First, cases grew tremendously from October to November, while testing was largely flat. That does not bode well for the weeks ahead. It likely means that we have missed a large number of cases.
2) Deaths kept rising after this summer's peak in cases. That says we can likely expect deaths to rise in Dec. Also, the Oct spike in deaths likely represents cases from the summer, which suggests that we could expect deaths to continue even after our current wave subsides.
[Note that they added new metrics in mid-Sept, which I didn't include until the first full month, Oct. This new metric is a better data point, but since they haven't released the historic data, it's difficult to compare more recent testing data from previous months].
Oh, and this is what hospitalization looked like...
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tl;dr
* cases +260% since sept30, testing only +52%
* positivity rate up from 5.2% to 10.7%
* hospitalizations at record-highs, staffing is a problem
* vaccines are on the way...if we can make it to spring
1/
We've had problems with the case data since Nov1.
Read here:
In the meantime, hospitalization numbers are the best we've got. And we've been setting records literally for wks now.
"Elective" surgeries are being canceled. Staffing is a problem.
2/
Here's the most up-to-date data we have on cases. This is a graph of daily cases by the date the test occurred.
A few things here... 1) The most recent data here is a wk old. 2) Bc of reporting delays, cases are still trickling in. 3) This is the worst we've seen.
It's pretty bleak. Cases are growing exponentially, much faster than tests. Hospitalizations are at an all-time high. And we're avg'ing 1400 covid deaths each day.
2/
But @youyanggu estimates that the true number of cases is 3.3 times more than what's being reported.
FYI, Youyang had the most accurate covid model in existence. He's switched from forecasting to "nowcasting," estimating what *is* happening rather than predicting what will.
tl;dr
* 424 new cases per day (45.2 per 100k)
* +105% over 4wks, +205% over 6wks
* we're in the worst wk of the pandemic yet
* we've lost control & are about to drive off a cliff, but there's no one at the wheel
It's pretty bleak. Cases are growing exponentially, much faster than tests. Hospitalizations are at an all-time high. And we're avg'ing 1200 covid deaths each day.
2/
But @youyanggu estimates that the true number of cases is 3.8 times more than what's being reported.
FYI, Youyang had the most accurate covid model in existence. He's switched from forecasting to "nowcasting," estimating what's happening rather than predicting what will.
tl;dr
* task force says data for past wk not accurate
* but hospitalization getting really bad (equal to the first wk in july)
* big question, re: covid, is what trump does now: does he step back & let experts lead, or go chaos-mode?
1/
Let me start by saying that change is coming.
Trump has been a complete disaster on covid.
But whatever you think of Biden, we know that he will let the public health experts take the lead.
2/
The big question here is how soon?
Will Trump go full chaos-mode for the next two months?
Or will he step back & hand over the reins, at least with regard to covid?
tl;dr
* crisis level: 270 cases/day (28.8 per 100k)
* that's +73% over 1wk, +138% over 3wks
* it's also back above where Harvard says shutdowns are necessary
* our current 36k total cases will double as early as Jan1