the B/GFA.
To ensure that ‘all sections of the community are protected’.
This is why it is included in the NI/IRL #Protocol.
5/13
But above all else, the #principles that underpin the B/GFA are key.
See the Declaration of Support signed up to by the parties & both govts:
“to strive in every practical way towards reconciliation & rapprochement within the framework of democratic & agreed arrangements.”
6/13
"Democratic & agreed arrangements" are absolutely key here.
There's something unimpeachable about what is negotiated, what is confirmed by democratic process.
It cannot be in tune with the B/GFA if it undermines democratic & agreed arrangements.
Who would disagree?
7/13
Second: ‘partnership, equality & mutual #respect’ as the basis of relationships across these islands.
What ever smacks of distrust, inequality, disrespect is undermining of the B/GFA.
This includes #Scotland & #Wales… they are equal members in the British-Irish Council.
8/13
Third: ‘exclusively #democratic & peaceful means of resolving differences on political issues’.
Elected representation has to matter.
Democratic process must work.
The rule of law must be revered.
Publicly promulgated. Equally enforced.
Undermine that & the B/GFA withers.
9/13
One thing m.important than we may have thought before:
There are no formal dispute resolution mechanisms in the B/GFA.
The courts overseeing it are national supreme courts, not an international court.
If UK or Ireland breaches it, there are no intl. legal means of recourse.
10/13
There is another principle worth mentioning: #consent.
“Northern Ireland in its entirety remains part of the United Kingdom & shall not cease to be so without the consent of a majority of the people”.
Nothing in the #Protocol changes the constitutional status of NI.
11/13
We are left on the faultline of future UK/EU relations.
But when all is said & done, the most critical relationship for peace in NI is the British-Irish relationship.
Devalue, jettison, undermine, stymie that relationship & you'll undermine the foundations of peace in NI
12/13
The softer the Irish land border & the softer the Irish sea border, the better it is for N.Ireland.
It would be weird if a political sociologist in N.Ireland didn't have something to say about the #NIcensus2021 results released today, wouldn't it?!
& a pity if there weren't slides to go along with those comments...
NI population is up, more households with fewer people in each (2.44 ave).
There is more ethnic and language diversity than before but, oh my, it's still not very much. 2/9
"How would you describe your national identity" - a comparison here between 2011 & 2021.
A drop in British only (down 8 percentage points), and a rise in Irish only (up by 4 % points). 3/9
Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.
There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.
Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓 #AE22 🏖️
1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?
What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?
Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶
Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳
What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8