It starts with the deadline for talks that the EP is seeking to impose for the end of Sunday
If that is respected, and a Deal is on the table, ratification can proceed. Timetable is ridiculously tight, but it can just about work...
But what if that deadline is missed?
2/7
The most talked-about route would then be Provisional Application - i.e. get the EP to vote after a Deal has entered into force. But there are numerous problems with that - not least that it prevents the European Parliament doing proper scrutiny.
3/7
So I instead argue that if the Sunday deadline is missed, the European Parliament should clearly and unequivocally argue for a mini Treaty to be agreed to give negotiators more time to find a deal.
All EU institutions, and indeed EU Member States, could live with this.
4/7
Could 🇬🇧 accept this?
Refusing an extension of the Transition Period is about the only thing Tory MPs all agree on, so UK might refuse - but EU can rightly say it made a generous offer that UK turned down. No Deal would be on Johnson alone.
5/7
I'm trying to reverse engineer 🇬🇧 Government's Brexit negotiation tactics
Let's assume for a moment:
1️⃣ UK Govt wants a Deal in principle
2️⃣ There's no real point where they could *not* concede on the substance
3️⃣ They fear ERG backlash, so want absolute minimum scrutiny
That means they want a Deal agreed *as late as possible*
But what day is that in practical terms?
There is no time period stipulated in House of Commons Standing Order No. 13 that governs recall - so that is not the show stopper publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201919/cm…
I'm here to, errr, help in the only way I can - with a new #BrexitDiagram
End Game V3.0.0
This one reflects current developments in talks in Brussels indicating progress towards a Deal - but the big question is whether that is before after Sunday 20 Dec... and if it's not it gets very messy
Outcomes
Deal all sorted by 31 Dec - 4️⃣0️⃣%
No Deal 1 Jan - 3️⃣9️⃣%
Uncertainty until January - 1️⃣0️⃣%
Deal, ratification Q1 - 9️⃣%
Deal, ratification later - 2️⃣%
The Council could go to the EP "tough" - we'll keep talking to the last minute, and EP has to stomach Provisional Application
There are two problems here.
First, the Council will be playing the UK's brinkmanship game - and the 27 Member States might be wondering what nasties are buried in the Treaty they didn't spot because time was short
Trying to compare these three sites is like comparing 🍎 and 🍊!
They're more professional operations, and I do not earn a cent from my blog. I fear I can't begin to match them for quality or quantity of content.
3/8
Think of it like a narrow ⛰ path in Barnier's home region, Savoie 🇫🇷
Settle down, and let me tell you the story "The path to the Deal"
The path ahead lasts 15 days
At the end of the path lies Deal
Rocks or crevices might block the path, slowing you down
Worse still you could fall off the cliff to No Deal
Or you might run out of time to reach your destination, and need some extra bridge to Deal
The locals call the first part of your path POLITICAL AGREEMENT
It lasts between now and Friday 18 Dec
The rough map is known here - fisheries and level playing field are the bumps on the path. A farmer called Johnson keeps sovereignty rocks onto the path