Jon Worth Profile picture
17 Dec, 7 tweets, 2 min read
What does the European Parliament saying it needs the text of a Brexit Deal by the end of Sunday - so as it could ratify it 28 December - really mean?

A quick 🧵

1/7
This is essentially the EP - so quiet and docile in this stage of Brexit - finally saying "enough is enough" in public.

2/7
At one level the EP looks ridiculous - trying to ratify something this complicated in just 4 days of EP time is foolish.

But I think, on balance, they have realised it's still better than the alternatives - that are worse.

3/7
These alternatives - PROVISIONAL APPLICATION, RETROACTIVE APPLICATION, GATT Article XXIV 5(c), CONTINGENCY MEASURES and/or STANDSTILL ARRANGEMENT - all have downsides

They're all explained in this thread:


4/7
So, just like with any deadline in Brexit, there's a good chance it will not be respected.

But what the EP has said is: let all this stretch beyond Sunday and your path to ratification becomes much more fraught and problematic.

5/7
Will this work?

There is of course the option that the Council (the Member States) just says to the EP sod you, we will apply the Treaty provisionally and you have to do your ratification in January. Tough. But the EP would extract some price for that.

6/7
We know there is some progress in Barnier-Frost talks. That the EP is imposing a firm-ish deadline could be used to help push those talks to a conclusion.

But if Sunday's deadline passes that doesn't mean No Deal is certain. It just makes the path to Deal that bit harder.

7/7

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More from @jonworth

18 Dec
I'm trying to reverse engineer 🇬🇧 Government's Brexit negotiation tactics

Let's assume for a moment:
1️⃣ UK Govt wants a Deal in principle
2️⃣ There's no real point where they could *not* concede on the substance
3️⃣ They fear ERG backlash, so want absolute minimum scrutiny
That means they want a Deal agreed *as late as possible*

But what day is that in practical terms?
There is no time period stipulated in House of Commons Standing Order No. 13 that governs recall - so that is not the show stopper publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201919/cm…
Read 9 tweets
18 Dec
What if... an extra month to get a Brexit Deal would be the best route?

Please don't scream "not again!" at me for proposing this, but it might prove to be the best bet - as I explain in a new blog post

Summary in 🧵

1/7

jonworth.eu/deal-or-no-dea…
It starts with the deadline for talks that the EP is seeking to impose for the end of Sunday

If that is respected, and a Deal is on the table, ratification can proceed. Timetable is ridiculously tight, but it can just about work...

But what if that deadline is missed?

2/7
The most talked-about route would then be Provisional Application - i.e. get the EP to vote after a Deal has entered into force. But there are numerous problems with that - not least that it prevents the European Parliament doing proper scrutiny.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
17 Dec
Confused by the current state of Brexit talks?

Don't fear!

I'm here to, errr, help in the only way I can - with a new #BrexitDiagram

End Game V3.0.0 Image
This one reflects current developments in talks in Brussels indicating progress towards a Deal - but the big question is whether that is before after Sunday 20 Dec... and if it's not it gets very messy
Outcomes
Deal all sorted by 31 Dec - 4️⃣0️⃣%
No Deal 1 Jan - 3️⃣9️⃣%
Uncertainty until January - 1️⃣0️⃣%
Deal, ratification Q1 - 9️⃣%
Deal, ratification later - 2️⃣%
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec
Thinking further about this...

What the European Parliament has said takes us only as far as Sunday

There are 2 options:
1️⃣ A Deal by then can be ratified 28 Dec by EP
2️⃣ There's nothing by then
What happens with 1️⃣ is pretty obvious

With 2️⃣ it's less obvious

The Council could go to the EP "tough" - we'll keep talking to the last minute, and EP has to stomach Provisional Application
There are two problems here.

First, the Council will be playing the UK's brinkmanship game - and the 27 Member States might be wondering what nasties are buried in the Treaty they didn't spot because time was short
Read 8 tweets
16 Dec
After COVID-related delays, and switching from an in-person event to a virtual one, finally the @euregistry .eu Web Awards are happening tonight!

Tag: #2020euWA

Live stream, 2000 CET: vimeo.com/event/512302

My blog is one of the 3 finalists in "House of .eu" category

1/8
There are 5 categories, and 3 finalists in each

In "House of .eu" I am up against Visit Italy visititaly.eu and New Eastern Europe neweasterneurope.eu @NewEastEurope

2/8
Trying to compare these three sites is like comparing 🍎 and 🍊!

They're more professional operations, and I do not earn a cent from my blog. I fear I can't begin to match them for quality or quantity of content.

3/8
Read 8 tweets
16 Dec
Both @MichelBarnier & @vonderleyen have spoken of a 'narrow path to a Deal' this week

But what *is* that narrow path?

Think of it like a narrow ⛰ path in Barnier's home region, Savoie 🇫🇷

Settle down, and let me tell you the story "The path to the Deal"
The path ahead lasts 15 days

At the end of the path lies Deal

Rocks or crevices might block the path, slowing you down

Worse still you could fall off the cliff to No Deal

Or you might run out of time to reach your destination, and need some extra bridge to Deal
The locals call the first part of your path POLITICAL AGREEMENT

It lasts between now and Friday 18 Dec

The rough map is known here - fisheries and level playing field are the bumps on the path. A farmer called Johnson keeps sovereignty rocks onto the path
Read 18 tweets

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