Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Texas is set to gain three seats, and Republicans will likely try to expand their current 23R-13D edge to a 26R-13D edge - all while adding at least one new Hispanic majority seat and a new Dem seat in Austin. Here's how...
First, Rs would "pack" the districts held by Houston Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) #TX07 and Dallas Rep. Collin Allred (D) #TX32 w/ Dems, converting Fletcher's seat into a Hispanic majority seat. That would ease the creation of two new safe suburban R seats, #TX38 and #TX39.
Next, instead of dividing Austin six ways, Rs would create a new overwhelmingly blue Travis Co. seat (#TX37 here). The tradeoff? It would protect surrounding R districts against heavy D vote growth along the I-35 corridor for the next decade.
Fact: Biden won the presidency winning 85% of counties with a Whole Foods and 32% of counties with a Cracker Barrel - the widest gap ever.
Here's the breakdown of Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel counties won by past new presidents (all based on today's store locations):
1992: Clinton 60% WF, 40% CB = 20% gap
2000: Bush 43% WF, 75% CB = 32% gap
2008: Obama 78% WF, 36% CB = 42% gap
2016: Trump 22% WF, 74% CB = 52% gap
In this context, it's a remarkable achievement that Biden was able to reverse some Dem erosion in Cracker Barrel counties (i.e. places that tend to decide Midwest swing states).
There's no guarantee a future Dem w/ a different profile could hold the line in Erie, Saginaw, etc.
New: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) w/ a solid 70%-30% split out of Oneida Co. today, now trails Claudia Tenney (R) by just 2,089 votes by my count. #NY22 will be decided by ~4800 Chenango Co. absentees tomorrow, and likely to be decided by <500 votes either way. Wow.
Breaking: I've been made aware of a newly counted batch of Madison Co. challenged ballots that broke 91-14 Brindisi, as well as a slight update to Broome Co.'s election day totals. My latest #NY22 tally:
Tenney (R) 153,922 (+1,968)
Brindisi (D) 151,954
It's a jump ball.
Also, #NY22 sources tell me there are 5,165 ballots left to count in Chenango Co. (incl. 280 provisionals) and 32 provisionals left in Oneida, and that's it.
Bottom line: Brindisi (D) would need to win what's left by a margin of ~38% to win.