Thread by @jonworth

Thinking further about this...

What the European Parliament has said takes us only as far as Sunday

There are 2 options:
1️⃣ A Deal by then can be ratified 28 Dec by EP
2️⃣ There's nothing by then

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1339545016033796096

What happens with 1️⃣ is pretty obvious

With 2️⃣ it's less obvious

The Council could go to the EP "tough" - we'll keep talking to the last minute, and EP has to stomach Provisional Application

There are two problems here.

First, the Council will be playing the UK's brinkmanship game - and the 27 Member States might be wondering what nasties are buried in the Treaty they didn't spot because time was short

Second, Provisional Application possibly opens up the Wallonia problem - i.e. if the EP can have a say after the fact, why can't other parliaments too? We're not sure that dog is going to bark, but it might...

So Provisional Application is only one way forward

You can bet that if there's no text to examine, the EP will escalate this - and demand more time

They will ask for a mini Treaty to get more time for scrutiny, and their rationale would be good - we want to do our job. And other parliaments might back them. Even some MPs

There are dangers here - the EP (or others) could use the extra time to find problems with the Deal, and this could drag and drag and drag

But to adapt a well known phrase, a Delayed Deal would be better than a Bad Deal, and the Council doesn't have much of a line against that

This might eventually boil down to the question: how determined are the Member States in the Council to just get this thing *done* as quickly as possible?

Until we know that, Provisional Application in case of further delay is not a foregone conclusion

Views of @DavidHenigUK @usherwood @StevePeers @tconnellyRTE and especially @NashSGC (who argued strongly earlier that Provisional Application would happen) would be v welcome

/ends