ATTN: After easing lockdowns amid Holidays, PM #BorisJohnson today put much of the UK on strict lockdown: no Xmas, no NYsEve. In a mere week the number of #COVID19 cases has soared 40% & govt is blaming a new mutant form of #SARSCoV2 ...
cnn.com/2020/12/19/uk/…
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2/
...that govt scientists say is 70% more contagious than the types of #SARSCoV2 now spreading in the USA. Fear of the new mutant form of #COVID19 prompted the Dutch govt to ban flights from UK & across the EU similar measures are considered. independent.co.uk/news/world/eur…
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3/ Last spring a mutant form of #SARSCoV2 emerged, slamming Italy & then New York. It proved more contagious. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
Now, the UK variant, first seen in Sept. in a #COVID19 patient in Kent, has spread across UK. gov.uk/government/new…
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4/
There's NO evidence the new UK #COVID19 variant causes worse illness. But it may explain the 40%/week surge in cases there. Dubbed VUI-202012/01, the variant features 17 mutations, including some in the spikes the virus uses to infect human cells.
MORE
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
5/
UK scientist: “This variant is strongly associated with where we are seeing increasing rates of #COVID19 . It’s a correlation, but we can’t say it is causation. But there is striking growth in this variant...we are worried, and it needs urgent investigation.”
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6/
Big concern, since the new UK form of #COVID19 has mutations in the spike protein, is that vaccines may not work well against it. UK scientists say they don't think it's a problem, but are aggressively studying the matter. bmj.com/content/371/bm…
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7/
According to gisaid.org
"the new variant, termed VUI 202012/01...was defined by multiple spike protein mutations (deletion 69-70, deletion 144-145, N501Y, A570D, D614G, P681H, T716I, S982A, D1118H)."
See: gisaid.org/references/gis…
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8/
More than 350,000 ppl in the UK have received the @pfizer #COVID19 #vaccine so far, and its proponents are at pains to reassure the public that it will protect them from the new mutant form of the virus.
theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/d…
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9/
Meanwhile, a completely separate, new mutant form of #SARSCoV2 emerged in mink populations around the world, especially in Denmark. It is readily transmitted between minks & their human handlers, but so far isn't a human-2-human spreader. varsity.co.uk/science/20338
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10/
So, 3 big changes in #SARSCoV2 since February, affecting spread of #COVID19 . Why is it happening? Because there's so much virus in the world now, spreading fast, ^ing likelihood of random mutations. Is the new mutant in the US? Who knows?
Wear your 😷& be careful this 🎄.

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

21 Dec
Some panic is setting in around Europe regarding the new mutant strain of #SARSCoV2 that has emerged in the UK.
In this quick thread I'm going to review findings presented to UK govt on 12/18 from scientific advisors re variant dubbed VUI-202012/01.
MORE
nytimes.com/live/2020/12/2…
2/
1.) It spreads very fast human-2-human: the growth rate of VUI-202012/01 is 71% higher than other #SARSCoV2 variants.
2.) The Ro (est number of ppl a given infected individual will pass virus to) is up to 0.93 higher, so it was 1.2 in UK, w/mutant it's >2.
MORE Image
3/
3.) Based on how long it takes for fluorescent signals to show virus is reproducing, the mutant is 2Xs faster in human cells (decrease of ct value of around 2)
4.) And it makes about half a log more virus/cell infected (0.5 increase in median log10 inferred viral load)
MORE Image
Read 9 tweets
24 Nov
Incredibly detailed contact-tracing anal of #COVID19 spread, early 2020, Hunan, China holds vital info on controlling the #pandemic :
- household contacts pose the highest risk of transmission, followed by extended family, social & community contacts;
MORE
science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
2/
- Healthcare contacts have the lowest risk, suggesting that adequate protective measures were adopted by patients & healthcare staff in Hunan;
- risk of transmission in the household ^s during the lockdown period, likely due to physical confinement;
MORE
3/
- transmission risk decreases for community & social contacts during lockdown, due to prudent behaviors such as mask wearing, hand washing & coughing/sneezing etiquette;
- longer exposures are riskier, w/one additional day of exposure ^ing the transmission risk by 10%.
MORE
Read 4 tweets
16 Nov
On the heels of @pfizer #COVID19 #vaccine, @moderna_tx today announced its mRNA vax also works, but better -- 95% effective. And they say it is stable at normal freezer temperatures, unlike the Pfizer product.
investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
2/
Other diffs w/@pfizer vax -- @Moderna #COVID19 #vaccine was tested in >30K volunteers, a booster was required, and they were tested for #SARSCoV2 infection 14dys later (Pfizer was just 7 days).
They rpt more side effects.
MORE

investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
3/
The @moderna_tx press release states: "2% in frequency after the first dose included injection site pain (2.7%), & after the 2nd dose included fatigue (9.7%), myalgia (8.9%), arthralgia (5.2%), headache (4.5%), pain (4.1%) & erythema/redness at the injection site (2.0%)."
MORE
Read 10 tweets
11 Nov
Something's up.
Looks at this flurry of reports:
cnbc.com/2020/11/10/tru…
Pentagon elevated #Trump loyalists to powerful positions a day after the sudden termination of Secretary of Defense Mark #Esper.
And
marketwatch.com/story/trump-lo…
And
wsj.com/articles/white…
More
"Be Alarmed.Things are probably going to work out okay. But complacency in the defense of democracy is not a virtue."
by WILLIAM KRISTOL 
military.com/daily-news/202…
'Not a Damn Thing Anyone Can Do About It"
thedailybeast.com/infamous-maga-…
Infamous MAGA Figures Rush Into Purged Pentagon
Read 7 tweets
8 Nov
Assuming they aren't blocked by the Senate, @JoeBiden Cabinet appointments will be historic, and in nearly every case, spectacular. @politico list: politico.com/news/2020/11/0…
and @Independent list:
independent.co.uk/news/world/ame…
MORE
Biden Cabinet/2
Big #COVID19 understatement:
"Biden’s picks to lead the Dept of Health and Human Services @HHSGov and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention @CDCgov will inherit a massive public health crisis."
No solid CDC names yet, but...
MORE
nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/…
Biden Cab/3
Most sources agree list-toppers include:
@StateDept Sec. - @AmbassadorRice or Tony Blinken
@DOJPH Atty-General - #SallyYates or Doug Jones
@HHSGov - Vivek Murthy or Michelle Lujan Grisham
White House Chief of Staff - @RonaldKlain
MORE
Read 5 tweets
6 Nov
All right, ENOUGH.
Death threats & attacks on #TonyFauci have been dreadful, but now #SteveBannon has ratcheted it WAY up, on live video, calling out his troops.
RT this thread w @greg_folkers & @NIHDirector on it
MORE
yahoo.com/entertainment/…
2/ Show your support for Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of @NIAID -- RT this thread w/ @greg_folkers @NIHDirector

Here's why:
#SteveBannon said on live video that firing Fauci & Wray (FBI Director) wasn’t enough:
“I actually want to go a step farther but..."
MORE
3/
"...the president is a kind-hearted man & a good man. I’d actually like to go back to the old times of Tudor England. I’d put the heads on pikes, right? I’d put them at the 2 corners of the @WhiteHouse as a warning to federal bureaucrats, you either get w/the program..."
MORE
Read 5 tweets

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