It's the 3rd hump—its apex and duration yet unknown—that is breaking the backs of America's health workforce along with the nightmarish number of new infections and fatalities recorded each day.
adapted from @COVID19Tracking data
Today we broke the US pandemic thresholds for both hospitalizations, over 100,000 and deaths, over 2,700 deaths. @COVID19Tracking
It's horrifying and we should be pulling out all the stops to prevent further M & M. We can do this if there is the will.
The deaths lag the hospitalizations, the spurious dip related to the holiday data issue. Their close tracking is unequivocal in this 3rd surge.
The hospital and healthcare workforce capacity has been exceeded in many parts to the country, requiring urgent intervention
To do this we need to stop the spread of ~200,000 new confirmed cases again today. Universal mask mandates, enforced, distribute surgical mask supply and rapid home tests out to all households now, shut down hot spots, cluster bust, etc, whatever it takes
To elaborate on the concept of superhuman vaccine immunity:
Each of the 3 examples in our piece are for different reasons. 1. HPV—best, since the human response is weak 2. Tetanus—small amounts of toxin don't elicit strong response) 3. H Flu—the bacterium is sugar coated
2/
This is different from vaccine efficacy.
Take measles. The natural human response to infection provides durable efficacy but the vaccine requires multiple shots and is without lifelong protection. 3/
This will go down in history as one of science and medical research's greatest achievements. Perhaps the most impressive.
I put together a preliminary timeline of some key milestones to show how several years of work were compressed into months.
There are several points noteworthy related to this timeline: 1. Moderna had a head-start, so why didn't their Phase 3 trial finish first?
Part of #OperationWarpSpeed (OWS), they were requested to slow down enrollment to get better minority representation nytimes.com/2020/11/21/us/…
Randomized, placebo-controlled trial of convalescent plasma(CP) for severe #COVID19: "no significant differences...in clinical status or overall mortality" @NEJM
"We believe the use of CP as a standard of care....should be reevaluated." nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
And also today yet another negative trial for hydroxychloroquine as a prophylactic intervention.
The most over-studied, under-performing, repurposed drug in modern times. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Incredible. A faculty doctor @UCLAHealth@dgsomucla
says we are too cautious by demanding evidence for #COVID19 medications. And that hydroxychloroquine has strong data to support its use. That we're killing patients. wsj.com/articles/too-m…