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Generic Boi

28 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read

#Schaeffler valuation

2018 quarterly sales (1100/ QTR)
2020 Corona quarter (430/ QTR)
Current quarter (1100/ QTR)

Sales, profit margin, EPS, all have recovered to previous glory. CMP's languishing because the crowd is busy chasing momentum in Pharma. Potential turnaround story.

DCF valuation.

2030 projected EPS at 14.6% discount rate= 960rs/share

2030 CMP= 960 x median PE(20): 19,200

Potential risks: Revenues (B2B) come from industrials & automobile sector. Both are cyclical in nature and rely on other cyclical factors like steel prices and interest rates.

All alpha comes from buying at the bottom & riding till tailwinds last. Keep <3% exposure in portfolio.

Took a hit during previous Auto slowdown in 2018-19. Could repeat this heart burn in any future trouble in the Auto sector. Conversely, if India manages to become a global contract manufacturing hub, this might even become a multibagger. Be open to both possibilities.

My personal take: I would prefer buying this ancillary company instead of investing in Maruti, Tata or M&M.

Duopoly in its segment (nearest competitor being NRB bearings).

Schaeffler (3% of portfolio) + Balkrishna tyres (4%) makes up my entire Automobile sector exposure.

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More from @techlunatic

Generic Boi

@techlunatic

29 Dec

#PolyCab valuation

Pre-Corona quarterly sales : 2200
Corona dip : 50%
Current quarterly sales : 2200

It has healed from the lockdown slump. NPM has improved from 8.64% to 10.48%

85% revenues come from wires. Leading market share in wires segment.

EPS has virtually doubled in 18 months, from 25rs/share in 2019 to 50rs/share now.

ROCE 29%. This is a high growth company.

2030 projected EPS (DCF discount rate 20.12%) : 326rs/share
2030 CMP= 6520 (Median PE (20) x 326)

Read 6 tweets

Generic Boi

@techlunatic

28 Dec

#VGuard valuation.

Pre-Covid quarter sales : 620
Corona quarter sales : 405
Current quarter sales : 620

NPM improved from 7.5% to 8.11%

Sales are back to previous glory, NPM has improved. Potential turnaround story.

DCF valuation :

2030 EPS projection (discounting rate of 17.2%) = 24.3rs/share

2030 CMP = Median PE (30) x 2030's EPS
2030 CMP = 729

4X growth (~14% CAGR) expected in a decade if bought at current price.

51% monopoly in electric stabilizers and UPS backups.

Read 6 tweets

Generic Boi

@techlunatic

28 Dec

Don't let the crowd's madness clout your judgment.

At any point, 40% up/down is speculative froth from momentum chasers. On the first -10% correction, the speculators all jump off the ship and the stock falls another 30%. 1-2-3 provides cleaner entry point for real investors.

@Goldsmithgunner

@Goldsmithgunner

Fundamentals aside, #3MIndia was available at 15.8k & 23k in a short time span. 46% price difference due to crowd behavior.

21k is still a good price. This will become apparent at 26k. THEN brokerages will invite people giving 29k target celebrating 10% upside.

Some big institutional buyer has punched in a massive buy volume of 55,000 stocks on Dec 1,2, at 21k. He also knows that PE is 144, still he's buying with confidence. And retail investors are busy trying to outsmart destiny by buying cheap stocks because Warren chacha said so.

Read 5 tweets

Generic Boi

@techlunatic

27 Dec

#Nestle valuation

History :

Sales trend :

Profit trend :

Read 5 tweets

Generic Boi

@techlunatic

26 Dec

My Excel sheet valuation of #Britannia

History :

Historical growth trends : 15%

Discounting future revenues at 15%, we get 2030 EPS projection as 327rs/share.

Multiplying this EPS with a pessimistic PE multiple of 30, we get 2030 CMP= 9810, and at a PE multiple of 50, we get CMP= 16,350.

4X to 5X growth from current rates.

Read 4 tweets

Generic Boi

@techlunatic

26 Dec

My Excel sheet based fundamental Analysis of #Kajaria

ZERO trendline/momentum, chart pattern, candle stick mumbo jumbo. Pure fundamentals.

Step 1 : Background checks👇

Step 2 : Sales analysis

Notice how the 'trendline' of sales shows a smooth, steady rise in revenues Y-o-Y, unlike the stock price which is deceptively zigzag, which clouts one's objective judgment.

Step 3 : Profit analysis

Notice how, unlike revenues, profit tends to be slightly more volatile, reason being the fluctuating raw material prices.

One can see why there was a breakout in 2014.

Hint : it wasn't because of "green bullish engulfing candle" or any other candle🤦‍♂️

Read 7 tweets

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