Thread by @OldigesCH

Happy to show my latest work with @_SudhaNarayanan & @shreesaha00 on #NREGA in @Ideas4India & @firstpost
hopefully of interest to @rozi_roti @aashishg_ @Ugentilini @AninditaAdhik13 @StrandedWorkers
Our findings related 2 #poverty and #migration are below
ideasforindia.in/topics/poverty…

In the wake of the #COVID19 lockdown and the large-scale return of #Migrant workers to rural areas, #NREGA played a crucial role. After lockdown restrictions in April 2020, #NREGA person-days expanded substantially before they reduced back to pre-lockdown levels

Are these additional person-days distributed across districts in ways that are commensurate with their population shares of #outmigration and #poverty ?
This is important in a context where historically poorer states have utilised less funds than richer states. 5 major findings:

#1 More new job cards in high outmigrant districts. About 55% of the new job cards were issued in districts that fell in the top third of districts based on outmigrant share signifying a surge in demand. (migration data from @clem_imbert, further credits to @ayushbipinpatel )

#2 Although high outmigration districts account for 72.2% of all outmigrants, they account for only 54.8% of the person-days generated during May-August 2020.

#3 Administrative #rationing is substantially higher in districts that have higher shares of outmigrants and amongst these districts, rationing is higher in poorer districts

#4 We decompose the expansion into: extensive margin (more households receive work) and intensive margin (enrolled households got more days of work). For May 2020, we find that about 55% of the expansion in person-days, relative to May 2019, has come from the extensive margin.

#5 Between May and August 2020, the #NREGA provided 31 days per working household; yet this is equivalent to just 13.5 days per rural household on average.

Conclusion: Our analyses show that districts that account for a higher outmigration share are not differentially ramping up the programme; instead implementation patterns are consistent with past records of person-days generated or rationing rate.
firstpost.com/india/mnrega-c…

Conclusion2: It is important for the Government of #India to continue its support of the #NREGA that serves as a `diffused economic stimulus’ and to enhance the capacity of districts that need it most to expand and maintain the #NREGA.

Initial work on return #migrants that motivated our work is the article by @clem_imbert ideasforindia.in/topics/governa…
and the amazing work done by @StrandedWorkers and @NREGA_Sangharsh

#5.1 Of course this comes with an informative map! Person-days per rural household: highest rates are in districts of #Chhattisgarh , #Telangana & #AndhraPradesh & #Rajasthan #mysummerofmakingmaps thanks to @ayushbipinpatel for his patience