Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

* we hit 50k total cases today, 272 days since 1st
* the next 50k are just 69-86 days away
* 3255 new cases this wk (#1 wk yet)
* 12.9%+ (#1 wk yet)
* 500+ hospitalized (#1 wk yet)
* 37 deaths (#3 wk so far)
* but vaccines are coming

1/

Let's zoom out and look at the shape of the local pandemic since the beginning.

Note that this graph of cases by test date only goes through Nov24.

So we were in the worst of it...before Thanksgiving.

2/

And since November just ended, let's zoom out to look at the local pandemic by month.

[Note: New metrics were introduced mid-Sept.]

3/

And here are the past 10wks.

Cases are up over 300% in this time.
Tests are only up 53%.

And so that positivity rate has risen from 5.4% to 12.9%, the highest yet.

The 37 deaths this wk is the 3rd highest, after just the 52 Oct4-10 & the 38 Aug16-22.

4/

We reached 50,000 cases today.
It took us 272 days to get there.

At our current pace, we'll reach 100,000 sometime between Feb12 & Mar1. That's just 69-86 days away.

And that's just based on our current growth rate. But that rate will likely increase bc of the holidays.

5/

The first 10k cases took over 100 days.
20k, 28 days
30k, 52 days
40k, 52 days
50k, 25 days

60k will come in 18-22 days.
70k, 15-20 days after that.
80k, 14-16 days later.
90k, 12-15 days.
100k, 10-13 days.

And this is just at our current rate.

6/

We avg'd 465 new cases per day this wk.
It was the worst wk on record.

Unless something drastic happens, we'll be up to 600 new cases per day within the next 3wks. That's sometime between Christmas & New Year.

7/

This is why the CDC Director, Dr. Redfield, said that the next three months (Dec, Jan, Feb) will be the "most difficult time in the public health history of this nation."

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1334227816662126594

8/

Dr. Redfield talked about the stress that will be placed on our healthcare system over the next 3months.

But look at the stress being placed on our local hospitals right now. This is nearly 50% more covid patients than we saw at our summer peak. And it's only getting worse.

9/

That's why local hospitals suspended "elective" surgeries this week.

[NOTE: I am not related to and have never met the MLH chief of staff, Dr. Richard Aycock, mentioned in this article.]

commercialappeal.com/story/news/hea…

10/

And as a reminder, it's not just residents of Memphis & Shelby County who depend on local hospitals.

The surrounding rural areas in West TN, N MS, & E AR all depend on metro hospitals. And, as you can see here, the surrounding counties are doing worse than we are.

11/

And yet our governor refuses to issue a state-wide mask mandate, though, even as he deploys the National Guard to serve as nurses, covid testers, & ambulance drivers.

tennessean.com/story/news/202…

12/

The state is also having major data processing problems, so much so that it's taking over a wk to report new cases. This makes contact tracing impossible.

So Hamilton County has stopped even trying to trace contacts.

timesfreepress.com/news/local/sto…

https://twitter.com/VUHealthPol/status/1334522132232015874

13/

Locally, our health dept is asking ppl to report their test results to dept (individuals are notified directly, while the dept doesn't get the results until the state processes the data, but that is taking over a wk) & do their own contact tracing.

14/

And yet restaurants, bars, & strip clubs remain open.

On a related note, here's a new study showing that transmission can occur via droplets among diners sitting up to 21ft apart, with just 5min of exposure & no contact.

Indoors = Not Safe

Period.

jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10…

15/

I say this often, but I have a lot of sympathy for local officials. They need tax revenue to prevent layoffs to police, fire fighters, teachers, sanitation workers, & more.

And so they have to keep as much biz open as possible.

They have no good options.

16/

Speaking of sanitation workers, did you hear that the city is cutting recycling & dumping it all in the trash bc 1 in 4 workers are home, sick or in quarantine, bc of covid?

And if you are upset about the recycling part, rather than the sick workers, check your priorities.

17/

Anyway, I support local restaurants. I order takeout as much as I can afford. You should too.

Chef Tam's last night, BBQ Shop last wk. Hueys, Coletta's, Mulan, Liquor Store, TACOnGanas, Global Cafe, Young Ave, Maciel's, Pirtle's, Second Line, Alex's, Celtic, Las Delicias.

18/

I'm not mad at them.

I'm mad at Congress for not providing financial relief & support for local govt, small biz, & workers.

More specifically, I'm mad at Senate Republicans, who refuse to care about ppl suffering & dying. They never get to claim "pro-life" ever again.

19/

A lot of ppl are confused as to why restaurants, bars, & strip clubs are open...while schools are closed.

Well, it's actually the other way around: schools are closed precisely bc restaurants, bars, & strip clubs are open.

20/

You can't open everything, so you have to prioritize.

And we prioritized biz.

And sacrificed our children.

Simple as that.

This is not "pro-life." And we never get to look down on ancient cultures for child sacrifice ever again.

21/

Here is William Blake's portrayal of Genesis 22, a text so relevant today.

The angel has already provided the ram. There is a way out of child sacrifice.

Isaac is trying to get Abraham to pay attention.

But Abe is still unsure. He's not ready to give up child sacrifice.

22/

Today, all these church-going Republican Senators face the same situation as Abraham.

There is a solution. They don't have to sacrifice our children. They can provide relief.

But they can't let go of their belief that govt is the problem, not part of the solution.

23/

Here is what case rates are looking like for students & staff in elementary, middle, & high schools that are open, by the way.

Numbers are rising to dangerous levels, mirroring community spread, especially in high school & among staff at every level.

24/

We keep being told that transmission isn't happening during school. But this superintendent from the Boston metro area says he's starting to see otherwise.

wcvb.com/article/massac…

25/

So, no, I do not think we even entertain the idea of returning to school in January. If we act now, though, maybe we can come back safely after Spring Break.

26/

I'm going to end w/a word of hope.

In the Christian church, we just entered Advent, the season of waiting, hoping, anticipating, & preparing for that which is to come.

I wrote this piece last year & think it still applies today.

firstresponses.blogspot.com/2019/12/advent…

27/

We know what the end of the story looks like. Vaccines are coming, if we can just wait a little while longer.

But there is plenty of story yet to be written.

The question is, how patient will be? And how much death & disease will we allow as we wait?

~ fin ~

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