Some panic is setting in around Europe regarding the new mutant strain of #SARSCoV2 that has emerged in the UK.
In this quick thread I'm going to review findings presented to UK govt on 12/18 from scientific advisors re variant dubbed VUI-202012/01.
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nytimes.com/live/2020/12/2…
In this quick thread I'm going to review findings presented to UK govt on 12/18 from scientific advisors re variant dubbed VUI-202012/01.
MORE
nytimes.com/live/2020/12/2…
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1.) It spreads very fast human-2-human: the growth rate of VUI-202012/01 is 71% higher than other #SARSCoV2 variants.
2.) The Ro (est number of ppl a given infected individual will pass virus to) is up to 0.93 higher, so it was 1.2 in UK, w/mutant it's >2.
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1.) It spreads very fast human-2-human: the growth rate of VUI-202012/01 is 71% higher than other #SARSCoV2 variants.
2.) The Ro (est number of ppl a given infected individual will pass virus to) is up to 0.93 higher, so it was 1.2 in UK, w/mutant it's >2.
MORE
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3.) Based on how long it takes for fluorescent signals to show virus is reproducing, the mutant is 2Xs faster in human cells (decrease of ct value of around 2)
4.) And it makes about half a log more virus/cell infected (0.5 increase in median log10 inferred viral load)
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3.) Based on how long it takes for fluorescent signals to show virus is reproducing, the mutant is 2Xs faster in human cells (decrease of ct value of around 2)
4.) And it makes about half a log more virus/cell infected (0.5 increase in median log10 inferred viral load)
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4/ It seems to have an evolutionary advantage: "the emergence and subsequent dominance of VUI-202012/01 in a period of relatively high #COVID19 prevalence suggests VUI-202012/01 does have a selective advantage over other variants."
So it is likely to take over in UK.
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So it is likely to take over in UK.
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5/ Uh-oh:
"It was noted that VUI-202012/01 has demonstrated exponential growth during a period when national lockdown measures were in place."
Meaning, the mutant #SARSCoV2 has surged despite the UK's very stringent lockdown.
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"It was noted that VUI-202012/01 has demonstrated exponential growth during a period when national lockdown measures were in place."
Meaning, the mutant #SARSCoV2 has surged despite the UK's very stringent lockdown.
MORE
6/ People previously infected w/normal #SARSCoV2 are reinfected w/mutant:
"possibility variant is antigenically distinct...Four probable reinfections have been id'ed amongst 915 subjects w/this variant...work needed to compare this reinfection rate w/comparable data sets."
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"possibility variant is antigenically distinct...Four probable reinfections have been id'ed amongst 915 subjects w/this variant...work needed to compare this reinfection rate w/comparable data sets."
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7/ As of Dec18, "Within the UK, the variant is concentrated in the London, South East and East of England but has been detected in various parts of the UK."
Now isolated cases now found elsewhere, including other countries. Rapid dissemination.
nbcnews.com/news/world/bri…
Now isolated cases now found elsewhere, including other countries. Rapid dissemination.
nbcnews.com/news/world/bri…
8/
Many countries (including USA) are considering or have banned travelers from UK. But #SARSCoV2 history shows new strains are already widely spread by the time they are discovered, so travel bans are unlikely to help at all.
cnn.com/2020/12/21/pol…
Many countries (including USA) are considering or have banned travelers from UK. But #SARSCoV2 history shows new strains are already widely spread by the time they are discovered, so travel bans are unlikely to help at all.
cnn.com/2020/12/21/pol…
Just got this, genomic analysis:
virological.org/t/preliminary-…
virological.org/t/preliminary-…
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