Thread by @jonworth

What does the European Parliament saying it needs the text of a Brexit Deal by the end of Sunday - so as it could ratify it 28 December - really mean?

A quick 🧵

1/7

This is essentially the EP - so quiet and docile in this stage of Brexit - finally saying "enough is enough" in public.

2/7

At one level the EP looks ridiculous - trying to ratify something this complicated in just 4 days of EP time is foolish.

But I think, on balance, they have realised it's still better than the alternatives - that are worse.

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These alternatives - PROVISIONAL APPLICATION, RETROACTIVE APPLICATION, GATT Article XXIV 5(c), CONTINGENCY MEASURES and/or STANDSTILL ARRANGEMENT - all have downsides

They're all explained in this thread:

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1338861719095898114

4/7

So, just like with any deadline in Brexit, there's a good chance it will not be respected.

But what the EP has said is: let all this stretch beyond Sunday and your path to ratification becomes much more fraught and problematic.

5/7

Will this work?

There is of course the option that the Council (the Member States) just says to the EP sod you, we will apply the Treaty provisionally and you have to do your ratification in January. Tough. But the EP would extract some price for that.

6/7

We know there is some progress in Barnier-Frost talks. That the EP is imposing a firm-ish deadline could be used to help push those talks to a conclusion.

But if Sunday's deadline passes that doesn't mean No Deal is certain. It just makes the path to Deal that bit harder.

7/7