Thread by @verumandverus

THREAD

With The Corbyn Experiment ending on Saturday it’s worth looking at what he is leaving behind & how/where it happened

In 12 charts I have plotted Labour’s GE performance & other things between 1918-2019

#TheRiseAndFallofLabourInCharts #LabourLeadershipElection

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I’m adding here some people who may find this of interest

@Keir_Starmer @RLong_Bailey @lisanandy @PeoplesMomentum @UKLabour @jeremycorbyn

And others who will most likely care about it

@blue_labour @labourleave @johnmcternan @SocialM85897394 @Fox_Claire @GoodwinMJ

2/14

Chart #1

This shows the deficit between Labour’s vote share in GE2019 in all regions of Great Britain versus the best they have ever done in all GEs since 1918. Unsurprisingly the only close correlation is in London. What happened?

#TheRiseAndFallofLabourInCharts

3/14

Chart #2

Until Blair came on the scene London & the rest of England were fairly well correlated but look what happens from 1997 onwards This is the Labour Reformation which begins to turn the party towards the metros, especially London. Want more proof?

4/14

Chart #3

In 1997 Blair, a local MP at the time, won 64% of the North East vote. In 2017 the London & North East vote share converges and in 2019 London becomes Labour’s most popular area.

The working classes are deserting in droves. Is it Corbyn’s fault?

5/14

Chart #4

Here are Labour’s 3 best performing leaders since 1918 and Corbyn in 2019.

Is it a coincidence that when a party turns so far to the Left the British people turn their back. Later we will see the same happens to Michael Foot in 1983.

Corbyn. Guilty as charged.

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Chart #5

The ONLY place where Gordon Brown increased Labour’s vote in 2010. Corbyn has managed to more than half the vote since then & even the @Conservatives have more MPs than @scottishlabour Once unthinkable

Only if @theSNP implodes can Labour survive.

7/14

Chart #6

Once a rock solid Labour heartland regularly winning between 50-60% vote share. In 28 GEs since 1918 the current total of 40.93% has only been lowered on 6 occasions.

Labour seemed not to care Wales voted for Brexit

#TheRiseAndFallofLabourInCharts

8/14

Chart #7

The Red Wall (Part 1)

Post being a relatively fledgling party Labour finds itself in its deepest trough since The Great Depression, Michael Foot & Gordon Brown.

Remember @RLong_Bailey & @lisanandy let this happen

#LabourLeadershipElection

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Chart #8

The Red Wall (Part 2)

A very similar story to The North 👆. Similarly but for the métropoles and the student towns this would have been much much worse. The Wall has fallen.

@jessphillips knew..

#TheRiseAndFallofLabourInCharts

10/14

Chart #9

Dead Ground (Part 1)

Not since Harold Wilson in 1970 has a Labour leader won more than 30% vote share. Not even Blair. What chance, if any, have any of the current candidates got of improving this situation? On current trajectory - low to none.

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Chart #10

Dead Ground (Part 2)

One of the most solid Brexit regions in the whole country with 50/58 constituencies voting Leave. @Conservatives hold 52 of those seats. There is no way back for Labour. Especially if architect of their arch-Remain ruse @Keir_Starmer wins

12/14

Chart #11

The only good-ish news for Labour in December. Tempered by a slight loss in vote share & net 0 seats gained
The bad news is the Tories held on to 13 Remain seats in what should have been Labour’s sweet spot. London alone won’t win them a GE

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Chart #12

2019 deficit to all-time peak

Wales -32.5% (peak 1966)
Scotland -62.8% (peak 1966)
England (ex-LON) -34.1% (peak 1951)
Great Britain -33% (peak 1945)

London -11.7% (peak 2017)

Labour is London o/wise 50+ yrs past its peak

#TheRiseAndFallofLabourInCharts

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