Thread by @hayward_katy

So what's happening to views on Irish unification in NI?

More from @ARK_info #NILifeTimes survey #nilt2019 📊

This incl. long-standing Qs plus some new ones about whether certain things would encourage or discourage people from voting in favour of a #UnitedIreland.
THREAD
1/7

#NILifeTimes (face-to-face, random sampling) has different results from internet polling e.g. @LucidTalk re: proportion wanting Irish unity.

It's reasonable to say our figure (c.1/4) prob. too low, theirs (c.1/2) prob. too high, & the 'real' figure is somewhere in-between.

2/7

The great value of NILT is that it is a time series survey, ie. same Q & method over 20+yrs.

Overall, there hasn't been a dramatic surge in support for Irish unity.

Devolution remains preferred long-term policy (even though it wasn't functioning when Q asked).
#nilt2019

3/7

When asked how they’d vote in a referendum on Irish unification tomorrow, 6% wouldn’t vote & 14% didn't know.

When asked what might encourage a Yes vote, a strong ROI economy was the main draw.

The NHS is something people seem loath to lose in such a vote. #borderpoll

4/7

Unsurprisingly, there's a big difference along religious grounds in answer to these Qs,
i.e. Catholics open to persuasion (esp. to rejoin EU), Protestants not so much.

The results from those of No Religion fell pretty much between those of C&P.
Data: ark.ac.uk/nilt/2019/Poli…
5/7

Age was a significant variable on these Qs on border poll, with younger people more readily swayed in their vote across all factors, esp liberal laws*.

*NB new NI laws were announced during #nilt2019 so we had to adjust these 2 Qs, see technical note ark.ac.uk/nilt/2019/

6/7

So, loads of interesting stuff, inc.
* Don’t underestimate contd. importance of 🇪🇺 for a large portion of the population in NI

* Don’t overestimate significance of 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿independence for NI unionism

Now. I've been up to my oxters in data & this'll be my last #nilt2019 thread 😴
7/7