Think of it like a narrow ⛰ path in Barnier's home region, Savoie 🇫🇷
Settle down, and let me tell you the story "The path to the Deal"
The path ahead lasts 15 days
At the end of the path lies Deal
Rocks or crevices might block the path, slowing you down
Worse still you could fall off the cliff to No Deal
Or you might run out of time to reach your destination, and need some extra bridge to Deal
The locals call the first part of your path POLITICAL AGREEMENT
It lasts between now and Friday 18 Dec
The rough map is known here - fisheries and level playing field are the bumps on the path. A farmer called Johnson keeps sovereignty rocks onto the path
Everyone ignores the sovereignty rocks, but no one knows how big the LPF bumps are. Some bumps look huge to some mountaineers, but tiny to others
But everyone knows: fail to get to the end of POLITICAL AGREEMENT by Friday, and you will not get to Deal by the end of the year
Around the corner then comes LEGAL SCRUBBING
Preparations for the ascent of this part of the path have been ongoing for months already, but no one knows quite how big the holes in this part of the path really are
The problem here is that you need to speak to a lot of people to understand this part of the path - 27 of them in fact. Any of them could suddenly discover a crevice in the path that you cannot cross, or takes some days to circumnavigate
What is definitely clear is you need to clear the LEGAL SCRUBBING part of the path by 21 or 22 Dec, because otherwise you will run out of time to get to Deal
After LEGAL SCRUBBING you have to take a couple of days to recover, in a copse of fir trees with peculiar lighting, and building up strength by eating turkey
Here you also need to send letters to the 27 people who helped you earlier, to get them to sign off the route ahead
On 28 Dec you need to call on the support of an unusual, noisy, not always powerful, and large tribe who are best known for their strange migration patterns between Brussels and Strasbourg. The tribe is difficult to predict as they often fight among themselves
Normally this tribe only lets someone through the PARLIAMENT RATIFICATION gate after weeks of debate and anguish. But this tribe also fears No Deal at the bottom of the valley, so after loud complaints might let you through
Wait until after 28 Dec to try to pass the PARLIAMENT RATIFICATION gate, and all sorts of people suddenly put their own gates on the path as well, possibly also forcing you into a major and time consuming detour via Wallonia. This is a path you do not want to take
Some of your sherpas have pointed out that a distantly related tribe, normally found reclining on archaic green benches, could pose a problem here
Despite making noise akin to a flock of mountain 🐑 they have not succeeded in blocking any path since December 2019
So it's 31 Dec
Well done!
You have followed the path to Deal! 👏
If you did not make it in time, things are very rocky indeed
If you need extra days to get to Deal, you can bridge there by paying hefty tariffs for a while, unless you can work out how to use an obscure paragraph of a document signed in 1947 by tribes over the ⛰ in Geneva
You could instead agree to give each other more time to get to Deal, but so the ⛰🧙♂️ tells us, this turns the 🐑 on the archaic green benches into a bunch of baying monsters, although the 🧙♂️ also reminds us their bark is worse than their bite
The Council could go to the EP "tough" - we'll keep talking to the last minute, and EP has to stomach Provisional Application
There are two problems here.
First, the Council will be playing the UK's brinkmanship game - and the 27 Member States might be wondering what nasties are buried in the Treaty they didn't spot because time was short
Trying to compare these three sites is like comparing 🍎 and 🍊!
They're more professional operations, and I do not earn a cent from my blog. I fear I can't begin to match them for quality or quantity of content.
3/8
This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.
Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.
It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.
1/25
If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:
1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021
2/25
The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.
And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.
We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.
If there is one aspect of negotiation tactics people think they understand, it's the idea that forcing the timetable increases the chances of an agreement
The tick-tock, tick-tock of the clock forces the sides together
In Brexit it's not so simple
If the topic of negotiation is between two parties, and is binary in nature, a deadline does work
Take for example two football clubs that might (or might not) transfer a player on transfer deadline day - that's why you get a slew of deals at 5 minutes to midnight
The problem is that Brexit - in this phase - is only partially like that
Yes, there is a hard deadline - if there is nothing *ratified* by 31 December, there will be No Deal
Ireland's Taoiseach Martin says publicly that this is the deadline:
I'd not thought I'd need to be asking this, but here we are...
We know the way through to a Deal with no time, EU side (with provisional application, and a vote in the EP in January), but what about UK side?
The assumption has been that primary legislation would be needed, UK side, and this would need 2-3 days of parliamentary time. Could be reduced to 1 if absolutely necessary.
So with 3 days next week that *could* be used, and 3 between Christmas and New Year, 23 Dec is pretty much the latest a Deal could be struck without making a major procedural headache UK side?