Thread by @jonworth

I'm trying to reverse engineer 🇬🇧 Government's Brexit negotiation tactics

Let's assume for a moment:
1️⃣ UK Govt wants a Deal in principle
2️⃣ There's no real point where they could *not* concede on the substance
3️⃣ They fear ERG backlash, so want absolute minimum scrutiny

That means they want a Deal agreed *as late as possible*

But what day is that in practical terms?

There is no time period stipulated in House of Commons Standing Order No. 13 that governs recall - so that is not the show stopper publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201919/cm…

The EU side might worry about the time between a Deal being agreed and a text emerging, but the UK is not going to be too bothered about that - as Johnson doesn't actually want any of his backbenchers to read the text anyway

Let's be generous that there will be 2 days of Parliamentary time dedicated to a Bill to implement this - 29 and 30 Dec, with New Year's Eve in reserve, and that 24-25-26 Dec do not count

So that leaves us with Wed 23 Dec or - at a push - Mon 28 Dec as the ideal time for when Johnson would like to have something agreed

That's at least 2 or 3 days *later* than the de facto cut off, 🇪🇺 side - that is explained in this thread

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1339890742509129728

What chance the UK Government is going to push this past the point that is sensible? 🤔

P.S. Please note the assumptions in the first tweet are NOT predictions! They're what-ifs, to be able to test one hypothesis. Thanks for pointing out the issue @Bonnie_Chuck!