Thread by @verumandverus

BREXIT THREAD - A FISH TAIL

So what’s all the fuss about? Best place to start is here:

"Under the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) the UK *ceded* control of fisheries within the UK Exclusive Economic Zone (UKEEZ) to the EU"

This is the crux of the matter. Why?

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In 2018 1.945m Tonnes of Fish & Shellfish were landed in the UKEEZ

By Fleet, in Tonnes

UK - 555,000 (29%)
EU27 - 860,000 (44%)
Other - 527,000 (27%)

71% landed by non-UK boats due to the CFP and/or European Commission agreements with 3rd countries

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UK boats have less than 1/3rd of the UKEEZ pie

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Trend Exhibit 1 - Total weight landed in UKEEZ 2015-2018

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Trend Exhibit 2 - Percentage of Catch in UKEEZ 2015-2018

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How has share of the catch changed over recent years?

Between 2016-2018 UK share of UKEEZ has declined by 16% while non-UK share has increased by 8%

Leaving the EU & more specifically the CFP will allow us to reverse this trend

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So who catches what in the UKEEZ? In Tonnes:

250k Demersal (Cod, Haddock, Monks, Plaice, Sole, Hake) - approx 50% is non-UK
1,400k Pelagic (Mackerel, Herring) - >75% is non-UK
150k Shellfish (Crab, Scallop)- >80% is UK
180k Industrial (Sandeels, Pout) - 98% is non-UK

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So what could happen once we leave the EU/CFP?

Some Global context:

Fleet - 2018 Total Catch - % of Global Total - Rank

UK - 707k T 0.8% 25th
EU27 - 4,609k T 5.5% 6th
Norway - 2,489k T 2.9% 10th

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Remember we only land 29% of the total in our own UKEEZ

While it is believed Norwegian and Icelandic boats catch about 84% & 95% respectively of the fish and shellfish landed from their own national EEZs

What would that look like for the UK with a similar share?

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Norwegian Scenario (84%) from UKEEZ in 2018 & 0 elsewhere in EUEEZ the UK’s total global catch would increase to almost 1.7m Tonnes. That’s well over twice the actual 2018 catch & would have lifted the UK to 13th globally

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Icelandic Scenario (95%) from UKEEZ in 2018 & 0 elsewhere in EUEEZ the UK’s total global catch would increase to almost 1.9m Tonnes. That’s 2.7x the actual 2018 catch & would have lifted the UK to 12th globally

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With the same catch parameters applied in just the UKEEZ our catch increases by 194% under the Norwegian scenario & 233% under the Icelandic scenario

That’s what all the fuss is about.

#BrexitAFishTail #NoDealBrexit

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Acknowledgements:

Many thanks for the fantastic research by Ian R. Napier at ⬇️

.@obe_park

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