Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1
@imperialcollege First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…
@imperialcollege The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3
@imperialcollege This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
@imperialcollege But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here /5

gov.uk/government/spe…
@imperialcollege This thread by @dgurdasani1 unpicks the details...shows where things are headed. Tl;dr the point is that a more transmissible virus mutation is more dangerous than the virus becoming more lethal - but with same transmissibility. /6

@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 There are signs of pressure telling...like this @guardian story saying that Gov will include London boroughs in group of primaries in south that wont open /7
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian Apols - link here - still to be confirmed, but perhaps a belwether? /8

theguardian.com/education/2021…
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian In any event (and I write as a parent of a GCSE student who is v keen indeed that they should do their exams) what is clear is that the government is following this schools policy despite clear assertions from scientists that R will surge, given new variant infectiousness /9
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian At the same time - even before schools go back - the warning lights are starting to blink on the hospitals dashboard. Nightingales (for which it is not clear there are sufficient staff) are being talked about etc. /10
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian Just like with the Christmas changes, it seems hard - given where we are apparently headed - that the govt holds its line. And if does, for how long? And if numbers climb too high, well, the scientific warnings are there in black and white....tough weeks ahead. ENDS

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More from @pmdfoster

2 Jan
Can we squash this tiresome trope that teachers don't want schools to open? Or that arguments for closing schools are somehow preserve of liberal/wet child-eating commies....this is about hard choices as the #COVID19 is running out of control (R above 1) /1
A decision to shut schools impacts different groups, whose interests all have to be weighted. Children. Teachers. Parents. The Economy. The NHS. Let's take each in turn. /2
First children. Simple one this. They are not (except in rare cases) impacted by the virus, but clearly they can pass it on to those who are impacted. They desperately need to be in school (I write as father of three teens in big Brighton state school) and suffer if they aren't/3
Read 19 tweets
30 Dec 20
So. How will the mechanisms to regulate fair competition in the new UK-EU trade pact land in the real world?

Here are two very opposing takes from two serious observers - my colleague @alanbeattie

ft.com/content/77bed4…

and Prof Damian Chalmers of @UKandEU. /1
The real differences seems to turn on how easy it will be for either party to show “material impact” from a subsidy or regulatory change in order to apply tariffs. @alanbeattie says hard, citing similar clauses in US deals that have proved toothless /2
While Prof Chalmers argues the impact test is actually very weak - weaker than the distortion test required to justify intra-EU regulation - and will result in EU policing U.K. sovereignty from Brussels /3
Read 6 tweets
28 Dec 20
NEW: 💃🕺💃🕺☄️🔥🇪🇺🇬🇧
#Brexit realities. Fashion industry fears London will lose allure after Brexit transition. My latest via @FT ...it’s a story of a new world or marginal hassles, that will make a big difference at the margin/1
on.ft.com/3ryGi0f
@FT So this is the issue. After Jan 1 models will need Tier5 sponsorship to come to UK and UK models in EU will need to follow national rules of 27 different EU member states. That doesn't make it impossible - but it's a hassle /2
@FT So here for example are the rules for Italy....(h/t @SamuelMarcLowe ) give them a read and you can see how much has changed.../3

mazzeschi.it/visa-for-fashi…
Read 8 tweets
22 Dec 20
Good to see @Marthakearney on @BBCr4today taking @pritipatel to task over the numbers of lorries in Dover - now 1,500 in Stack (M20) and Manston airfield combined - rather more than 170 that @BorisJohnson said yesterday, baffling haulage groups /1
@Marthakearney @BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson She won't say whether lorry drivers will have to take a PCR test (long-winded, requires RNA extraction etc. 24-48hrs) rather than much faster (and less sensitive) lateral flow test. Short Strait will struggle to operates with PCR tests. You'd need one yesterday for tomorrow! /2
@Marthakearney @BBCr4today @pritipatel @BorisJohnson Because of the delays that have empty lorries already stuck in the queues, in an earlier interview British Retail Consortium @the_brc Andrew Opie said fresh food shortages would occur within days because lorries couldn't get back to Spain etc to reload /3
Read 10 tweets
21 Dec 20
Is a landing zone on fish slowly starting to emerge in #Brexit talks? EU states accept a 35% per cent in UK waters with 5-year transition? Latest with @jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker which chimes with this thread from well-connected @RaoulRuparel 1/thread

ft.com/content/90e8e0…
@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel Before anyone gets too excited, both sides say (I know) they are "far apart" on key issues...but it's also true that both sides have moved off their lines.

Recall we're talking about how much of the €650m of fish currently caught by EU boats in UK waters they should give up/2
@jimbrunsden @GeorgeWParker @RaoulRuparel The EU side started on 15% then 18% and lately 25%...which French are still unhappy about, we are told...but that equates to €158.68m....that's MILLION...bear in mind this FTA would set rules for bilateral EU-UK trade worth more than €650 BILLION. So this sprats n minnows /3
Read 12 tweets
16 Dec 20
BREAK: 🚨🚨🇫🇷🇬🇧🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🚙🚗🇫🇷🇬🇧🚢🚢🚢🚨🚨 The UK rejects Dover funding bid to double French passport booths via @FT - long queues ahead...as other ports also don’t get money they asked for to build #brexit border. Stay with me/1 thread
on.ft.com/3nnTpyQ
@FT So what is this all about? Well back in October the govt announced a £200m Port Infrastructure Fund - details below - for ports to get ready for the new trade processes for #Brexit border. Dealing with those 215m extra customs decs etc.. /2

gov.uk/government/new…
@FT Today we find out what everyone got - but it turns out that 54 ports asked for more than £450m - so a LOT have been bitterly disappointed. Not just Dover (on which more in a second)...they are furious the government is not willing to fully fund the very borders they mandated /3
Read 17 tweets

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