Some panic is setting in around Europe regarding the new mutant strain of #SARSCoV2 that has emerged in the UK.
In this quick thread I'm going to review findings presented to UK govt on 12/18 from scientific advisors re variant dubbed VUI-202012/01.
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nytimes.com/live/2020/12/2…
2/
1.) It spreads very fast human-2-human: the growth rate of VUI-202012/01 is 71% higher than other #SARSCoV2 variants.
2.) The Ro (est number of ppl a given infected individual will pass virus to) is up to 0.93 higher, so it was 1.2 in UK, w/mutant it's >2.
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3/
3.) Based on how long it takes for fluorescent signals to show virus is reproducing, the mutant is 2Xs faster in human cells (decrease of ct value of around 2)
4.) And it makes about half a log more virus/cell infected (0.5 increase in median log10 inferred viral load)
MORE
4/ It seems to have an evolutionary advantage: "the emergence and subsequent dominance of VUI-202012/01 in a period of relatively high #COVID19 prevalence suggests VUI-202012/01 does have a selective advantage over other variants."
So it is likely to take over in UK.
MORE
5/ Uh-oh:
"It was noted that VUI-202012/01 has demonstrated exponential growth during a period when national lockdown measures were in place."

Meaning, the mutant #SARSCoV2 has surged despite the UK's very stringent lockdown.
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6/ People previously infected w/normal #SARSCoV2 are reinfected w/mutant:
"possibility variant is antigenically distinct...Four probable reinfections have been id'ed amongst 915 subjects w/this variant...work needed to compare this reinfection rate w/comparable data sets."
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7/ As of Dec18, "Within the UK, the variant is concentrated in the London, South East and East of England but has been detected in various parts of the UK."
Now isolated cases now found elsewhere, including other countries. Rapid dissemination.

nbcnews.com/news/world/bri…
8/
Many countries (including USA) are considering or have banned travelers from UK. But #SARSCoV2 history shows new strains are already widely spread by the time they are discovered, so travel bans are unlikely to help at all.

cnn.com/2020/12/21/pol…
Just got this, genomic analysis:
virological.org/t/preliminary-…

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

22 Dec
Detailed assessment of the new UK #SARSCoV2 variant by @WHO scientific team: who.int/csr/don/21-dec…
Key points in thread.
2/ The @WHO takes a global view:
"One of the mutations identified (N501Y) is altering an amino acid w/in the 6 key residues in the receptor binding domain...same mutation independently reported in several countries including South Africa & Australia...originated separately."
MORE Image
3/ This means that under selection pressure, as far apart as Cape Town, Sydney and London, #SARSCoV2 is forming mutations in the identical region of the spike protein that binds to human cells, and against which we make antibodies.
MORE Image
Read 10 tweets
20 Dec
ATTN: After easing lockdowns amid Holidays, PM #BorisJohnson today put much of the UK on strict lockdown: no Xmas, no NYsEve. In a mere week the number of #COVID19 cases has soared 40% & govt is blaming a new mutant form of #SARSCoV2 ...
cnn.com/2020/12/19/uk/…
MORE
2/
...that govt scientists say is 70% more contagious than the types of #SARSCoV2 now spreading in the USA. Fear of the new mutant form of #COVID19 prompted the Dutch govt to ban flights from UK & across the EU similar measures are considered. independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
MORE
3/ Last spring a mutant form of #SARSCoV2 emerged, slamming Italy & then New York. It proved more contagious. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Now, the UK variant, first seen in Sept. in a #COVID19 patient in Kent, has spread across UK. gov.uk/government/new…
MORE
Read 10 tweets
24 Nov
Incredibly detailed contact-tracing anal of #COVID19 spread, early 2020, Hunan, China holds vital info on controlling the #pandemic :
- household contacts pose the highest risk of transmission, followed by extended family, social & community contacts;
MORE
science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
2/
- Healthcare contacts have the lowest risk, suggesting that adequate protective measures were adopted by patients & healthcare staff in Hunan;
- risk of transmission in the household ^s during the lockdown period, likely due to physical confinement;
MORE
3/
- transmission risk decreases for community & social contacts during lockdown, due to prudent behaviors such as mask wearing, hand washing & coughing/sneezing etiquette;
- longer exposures are riskier, w/one additional day of exposure ^ing the transmission risk by 10%.
MORE
Read 4 tweets
16 Nov
On the heels of @pfizer #COVID19 #vaccine, @moderna_tx today announced its mRNA vax also works, but better -- 95% effective. And they say it is stable at normal freezer temperatures, unlike the Pfizer product.
investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
2/
Other diffs w/@pfizer vax -- @Moderna #COVID19 #vaccine was tested in >30K volunteers, a booster was required, and they were tested for #SARSCoV2 infection 14dys later (Pfizer was just 7 days).
They rpt more side effects.
MORE

investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
3/
The @moderna_tx press release states: "2% in frequency after the first dose included injection site pain (2.7%), & after the 2nd dose included fatigue (9.7%), myalgia (8.9%), arthralgia (5.2%), headache (4.5%), pain (4.1%) & erythema/redness at the injection site (2.0%)."
MORE
Read 10 tweets
11 Nov
Something's up.
Looks at this flurry of reports:
cnbc.com/2020/11/10/tru…
Pentagon elevated #Trump loyalists to powerful positions a day after the sudden termination of Secretary of Defense Mark #Esper.
And
marketwatch.com/story/trump-lo…
And
wsj.com/articles/white…
More
"Be Alarmed.Things are probably going to work out okay. But complacency in the defense of democracy is not a virtue."
by WILLIAM KRISTOL 
military.com/daily-news/202…
'Not a Damn Thing Anyone Can Do About It"
thedailybeast.com/infamous-maga-…
Infamous MAGA Figures Rush Into Purged Pentagon
Read 7 tweets
8 Nov
Assuming they aren't blocked by the Senate, @JoeBiden Cabinet appointments will be historic, and in nearly every case, spectacular. @politico list: politico.com/news/2020/11/0…
and @Independent list:
independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…
MORE
Biden Cabinet/2
Big #COVID19 understatement:
"Biden’s picks to lead the Dept of Health and Human Services @HHSGov and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention @CDCgov will inherit a massive public health crisis."
No solid CDC names yet, but...
MORE
nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/…
Biden Cab/3
Most sources agree list-toppers include:
@StateDept Sec. - @AmbassadorRice or Tony Blinken
@DOJPH Atty-General - #SallyYates or Doug Jones
@HHSGov - Vivek Murthy or Michelle Lujan Grisham
White House Chief of Staff - @RonaldKlain
MORE
Read 5 tweets

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