Ali Vaez Profile picture
2 Dec, 6 tweets, 1 min read
There seems to be some confusion about the legislation Iranian parliament approved today and the Guardian Council turned into law. So here are the key fact:
mashreghnews.ir/news/1151218/%…
1. 20% enrichment should start immediately and the govt is required to accumulate min of 120kg of 20% LEU every month
2. The govt should immediately increase below 5% enrichment to 500 kg per month (up from the current rate of around 170 kg)
3. Within 3 months, the govt has to install 1,000 IR-2m and 164 IR-6 and to increase the latter to 1,000 within a year.
4 & 5 Launch the uranium metal production factory in 5 months; Submit a plan to the parliament within a month to revive the Arak reactor’s original design.
6. Suspend the Additional Protocol's implementation if the P4+1 fails to deliver on sanctions relief by Feb 2nd.

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More from @AliVaez

19 Nov
We @FPI_SAIS are releasing a series of reports on Iran Under Sanctions. Iran’s economy has been sanctioned in one form or another since the 1979 revolution. Yet little systematic knowledge exists on the short- and medium-term impacts of sanctions [Thread].
rethinkingiran.com/iranundersanct…
2| The focus has often been on a few metrics that flare up with sanctions tightening: currency depreciation, inflation, and recession, followed by increases in unemployment & poverty. But the more comprehensive picture is lost in political cacophony around the policy's merits.
3| This is the gap that @FPI_SAIS is filling with its Iran Under Sanctions project, which is a 360 degree in-depth view on the implications of sanctions for Iran. This 1st-of-its-kind research provides for an instructive case study on the use of sanctions as a tool of statecraft.
Read 22 tweets
27 Apr
Absent from the debates around the Trump administration's plans to become a JCPOA participant after it officially terminated its participation in May 2018, this time to terminate the JCPOA once and for all, misses an important point: Iran's reaction [Thread] 👇🧵
2| I put this question to @araghchi at Moscow Nonproliferation Conference back in Nov. He stated clearly that re-designating Iran under UN Charter's Chapter VII as a "threat to international peace and security" will lead Iran to revise its nuclear doctrine ifpnews.com/return-of-un-s…
3| That means only one thing: withdrawing not just from the JCPOA, but also from the NPT altogether. Some think this is a bluff as it would undermine Iran's long-held position that it is not seeking nuclear weapons. They are wrong...
financialtribune.com/articles/natio…
Read 7 tweets
8 Apr
می‌خواهید بدانید چرا علی رغم معافیت کالاهای بشردوستانه از تحریم‌ها، مبادله این اجناس تحت تاثیر تحریم‌های آمریکا قرار می‌گیرد؟ و چرا از مقامات ارشد سابق دولت آمریکا گرفته تا دبیرکل سازمان ملل و سازمانهای امدادرسانو همسایگان ایران خواستار لغو یک سری از تحریم‌ها هستند؟

رشته توییت:
۱. پیش از همه چیز، خوب است بدانید که به گفته وزیر امورخارجه آمریکا ۸۰٪ اقتصاد ایران تحریم است و به علت همین تحریم‌های گسترده و جریمه‌های سنگین نقض تحریم، تاجران و بانک‌های خارجی به صورت کلی و فارغ از موضوع معامله، رغبت کمی برای تجارت با ایران دارند.
washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e…
۲. مبادله کالاهای بشردوستانه مستلزم طی کردن روندهای پیچیده و ارزیابی‌های موشکافانه است تا اطمینان حاصل شود که نه تنها موضوع معامله، بلکه دریافت کننده/پرداخت کننده نیز مشمول تحریم‌های آمریکا نیستند. مثال:کانال مالی سوئیس که تا کنون تنها یک تراکنش مالی در آن اتفاق افتاده.
Read 8 tweets
16 Jan
New from @CrisisGroup: our annual (maybe final) #IranDeal status report. The JCPOA is hanging by a thread: US has abrogated it, Iran has violated it, & Europe has put it on notice. A US-Iran tactical detente needed for breaking escalatory cycle. [Thread]
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
2| We look at the two sides of the JCPOA's implementation record over the past year - nuclear commitments by Iran, and sanctions relief commitments for Iran. These are the two key elements that make up the deal, and they're dying by a thousand cuts.
3| In May 2019, Iran announced it would start curbing its nuclear compliance if the economic normalization expected from the deal doesn’t materialize. It has since carried out 5 steps rolling back its compliance, most recently on 5 Jan. nytimes.com/2020/01/05/wor…
Read 20 tweets
13 Jan
It would be a risky gambit if France/Germany/UK were to trigger the #IranDeal's Dispute Resolution Mechanism (DRM). Here's why [Thread]:
2| First question: What's the DRM?

Under JCPOA Article 36, a party to the deal can claim significant non-compliance by another party. Claim goes to Joint Commission, ministerial level/3-person advisory board, and eventually to UNSC if not resolved.

bit.ly/2tZ8jVG
3| Article 36 was devised to tackle technical breaches, not a political crisis prompted by U.S. exit & Article 37 is a poison pill. But duration of each stage in the process can be extended by mutual consent, though the end state of UNSC sanx sanpback could happen within 65 days.
Read 9 tweets
3 Jan
Some thoughts on #Soleimani's assassination [Thread]
1| first, this was not a far-fetched scenario. @khamenei_ir used to call him the living martyr for a reason. Almost every US admin in the past 2 decades had him in their crosshairs but calculated that the risks outweigh the potential benefits timesofisrael.com/mossad-chief-s…
2| But the war-mongers that this isolationist US president surrounded himself with were very keen on this objective for a while, thinking mistakenly that it would neuter and neutralize Iran's regional strategy: aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/i…
Read 14 tweets

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